European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries.

Coastal sediment budgets are a foundational source of information for coastal management decision-making. To quantify these budgets, coastal systems are often divided into “cells” based on jurisdictional boundaries or topography. However, such divisions do not account for the pathways that water and sediment particles actually take. In this study we quantify cell boundaries that emerge from numerical simulations of sand and water pathways in a barrier island-lagoon system in the Netherlands (the Western Wadden Sea). By quantifying Lagrangian particle pathways as a network, we can derive internally well-connected but externally disconnected modules. Here we show that large (O(10 km)) coherent modules develop from flow patterns at tidal timescales (12.5 h), and are persistent through varying tide and weather conditions. Conversely, modules derived from 100 µm sand pathways are less coherent and highly spatially fragmented. The difference in patterns likely relates to the longer timescales associated with sediment transport. These emergent patterns could be used to better inform coastal and estuarine management by providing physics-based sediment cell boundaries.

Mangrove forests’ restoration has gained traction as a sustainable solution to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions and to provide ecosystem services, such as coastal protection. Restoration projects are often informed by expert judgment rather than a quantitative understanding and have a high failure rate. Monitoring mangrove restoration performance may take decades and has a strong case study dependency. To optimise restoration strategies, we developed an individual-based mangrove and process-based hydro-morphodynamic model to simulate multi-species mangrove forest trajectories, including the physical environment’s feedback. We find a significant impact of planting zonation on the mudflat behaviour, with seaward erosion and in-forest-landward deposition. Planting mangroves close to mean sea level decreases carbon storage potential due to increased mudflat erosion. Configuring planting in multiple patches proves beneficial to mangrove biomass development, expansion, and sediment accumulation. Combined with sound monitoring, the developed tool can potentially optimize planned mangrove restoration strategies.

In developing effective and resilient coastal management strategies, it is critical to consider the coastline's natural spatial and temporal variation. This is particularly relevant for Guyana's wave-exposed mud-dominated coastline, where longshore migrating subtidal mudbanks create a 30-year cycle of accretion and erosion of the coastline, driven by the presence or absence of a mudbank. These cyclic dynamics are integral to the broader coastal system, shaping the development of both the mudflat profile and the opportunistic mangrove vegetation. This study aims to enhance our understanding of the behaviour of mangrove-mudflat systems on the Guyana coast by examining: (1) intertidal sediment dynamics and vegetation dynamics on a mangrove/mudflat profile, (2) the morphodynamics associated with the cyclically varying forcing conditions and (3) the processes involved in the morphodynamic response under sea level rise. We utilized an open-source, 1D, cross-shore model (Mflat) that couples tidal flow, wave action, sediment transport and morphodynamic development to vegetation dynamics, including temporal and spatial growth of the tree population and bio-accumulation. The mudflat dynamics are highly determined by the cyclically varying sediment influx, wave height and period, whereas the mangrove vegetation tends to follow the evolution of suitable intertidal areas rather than impacting morphodynamic changes. An important finding is that the time scale of the cyclically varying boundary conditions (30 years) is much shorter than the system's characteristic morphodynamic adaptation timescale, so no formal equilibrium is reached for a given boundary condition. The cyclic mangrove-mudflat system shows considerable resilience to sea level rise due to the abundance of mud, though it gradually drowns under larger sea level rise scenarios. These insights on the survivability of these intertidal systems are relevant to many other mangrove-mudflats worldwide.

This study presents a 3D process-based morphodynamic model that uses orthogonal unstructured grids. It is designed for coastal applications involving complex bathymetry and varying spatial scales. The model extends the Delft3D-FM framework by incorporating full 3D representation of wave, wind, and density-driven effects in the short-wave-averaged, non-linear shallow water equations. The framework includes expressions for wave and roller effects on flow forcing, turbulence, and bed shear stress, and integrates sediment transport and morphodynamic feedback. Multi-fraction sediment transport is supported, and the model tracks stratigraphy through a layered bed composition framework. Features such as infragravity wave dynamics, sediment mass slumping, swash zone slope nudging and morphological acceleration techniques are incorporated to better capture long-term morphological trends as well as storm erosion. The framework supports in-memory model coupling and is fully parallelized, enabling efficient, large-scale simulations. Model verifications presented here include analytical benchmarks and comparisons with laboratory and field observations, demonstrating reliable reproduction of wave–current interaction, sediment transport rates, and bed level changes. The model has the potential to bridge the gap between high-resolution event-scale modelling and long-term morphodynamic prediction, offering a flexible framework to study coastal sedimentary dynamics.

