Building high dykes is a common measure of coping with floods and plays an important role in agricultural management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. However, the construction of high dykes causes considerable changes in hydrodynamics of the Mekong River. This paper aims to assess the impact of the high-dyke system on water level fluctuations and tidal propagation in the Mekong River branches. We developed a coupled 1-D to 2-D unstructured grid using Delft3D Flexible Mesh software. The model domain covered the Mekong Delta extending to the East (South China Sea) and West (Gulf of Thailand) seas, while the scenarios included the presence of high dykes in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ), the Plain of Reeds (PoR) and the Trans-Bassac regions. The model was calibrated for the year 2000 high-flow season. Results show that the inclusion of high dykes changes the percentages of seaward outflow through the different Mekong branches and slightly redistributes flow over the low-flow and high-flow seasons. The LXQ and PoR high dykes result in an increase in the daily mean water levels and a decrease in the tidal amplitudes in their adjacent river branches. Moreover, the different high-dyke systems not only have an influence on the hydrodynamics in their own branch, but also influence other branches due to the Vam Nao connecting channel. These conclusions also hold for the extreme flood scenarios of 1981 and 1991 that had larger peak flows but smaller flood volumes. Peak flood water levels in the Mekong Delta in 1981 and 1991 are comparable to the 2000 flood as peak floods decrease and elongate due to upstream flooding in Cambodia. Future studies will focus on sediment pathways and distribution as well as climate change impact assessment.

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma^-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma^-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma^-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma^-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

This paper presents a new model, using existing consolidation theory, suitable for long-term morphodynamic simulations; we refer to the dynamic equilibrium consolidation (DECON) model. This model is applicable for muddy systems at small suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations, where the sedimentation rates are smaller than the consolidation rates and small fractions of sand can be accounted for. Thus, the model assumes quasi-equilibrium of the consolidating bed. It is derived from the full consolidation (Gibson) equation and is implemented in a mixed Lagrangian-Eulerian bed model guaranteeing stable and non-negative solutions, while numeric diffusion remains small. The erosion and deposition of sand and mud is accounted for, whereas internal mixing (e.g., bioturbation) is modeled through diffusion. The parameter settings for the new consolidation model (the hydraulic conductivity, consolidation coefficient, and strength) can be obtained from consolidation experiments in the laboratory. The model reproduces one-dimensional consolidation experiments and the qualitative behavior of erosion and deposition in a tidal flume. The DECON model was also applied to more natural conditions, simulating fine sediment dynamics on a schematized mud flat and in a schematized tidal basin under tide and wave forcing. The computational results of the mudflat simulations compared well with the simulations with the full Gibson equation. For the tidal basin simulations, DECON predicted the expected landward tidal transport of fine sediment during tide-dominated conditions, while the tidal basin withstood erosion during the more energetic wave-dominated periods. Computational times for the morphodynamic simulations of the tidal basin example without waves increased by a factor of 5 when consolidation was included. For the simulations with waves, this increase in computational times was only a factor of 2, as simulations with waves are always expensive. Applying a complete consolidation model would be prohibitive. The DECON model therefore serves as a useful tool to simulate fine-sediment dynamics in complex wave- and tide-dominated conditions, as well as the effects of seasonal variations.

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Peak river flows transport fine sediment, nutrients, and contaminants that may deposit in the estuary. This study explores the importance of peak river flows on sediment dynamics with special emphasis on channel network configurations. The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, which is connected to San Francisco Bay (California, USA), motivates this study and is used as a validation case. Besides data analysis of observations, we applied a calibrated process-based model (D-Flow FM) to explore and analyze high-resolution (∼100 m, ∼1 h) dynamics. Peak river flows supply the vast majority of sediment into the system. Data analysis of six peak flows (between 2012 and 2014) shows that on average, 40 % of the input sediment in the system is trapped and that trapping efficiency depends on timing and magnitude of river flows. The model has 90 % accuracy reproducing these trapping efficiencies. Modeled deposition patterns develop as the result of peak river flows after which, during low river flow conditions, tidal currents are not able to significantly redistribute deposited sediment. Deposition is quite local and mainly takes place at a deep junction. Tidal movement is important for sediment resuspension, but river induced, tide residual currents are responsible for redistributing the sediment towards the river banks and to the bay. We applied the same forcing for four different channel configurations ranging from a full delta network to a schematization of the main river. A higher degree of network schematization leads to higher peak-sediment export downstream to the bay. However, the area of sedimentation is similar for all the configurations because it is mostly driven by geometry and bathymetry.

