Climate Impact Assessment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels
A scenario based assessment of the climate impact of sustainable aviation fuels in the year 2125
P.J. Koopdonk (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
F. Yin – Mentor (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
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Abstract
Aviation is a significant contributor to climate change, and Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) offer a promising mitigation strategy. This study evaluates the impact of SAF usage on near-surface temperature change by 2125, considering both CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions. Two SAF scenarios are compared to a baseline kerosene scenario: the ReFuel EU mandate scenario and a scenario without technologically mature Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels. Using a 3D emission inventory and the AirClim climate impact model, simulations show that the ReFuel EU scenario reduces temperature change by 57.03 mK (26.2%), while the limited SAF scenario achieves only 26.60 mK (12.2%). Results highlight the importance of non-CO₂ climate agents and background emissions. A regional analysis indicates the greatest temperature reduction per kg of SAF occurs in South and Middle America. Findings suggest that SAF can significantly reduce aviation’s climate impact, but its effectiveness depends on fuel type, availability, and strategic allocation.