Fluvial sediment supply towards the coast has been the subject of extensive research. Important aspects relate to the impact of sediment retaining hydropower dams, potential delta progradation, coastal sediment supply and delta vulnerability to sea level rise. Once validated, process-based models provide a valuable tool to address these aspects and offer detailed information on sediment pathways, distribution and budget in specific systems. This study aims to advance the understanding of the sediment dynamics and sediment budget in the Mekong Delta system. We developed a process-based model (Delft3D FM) that allows for coupling 2D area grids to 1D network grids. The flexible mesh describes both wide river sections and channel irrigation and drainage networks present in the Mekong Delta. We calibrated the model against observed discharge, salinity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and sediment flux. The model was able to skillfully describe seasonal variations of SSC and hysteresis of SSC and water discharge caused by the Tonle Sap Lake induced flow patterns and seasonally varying bed sediment availability in the channels. Model results suggest that the Mekong River delivers an amount of sediment, towards the delta which is much lower than the common estimate of 160 Mt/year. About 23% of the modeled total sediment load at Kratie reaches the sea. Our modeling approach is a useful tool to assess sediment dynamics under strategic anthropogenic interventions or climate change scenarios.

This paper presents an efficient, implicit, unstructured-grid wave propagation model, SnapWave (Roelvink, 2025), which provides a simple and fast way to predict nearshore wave conditions at specified locations, for coastline models such as ShorelineS, or wave fields and their forcing of flows, to be used in other models, such as Delft3D-FM, XBeach or SFINCS. We describe the numerical method and verify the correct implementation by comparing against analytical solutions for schematized cases. We then test the model application in four different coastal settings by propagating time series of ERA5 hourly wave conditions to observation points nearshore and through the surf zone. We conclude that the model is robust, easy to set up and fast, and can be applied on open coasts worldwide.

Sand waves, large scale dynamic bedforms, which are found on sandy, shallow seabeds worldwide, present an immediate risk to offshore structures, raising a pressing need for predicting related bed level dynamics on decadal timescales. Numerical models can help us understand and predict sand wave dynamics, but have shown difficulties with preserving sand wave shapes. Using the process-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh model, we have found that the choice of sediment transport formulation has a significant effect on the stability of sand wave shapes. The widely used Van Rijn (1993) sediment transport formulation predicts relatively high bed load transport rates, thereby raising a need for more dominant slope-induced transport. The simulations revealed that the Van Rijn (2007) formulation, which predicts relatively lower transport rates, and thus allows for lower bed slope-induced transports, is better capable of preserving the steep slopes of sand waves, while limiting sand wave growth. By considering various shape characteristics in our model assessment, more insight is gained about the improvements as well as adverse effects of changes in the parameterization of physical processes. These characteristics show that only with the less dominant bed slope-induced transport the crest levels are stable, while trough levels still lower slowly over time. This indicates that local processes are responsible for limiting the growth of sand waves and the importance of slope-induced transport has been overstated in previous works. With the adapted, non-upscaled set-up, the evolution of sand waves over multiyear timescales is represented well in the model compared to bathymetric field data for two contrasting sand wave field sites.

An unstructured hydrodynamic model is presented that is able to simulate 2D nearshore hydrodynamics on the wave group scale. A non-stationary wave driver with directional spreading, with physics similar to XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009) is linked to an improved and extended version of the existing unstructured flow solver Delft3D–FM (Kernkamp et al., 2011; Martyr-Koller et al., 2017). The model equations are discretised on meshes consisting of triangular and rectangular elements. The model allows for coverage of the model domain with locally optimised resolution to accurately resolve the dominant processes, yet with a smaller total number of grid cells. The model also allows a larger explicit time step, compared to structured models with similar functionality. The model reliably reproduces measured datasets of water levels, sea/swell and low frequency wave heights in laboratory and field conditions, and is as such widely deployable in a variety of simple and complex coastal settings to study nearshore hydrodynamics.

