Robust predictions of shoreline change are critical for sustainable coastal management. Despite advancements in shoreline models, objective benchmarking remains limited. Here we present results from ShoreShop2.0, an international collaborative benchmarking workshop, where 34 groups submitted shoreline change predictions in a blind competition. Subsets of shoreline observations at an undisclosed site (BeachX) over short (5-year) and medium (50-year) periods were withheld from modelers and used for model benchmarking. Using satellite-derived shoreline datasets for calibration and evaluation, the best performing models achieved prediction accuracies on the order of 10 m, comparable to the accuracy of the satellite shoreline data, indicating that certain beaches can be modelled nearly as well as they can be remotely observed. The outcomes from this collaborative benchmarking competition critically review the present state-of-the-art in shoreline change prediction as well as reveal model limitations, facilitate improvements, and offer insights for advancing shoreline-prediction capabilities.

With large-scale human interventions and climate change unfolding as they are now, coastal changes at decadal timescales are not limited to incremental modifications of systems that are fixed in their general geometry, but often show significant changes in layout that may be catastrophic for populations living in previously safe areas. This poses severe challenges that are difficult to meet for existing models. A new free-form coastline model, ShorelineS, is presented that is able to describe large coastal transformations based on relatively simple principles of alongshore transport gradient driven changes as a result of coastline curvature, including under highly obliquely incident waves, and consideration of splitting and merging of coastlines, and longshore transport disturbance by hard structures. An arbitrary number of coast sections is supported, which can be open or closed and can interact with each other through relatively straightforward merging and splitting mechanisms. Rocky parts or structures may block wave energy and/or longshore sediment transport. These features allow for a rich behavior including shoreline undulations and formation of spits, migrating islands, merging of coastal shapes, salients and tombolos. The main formulations of the (open-source) model, which is freely available at www.shorelines.nl, are presented. Test cases show the capabilities of the flexible, vector-based model approach, while field validation cases for a large-scale sand nourishment (the Sand Engine; 21 million m3) and an accreting groin scheme at Al-Gamil (Egypt) show the model’s capability of computing realistic rates of coastline change as well as a good representation of the shoreline shape for real situations.

Prediction of the shoreline response behind offshore breakwaters is essential for coastal protection projects. Due to the complexity of the processes behind the breakwaters (e.g., wave diffraction, currents, longshore transport), detailed modelling needs high computational efforts. Therefore, simplifying the process effect in a simpler coastline model could be efficient. In this study, the coastline evolution model ShorelineS is used. A new routine was implemented in the model to adjust the wave heights and angles behind the offshore breakwaters. Two approaches from the literature and a newly introduced one were tested in this study. The model free grid system was used to simply track the breaker line; such an advantage also helped to form tombolo, which is not common for these types of models. The tests showed promising results for single and multi breakwaters systems; however, the newly introduced approach still needs further testing and refinement for better performance and less computational cost.