The future of green electrolytic hydrogen production in the Netherlands

Abstract

The transition to a carbon-neutral power system has become a global imperative, ever more driven due to recent events such as the energy crisis resulting from the Ukraine invasion. The Netherlands, devoted to the large-scale development of offshore wind and solar PV, see great potential in the use of hydrogen as a gas replacing energy carrier. A knowledge gap has been identified on what this role of electrolysis will be in the future energy system and more specifically, in what quantities electricity can and should be converted to hydrogen. This research aims to address these uncertainties and provide insights into the prudent capacity for green electrolytic hydrogen production in the Netherlands by 2030 and 2040.

To this end, a model of the combined electricity and hydrogen system of the Netherlands is constructed in Linny-R, an executable graphical representation language for Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). A vast array of output data from forecasting scenarios is gathered and consolidated to establish the spectrum of input variables. By systematically assessing the uncertainty, based on these ranges of input variables, and the impact, based on a sensitivity analysis, an experiment design is composed to encompass the most complete reflection of all uncertainties within computation limits. Numerous experiments are then conducted to generate outcomes, determine prudent capacity, identify influential uncertainties, and evaluate the impact of large-scale hydrogen storage on electrolysis potential.

The research results demonstrate that the potential for electrolysis increases from 8-12 GW in 2030 to 8-44 GW in 2040, indicating the cruciality of flexibility for the Dutch energy system in the coming years. The most prudent capacities for 2030 and 2040 are identified as 12 GW and 38 GW, respectively, with 9 GW being identified as the no-regret capacity to be installed by 2030. Therefore, the research recommends stimulating additional investments beyond the initial targets of 3-4 GW for 2030 to foster the Dutch hydrogen economy. Moreover, there is substantial risk of overinvestment associated with the prudent capacities, especially as a result of the growing uncertainty in 2040. Deploying additional flexible system capacity to prevent electrolysis from acting as a loss of load mitigation measure can lower the prudent capacity and reduce the risk of overinvestment. Furthermore, policy measures should focus on stimulating influential uncertainties such as hydrogen demand, peak residual load and hydrogen storage. Every additional 100GWh of underground hydrogen storage capacity enables 500MW of electrolysis potential. Moreover, the last few gigawatts of the prudent capacities will primarily serve as peak production plants with limited operational hours and margins starting at 11.00 EURO/kg required to recoup the investments.

Further research opportunities include incorporating geographical and grid aspects into the model, exploring profitable conditions for investments in the last few GW of electrolysis capacity, investigating the role of large-scale hydrogen storage, and studying the potential of electrolysis beyond national borders in the North Sea interconnected electricity generation hub.