As climate-change-driven extremes potentially make coastal areas more vulnerable, mangroves can help sustainably protect the coasts. There is a substantial understanding of both mangrove dynamics and hydro-morphodynamic processes. However, the knowledge of complex eco-geomorphic interactions with physical-environmental stressors remains lacking. We introduce a novel coupled modelling approach consisting of an individual-based mangrove (mesoFON) and a process-based hydromorphodynamic model (Delft3D-FM). This coupled model is unique because it resolves spatiotemporal processes, including tidal, seasonal, and decadal environmental changes (water level, flow, sediment availability, and salinity) with full life-stages (propagule, seedling, sapling, mature) mangrove interaction. It allows us to mechanistically simulate forest expansion, retreat, and colonisation influenced by and with feedback on physical-environmental drivers. The model is applied in a schematized mixed fluvial-tidal deltaic mangrove forest in dominantly muddy sediment inspired by the prograding delta of Porong, Indonesia. Model results successfully reproduce observed mangrove extent development, age-height relationship, and morphodynamic delta features.

Coastal mangroves, thriving at the interface between land and sea, provide robust flood risk reduction. Projected increases in the frequency and magnitude of climate impact drivers such as sea level rise and wind and wave climatology reinforce the need to optimize the design and functionality of coastal protection works to increase resilience. Doing so effectively requires a sound understanding of the local coastal system. However, data availability particularly at muddy coasts remains a pronounced problem. As such, this paper captures a unique dataset for the Guyana coastline and focuses on relations between vegetation (mangrove) density, wave attenuation rates and sediment characteristics. These processes were studied along a cross-shore transect with mangroves fringing the coastline of Guyana. The data are publicly available at the 4TU Centre for Research Data (4TU.ResearchData) via https://doi.org/10.4121/c.5715269 (Best et al., 2022) where the collection Advancing Resilience Measures for Vegetated Coastline (ARM4VEG), Guyana, comprises of six key datasets.

Suspended sediment concentrations typically exceeded 1 g L−1 with a maximum of 60 g L−1, implying that we measured merely fluid-mud conditions across a 1 m depth. Time series of wind waves and fluid-mud density variations, recorded simultaneously with tide elevation and suspended sediment data, indicate that wave–fluid-mud interactions in the nearshore may be largely responsible for the accumulation of fine, muddy sediment along the coast. Sediment properties reveal a consolidated underlying bed layer. Vegetation coverage densities in the Avicennia-dominated forest were determined across the vertical with maximum values over the first 20 cm from the bed due to the roots and pneumatophores.

Generalized total wave attenuation rates in the forest and along the mudflat were between 0.002–0.0032 m−1 and 0.0003–0.0004 m−1 respectively. Both the mangroves and the mudflats have a high wave-damping capacity. The wave attenuation in the mangroves is presumably dominated by energy losses due to vegetation drag, since wave attenuation due to bottom friction and viscous dissipation on the bare mudflats is significantly lower than wave dissipation inside the mangrove vegetation. Data collected corroborate the coastal defence function of mangroves by quantifying their contribution to wave attenuation and sediment trapping. The explicit linking of these properties to vegetation structure facilitates modelling studies investigating the mechanisms determining the coastal defence capacities of mangroves.

This article presents a novel approach to explore mangrove dynamics on a prograding delta by integrating unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite imagery. The Porong Delta in Indonesia has a unique geographical setting with rapid delta development and expansion of the mangrove belt. This is due to an unprecedented mud load from the LUSI mud volcanic eruption. The mangrove dynamics analysis combines UAV-based Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry and 11 years (2009–2019) satellite imagery cloud computing analysis by Google Earth Engine (GEE). Our analysis shows unique, high-spatiotemporal-resolution mangrove extent maps. The SfM pho-togrammetry analysis leads to a 3D representation of the mangrove canopy and an estimate of mangrove biophysical properties with accurate height and individual position of the mangroves stand. GEE derived vegetation indices resulted in high (three-monthly) resolution mangrove coverage dynamics over 11 years (2009–2019), yielding a value of more than 98% for the overall, producer and consumer accuracy. Combining the satellite-derived age maps and the UAV-derived spatial tree structure allowed us to monitor the mangrove dynamics on a rapidly prograding delta along with its structural attributes. This analysis is of essential value to ecologists, coastal managers, and poli-cymakers.

