To quantify the turbulent transport at gray zone length scales between 1 and 10 km, the Lagrangian evolution of the CONSTRAIN cold air outbreak case was simulated with seven large eddy models. The case is characterized by rather large latent and sensible heat fluxes and a rapid deepening rate of the boundary layer. In some models the entrainment velocity exceeds 4 cm/s. A significant fraction of this growth is attributed to a strong longwave radiative cooling of the inversion layer. The evolution and the timing of the breakup of the stratocumulus cloud deck differ significantly among the models. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that a decrease in the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration and the inclusion of ice microphysics both act to speed up the thinning of the stratocumulus by enhancing the production of precipitation. In all models the formation of mesoscale fluctuations is clearly evident in the cloud fields and also in the horizontal wind velocity. Resolved vertical fluxes remain important for scales up to 10 km. The simulation results show that the resolved vertical velocity variance gradually diminishes with a coarsening of the horizontal mesh, but the total vertical fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum are only weakly affected. This is a promising result as it demonstrates the potential use of a mesh size-dependent turbulent length scale for convective boundary layers at gray zone model resolutions.

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma^-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma^-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma^-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma^-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal at present day is constrained via the joint inversion of geodetic observations and GIA models for a region encompassing northern Europe, the British Isles, and the Barents Sea. The constraining data are Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical crustal velocities and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity data. When the data are inverted with a set of GIA models, the best-fit model for the vertical motion signal has a χ 2 value of approximately 1 and a maximum a posteriori uncertainty of 0.3-0.4mm yr-1. An elastic correction is applied to the vertical land motion rates that accounts for present-day changes to terrestrial hydrology as well as recent mass changes of ice sheets and glaciered regions. Throughout the study area, mass losses from Greenland dominate the elastic vertical signal and combine to give an elastic correction of up to +0.5mm yr-1 in central Scandinavia. Neglecting to use an elastic correction may thus introduce a small but persistent bias in model predictions of GIA vertical motion even in central Scandinavia where vertical motion is dominated by GIA due to past glaciations. The predicted gravity signal is generally less well-constrained than the vertical signal, in part due to uncertainties associated with the correction for contemporary ice mass loss in Svalbard and the Russian Arctic. The GRACE-derived gravity trend is corrected for present-day ice mass loss using estimates derived from the ICESat and CryoSat missions, although a difference in magnitude between GRACE-inferred and altimetry-inferred regional mass loss rates suggests the possibility of a non-negligible GIA response here either from millennial-scale or Little Ice Age GIA.

Tide gauge (TG) records are affected by vertical land motion (VLM), causing them to observe relative instead of geocentric sea level. VLM can be estimated from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series, but only a few TGs are equipped with a GNSS receiver. Hence, (multiple) neighboring GNSS stations can be used to estimate VLM at the TG. This study compares eight approaches to estimate VLM trends at 570 TG stations using GNSS by taking into account all GNSS trends with an uncertainty smaller than 1mm yr^-1 within 50km. The range between the methods is comparable with the formal uncertainties of the GNSS trends. Taking the median of the surrounding GNSS trends shows the best agreement with differenced altimetry-tide gauge (ALT-TG) trends. An attempt is also made to improve VLM trends from ALT-TG time series. Only using highly correlated along-track altimetry and TG time series reduces the SD of ALT-TG time series by up to 10%. As a result, there are spatially coherent changes in the trends, but the reduction in the root mean square (RMS) of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends is insignificant. However, setting correlation thresholds also acts like a filter to remove problematic TG time series. This results in sets of ALT-TG VLM trends at 344-663 TG locations, depending on the correlation threshold. Compared to other studies, we decrease the RMS of differences between GNSS and ALT-TG trends (from 1.47 to 1.22mm yr^-1), while we increase the number of locations (from 109 to 155), Depending on the methods the mean of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends vary between 0.1 and 0.2mm yr^-1. We reduce the mean of the differences by taking into account the effect of elastic deformation due to present-day mass redistribution. At varying ALT-TG correlation thresholds, we provide new sets of trends for 759 to 939 different TG stations. If both GNSS and ALT-TG trend estimates are available, we recommend using the GNSS trend estimates because residual ocean signals might correlate over long distances. However, if large discrepancies ( > 3mm yr^-1) between the two methods are present, local VLM differences between the TG and the GNSS station are likely the culprit and therefore it is better to take the ALT-TG trend estimate. GNSS estimates for which only a single GNSS station and no ALT-TG estimate are available might still require some inspection before they are used in sea level studies.

