Rates of relative sea-level rise during the final stage of the last deglaciation, the early Holocene, are key to understanding future ice melt and sea-level change under a warming climate¹. Data about these rates are scarce², and this limits insight into the relative contributions of the North American and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea-level rise during the early Holocene. Here we present an early Holocene sea-level curve based on 88 sea-level data points (13.7–6.2 thousand years ago (ka)) from the North Sea (Doggerland^3,4). After removing the pattern of regional glacial isostatic adjustment caused by the melting of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, the residual sea-level signal highlights two phases of accelerated sea-level rise. Meltwater sourced from the North American and Antarctic ice sheets drove these two phases, peaking around 10.3 ka and 8.3 ka with rates between 8 mm yr⁻¹ and 9 mm yr⁻¹. Our results also show that global mean sea-level rise between 11 ka and 3 ka amounted to 37.7 m (2σ range, 29.3–42.2 m), reconciling the mismatch that existed between estimates of global mean sea-level rise based on ice-sheet reconstructions and previously limited early Holocene sea-level data. With its broad spatiotemporal coverage, the North Sea dataset provides critical constraints on the patterns and rates of the late-stage deglaciation of the North American and Antarctic ice sheets, improving our understanding of the Earth-system response to climate change.

Understanding of complex sedimentary records formed by transgressive systems is critical for hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, and carbon capture and storage. This paper discusses the facies proportions and preservation of the Last Interglacial and Holocene transgressive systems tracts in the Netherlands and their applicability as a North Sea Basin analogue for the Early Jurassic Åre Formation in the Norwegian offshore. New and existing data from both (sub-)modern transgressive Rhine records were thoroughly reviewed from a sequence stratigraphic perspective, before volumetrics were calculated and longitudinal trends quantified at reservoir scale. Large differences between the Last Interglacial and Holocene transgressive systems were found: the volume of fluvial deposits is almost six times larger and the volume of organics nearly twenty times larger in the Holocene record than in the Last Interglacial record. In contrast, the volume of estuarine deposits in the Holocene record is only half of that of the Last Interglacial record. Remarkably, both records show similar averaged sediment-trapping rates of 8–9 km³/ka. Initial valley configuration and relative sea-level rise-rates during both transgressions were key controls on the volume and spatial arrangement of the transgressive deposits. Relative sea-level fall and river avulsion determined what amount of sediment was left preserved after completion of one interglacial-glacial cycle. Comparison of the Late Quaternary Rhine records with the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic Åre Formation in the Heidrun Field off mid-Norway, showed the potential of the (sub-)modern Rhine records as analogues for ancient stratigraphic records. Especially the transgressive Rhine sequence from the Last Interglacial provided remarkable similarities in facies proportions, preservability, autogenic processes and controlling forcings, ranging from metre-scale vertical-successions to kilometre-scale field-wide events for parts of the Åre Formation. The side-by-side availability of the truncated Last Interglacial and (still) fully preserved Holocene transgressive system proved to be an excellent natural laboratory to study the stratigraphic architecture and assess depositional trends and preservability over longer time scales (>100 ka). It nevertheless demonstrates that no ‘one-size-fits-all’ analogue exists, but that various other analogues are needed to solve the complex puzzle which the Åre Formation resembles.

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma^-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma^-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma^-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma^-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.