We hindcast a 110 year period (1860-1970) of morphodynamic behavior of the Western Scheldt estuary by means of a 2-D, high-resolution, process-based model and compare results to a historically unique bathymetric data set. Initially, the model skill decreases for a few decades. Against common perception, the model skill increases after that to become excellent after 110 years. We attribute this to the self-organization of the morphological system which is reproduced correctly by the numerical model. On time scales exceeding decades, the interaction between the major tidal forcing and the confinement of the estuary overrules other uncertainties. Both measured and modeled bathymetries reflect a trend of decreasing energy dissipation, less morphodynamic activity, and thus a more stable morphology over time, albeit that the estuarine adaptation time is long (approximately centuries). Process-based models applied in confined environments and under constant forcing conditions may perform well especially on long (greater than decades) time scales.

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

Rivers supply sediment to estuaries and alter estuarine tidal wave regimes. However, the long-term (>. century) impact of seasonally varying river discharges on estuarine morphodynamics is not well understood. Process-based models are useful tools to analyze these morphodynamic processes. This study aims to explore modeling techniques to efficiently include the impact of discharge seasonality on long-term estuarine morphodynamic development by a process-based morphodynamic model. Inspired by the dimensions and hydraulic forcing of the Yangtze River estuary, we evaluate three methodologies to schematize a river discharge hydrograph in a 1-D morphodynamic model. These are a representative constant discharge, a non-compressed hydrograph and a compressed hydrograph. To shorten computational time, the latter methodology decreases the timescale of seasonal river flow variations compared to the tidal timescale. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the yearly averaged sediment transport controls long-term morphodynamic development. Morphodynamic equilibrium is reached after millennia when deposition during a high river flow period is balanced by erosion during a low river flow period. An important finding is that a yearly hydrograph can be squeezed in time up to a factor of 20, without leading to unrealistic river-tide interactions. Applying a constant river discharge may not produce equilibrium bed profiles that are similar to that under hydrograph forcing due to the non-linearity in sediment transport. The long characteristic timescales in defining morphodynamic equilibrium indicate that a long-term view is needed to interpret large scale estuarine morphodynamics. Though simple and highly schematized, the modeling experiments in this study provide conceptual understanding of morphodynamics in river-influenced estuaries.

The interplay between hydrodynamics, sediment transports and geometrical constraints govern the evolution of large scale estuarine and coastal morphological features. On a long time scale (> decades) sea level rise, and changing regimes in river discharge and sediment supply may influence morphological evolution as well. Spatial gradients in tide residual sediment transport cause the morphodynamic development. Relevant mechanisms are the Stokes' drift, tidal asymmetry, wave skewness, settling and scour lag, estuarine gravitational circulation, and residual transport driven by river discharge or wind. Morphodynamic models consider these physical processes and include a feedback between hydrodynamics and morphological development. Process-based morphodynamic models may deploy process and input reduction techniques to accelerate developments focusing on major processes. An example is the morphological acceleration factor to account for the different time scales of morphodynamic evolution and hydrodynamic processes. Process-based numerical models are able to reproduce realistic morphology, such as channel-shoal patterns and delta distributary channel formation. These models are also able to hindcast historical estuarine and coastal morphodynamic evolutions and to predict morphological response to sea level rise in future. So far, limited attention has been paid to muddy systems and river flow impact thus requiring further research effort.