Building high dykes is a common measure of coping with floods and plays an important role in agricultural management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. However, the construction of high dykes causes considerable changes in hydrodynamics of the Mekong River. This paper aims to assess the impact of the high-dyke system on water level fluctuations and tidal propagation in the Mekong River branches. We developed a coupled 1-D to 2-D unstructured grid using Delft3D Flexible Mesh software. The model domain covered the Mekong Delta extending to the East (South China Sea) and West (Gulf of Thailand) seas, while the scenarios included the presence of high dykes in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ), the Plain of Reeds (PoR) and the Trans-Bassac regions. The model was calibrated for the year 2000 high-flow season. Results show that the inclusion of high dykes changes the percentages of seaward outflow through the different Mekong branches and slightly redistributes flow over the low-flow and high-flow seasons. The LXQ and PoR high dykes result in an increase in the daily mean water levels and a decrease in the tidal amplitudes in their adjacent river branches. Moreover, the different high-dyke systems not only have an influence on the hydrodynamics in their own branch, but also influence other branches due to the Vam Nao connecting channel. These conclusions also hold for the extreme flood scenarios of 1981 and 1991 that had larger peak flows but smaller flood volumes. Peak flood water levels in the Mekong Delta in 1981 and 1991 are comparable to the 2000 flood as peak floods decrease and elongate due to upstream flooding in Cambodia. Future studies will focus on sediment pathways and distribution as well as climate change impact assessment.

Building high dykes is a common measure of coping with floods and plays an important role in agricultural management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. However, the construction of high dykes causes considerable changes in hydrodynamics of the Mekong River. This paper aims to assess the impact of the high-dyke system on water level fluctuations and tidal propagation in the Mekong River branches. We developed a coupled 1-D to 2-D unstructured grid using Delft3D Flexible Mesh software. The model domain covered the Mekong Delta extending to the East (South China Sea) and West (Gulf of Thailand) seas, while the scenarios included the presence of high dykes in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ), the Plain of Reeds (PoR) and the Trans-Bassac regions. The model was calibrated for the year 2000 high-flow season. Results show that the inclusion of high dykes changes the percentages of seaward outflow through the different Mekong branches and slightly redistributes flow over the low-flow and high-flow seasons. The LXQ and PoR high dykes result in an increase in the daily mean water levels and a decrease in the tidal amplitudes in their adjacent river branches. Moreover, the different high-dyke systems not only have an influence on the hydrodynamics in their own branch, but also influence other branches due to the Vam Nao connecting channel. These conclusions also hold for the extreme flood scenarios of 1981 and 1991 that had larger peak flows but smaller flood volumes. Peak flood water levels in the Mekong Delta in 1981 and 1991 are comparable to the 2000 flood as peak floods decrease and elongate due to upstream flooding in Cambodia. Future studies will focus on sediment pathways and distribution as well as climate change impact assessment.

With large-scale human interventions and climate change unfolding as they are now, coastal changes at decadal timescales are not limited to incremental modifications of systems that are fixed in their general geometry, but often show significant changes in layout that may be catastrophic for populations living in previously safe areas. This poses severe challenges that are difficult to meet for existing models. A new free-form coastline model, ShorelineS, is presented that is able to describe large coastal transformations based on relatively simple principles of alongshore transport gradient driven changes as a result of coastline curvature, including under highly obliquely incident waves, and consideration of splitting and merging of coastlines, and longshore transport disturbance by hard structures. An arbitrary number of coast sections is supported, which can be open or closed and can interact with each other through relatively straightforward merging and splitting mechanisms. Rocky parts or structures may block wave energy and/or longshore sediment transport. These features allow for a rich behavior including shoreline undulations and formation of spits, migrating islands, merging of coastal shapes, salients and tombolos. The main formulations of the (open-source) model, which is freely available at www.shorelines.nl, are presented. Test cases show the capabilities of the flexible, vector-based model approach, while field validation cases for a large-scale sand nourishment (the Sand Engine; 21 million m3) and an accreting groin scheme at Al-Gamil (Egypt) show the model’s capability of computing realistic rates of coastline change as well as a good representation of the shoreline shape for real situations.

