Near-Earth Asteroid Orbit Determination and Yarkovsky Effect Detection
R.J. Mc Intyre (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
D. Dirkx – Mentor (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
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Abstract
The Yarkovsky effect is a non-gravitational acceleration caused by the anisotropic thermal emission of rotating asteroids. It causes orbital drift and is critical for understanding asteroid evolution and assessing planetary defence risks.
Current research relies on closed-source, proprietary software and research publications often omit precise settings and methodological details, limiting scientific transparency and independent verification of results, and causing researchers to have to repeat the time-consuming process of selecting settings from scratch.
This thesis addresses these limitations by using Tudat — the free, open-source astrodynamics toolbox developed at Delft University of Technology — to transparently document and reproduce Yarkovsky results from literature.
Orbit estimations were performed for 347 asteroids using a weighted least-squares method including estimating the transverse acceleration parameter A2. Successful Yarkovsky detections were achieved for 281 asteroids (81%). The remaining targets yielded low signal-to-noise ratios. The determined A2 values correspond well with values found in literature — they are compatible with values from ESA's NEOCC in 93.2% of cases and JPL's SBDB in 97.7% of cases.