Probabilistic Indicators for the Assessment of Reliability and Security of Future Power Systems

Abstract

To prevent large blackouts, reliability analysis and reliability management are of the utmost importance. While deterministic approaches and criteria have been used effectively in the past, probabilistic methods will be increasingly applied in the future as these provide more insight into the reliability of the transmission network. This chapter describes how probabilistic reliability analysis is used to study the reliability of large transmission networks. The following are two methods for reliability analysis: state enumeration and Monte Carlo simulation. The chapter introduces the concept of time horizons in the planning and operation of a power system. Several reliability indicators are commonly used in probabilistic reliability analysis. The chapter discusses these indicators. These reliability indicators can be directly related to security‐of‐supply, but can also be additional reliability indicators. The chapter describes a case study of the Dutch transmission network.