Prediction of the shoreline response behind offshore breakwaters is essential for coastal protection projects. Due to the complexity of the processes behind the breakwaters (e.g., wave diffraction, currents, longshore transport), detailed modelling needs high computational efforts. Therefore, simplifying the process effect in a simpler coastline model could be efficient. In this study, the coastline evolution model ShorelineS is used. A new routine was implemented in the model to adjust the wave heights and angles behind the offshore breakwaters. Two approaches from the literature and a newly introduced one were tested in this study. The model free grid system was used to simply track the breaker line; such an advantage also helped to form tombolo, which is not common for these types of models. The tests showed promising results for single and multi breakwaters systems; however, the newly introduced approach still needs further testing and refinement for better performance and less computational cost.

This study evaluates the patterns and effects of relative sea-level rise on the tidal circulation of the basin of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon using a process-based model that is solved on an unstructured mesh. To predict the changes in the lagoon tidal circulation in the year 2100, the model is forced by tides and a static sea level. The bathymetry and the basin geometry are updated in response to sea-level rise for three morphological response scenarios: no bed updating, barrier island rollover, and basin infilling. Model results indicate that sea-level rise (SLR) will change the baseline current velocity patterns inside the lagoon over the ~100-year study period, due to a strong reduction in the area of the intertidal basin. The basin infilling scenario is associated with the most important adjustments of the tidal circulation (i.e., increases in the flood velocities and delays in the ebb tide), together with an increase in the cumulative discharges of the tidal inlets. Under sea-level rise and in the basin infilling scenario, the salt marshes and tidal flats experience increases in the tidal range and current asymmetry. Basin infilling changes the sediment flushing capacity of the lagoon, leading to the attenuation of the flood dominance in the main inlet and the strengthening of the flood dominance in the two secondary inlets. The predictions resulting from these scenarios provide very useful information on the long-term evolution of similar coastal lagoons that experience varying degrees of SLR. This study highlights the need for research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of SLR on lagoon systems, thus enabling the development of effective adaptation strategies.

Fluvial sediment is the major source for the formation and development of the Mekong Delta. This paper aims to analyse the dynamics of suspended sediment and to investigate the roles of different processes in order to explore flux pattern changes. We applied modelling on two scales, comprising a large-scale model (the whole delta) to consider the upstream characteristics, particularly the Tonle Sap Lake's flood regulation, and a smaller-scale model (tidal rivers and shelf) to understand the sediment processes on the subaqueous delta. A comprehensive comparison to in-situ measurements and remote sensing data demonstrated that the model is capable of qualitatively simulating sediment dynamics on the subaqueous delta. It estimates that the Mekong River supplied an amount of 41.5 mil tons from April 2014 to April 2015. A substantial amount of sediment delivered by the Mekong River is deposited in front of the river mouths in the high flow season and resuspended in the low flow season. A sensitivity analysis shows that waves, baroclinic effects and bed composition strongly influence suspended sediment distribution and transport on the shelf. Waves in particular play an essential role in sediment resuspension. The development of this model is an important step towards an operational model for scientific and engineering applications, since the model is capable of predicting tidal propagation and discharge distribution through the main branches, and in predicting the seasonal SSC and erosion/deposition patterns on the shelf, while it is forced by readily available inputs: discharge at Kratie (Cambodia), GFS winds, ERA40 reanalysis waves, and TPXO 8v1 HR tidal forcing.

The Cempedak Bay beach stability assessment was performed by comparing the spatial and temporal pattern of beach variability before and after sand nourishment. The analysis of temporal sand volume patterns shows that the beach has lost about 6% or 10 000 m³ volume of sand which is equivalent to 4m³/m per year from the nourishment zone over the 2·5-year monitoring period. The present shoreline recession rate is established to be 1.7 m/year (valid for data set of March 2005 to July 2007). The analysis of seasonal changes is assessed through temporal beach volume patterns, which indicate that shoreline variability can be characterised by an alongshore rhythmic pattern of alternating seasonal behaviour. A simple seasonal transport pattern is proposed to account for alternating erosion and accretion. The temporal distribution pattern of beach level changes reveals the existence of a nodal point around 40 to 50 m offshore, which is influenced by the monsoonal system. The spatial distribution of the beach width indicates that the northern beach area is wider whereas the southern beach area experiences lower beach width, which is coincident with the temporal pattern of sand volume and beach profile changes. A slight beach rotation does exist attributed to a seasonal or periodic shift in wave climate, in particular wave direction. The planform stability of the beach is tricky to determine due to model uncertainties, especially the selection of the diffraction point. This baseline study is important towards the development of a process-based model in order to investigate the morphological nearshore behaviour of headland bay beaches.