Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels
Khin Nawarat (University of Twente, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)
Johan Reyns (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Deltares, TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
Michalis I. Vousdoukas (University of the Aegean)
Eamonn Mulholland (Department for Transport UK)
Kees van Ginkel (Deltares, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Luc Feyen (European Commission - Joint Research Centre)
Roshanka Ranasinghe (University of Twente, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Deltares)
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Abstract
European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries.
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