Different sea level reconstructions show a spread in sea level rise over the last six decades and it is not yet certain whether the sum of contributors explains the reconstructed rise. Possible causes for this spread are, among others, vertical land motion at tide-gauge locations and the sparse sampling of the spatially variable ocean. To assess these open questions, reconstructed sea level and the role of the contributors are investigated on a local, basin, and global scale. High-latitude seas are excluded. Tide-gauge records are combined with observations of vertical land motion, independent estimates of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage, and barotropic atmospheric forcing in a self-consistent framework to reconstruct sea level changes on basin and global scales, which are compared to the estimated sum of contributing processes. For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of contributors, as well as a large part of the decadal variability. The sparsely sampled South Atlantic Ocean forms an exception. The global-mean sea level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr^-1 over 1958-2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr^-1 for the sum of contributors. Over the same period, the reconstruction shows a positive acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.02 mm yr^-2, which is also in agreement with the sum of contributors, which shows an acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.01 mm yr^-2. Since 1993, both reconstructed sea level and the sum of contributors show good agreement with altimetry estimates.

The mass and steric components of sea level changes have been separated in the Tropical Asian Seas (TAS) using a statistically optimal combination of Jason satellite altimetry, GRACE satellite gravimetry, and ocean reanalyses. Using observational uncertainties, statistically optimally weighted time series for both components have been obtained in four regions within the TAS over the period January 2005 to December 2012. The mass and steric sea level variability is regressed with the first two principal components (PC1&2) of Pacific equatorial wind stress and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Sea level in the South China Sea is not affected by any of the indices. Steric variability in the TAS is largest in the deep Banda and Celebes seas and is affected by both PCs and the DMI. Mass variability is largest on the continental shelves, which is primarily controlled by PC1. We argue that a water flux from the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean is the cause for mass variability in the TAS. The steric trends are about 2 mm yr⁻¹ larger than the mass trends in the TAS. A significant part of the mass trend can be explained by the aforementioned indices and the nodal cycle. Trends obtained from fingerprints of mass redistribution are statistically equal to mass trends after subtracting the nodal cycle and the indices. Ultimately, the effect of omitting the TAS in global sea level budgets is estimated to be 0.3 mm yr⁻¹.

Sea-level rise and decadal variability along the northwestern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean are studied in a self-consistent framework that takes into account the effects of solid-earth deformation and geoid changes due to large-scale mass redistribution processes. Observations of sea and land level changes from tide gauges and GPS are compared to the cumulative effect of GIA, present-day mass redistribution, and ocean dynamics over a 50 year period (1965–2014). GIA explains the majority of the observed sea-level and land motion trends, as well as almost all interstation variability. Present-day mass redistribution resulting from ice melt and land hydrology causes both land uplift and sea-level rise in the region. We find a strong correlation between decadal steric variability in the Subpolar Gyre and coastal sea level, which is likely caused by variability in the Labrador Sea that is propagated southward. The steric signal explains the majority of the observed decadal sea-level variability and shows an upward trend and a significant acceleration, which are also found along the coast. The sum of all contributors explains the observed trends in both sea-level rise and vertical land motion in the region, as well as the decadal variability. The sum of contributors also explains the observed acceleration within confidence intervals. The sea-level acceleration coincides with an accelerating density decrease at high latitudes.

The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm•y^-1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm•y^-1 (1s) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm•y^-1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets have made an important contribution to sea-level rise through the last century. Self-attraction and loading effects driven by shrinking ice masses cause a spatially varying redistribution of ocean waters that affects reconstructions of past sea level from sparse observations. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies that they should be properly modelled before interpreting and extrapolating recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.

Present-day mass redistribution increases the total ocean mass and, on average, causes the ocean bottom to subside elastically. Therefore, barystatic sea level rise is larger than the resulting global mean geocentric sea level rise, observed by satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauges. We use realistic estimates of mass redistribution from ice mass loss and land water storage to quantify the resulting ocean bottom deformation and its effect on global and regional ocean volume change estimates. Over 1993-2014, the resulting globally averaged geocentric sea level change is 8% smaller than the barystatic contribution. Over the altimetry domain, the difference is about 5%, and due to this effect, barystatic sea level rise will be underestimated by more than 0.1 mm/yr over 1993-2014. Regional differences are often larger: up to 1 mm/yr over the Arctic Ocean and 0.4 mm/yr in the South Pacific. Ocean bottom deformation should be considered when regional sea level changes are observed in a geocentric reference frame.

One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model by using a Kalman filter. The model consists of a time-varying trend and seasonal cycle, and variability induced by several physical processes, such as wind, atmospheric pressure changes and teleconnection patterns. This model has two advantages over the classical least-squares method that uses regression to explain variations due to known processes: a seasonal cycle with time-varying phase and amplitude can be estimated, and the trend is allowed to vary over time. This time-varying trend consists of a secular trend and low-frequency variability that is not explained by any other term in the model. As a test case, we have used tide gauge data from stations around the North Sea over the period 1980-2013. We compare a model that only estimates a trend with two models that also remove intra-annual variability: one by means of time series of wind stress and sea level pressure, and one by using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The last two models explain a large part of the variability, which significantly improves the accuracy of the estimated time-varying trend. The best results are obtained with the hydrodynamic model. We find a consistent low-frequency sea level signal in the North Sea, which can be linked to a steric signal over the northeastern part of the Atlantic.