A comprehensive review and evaluation framework for data-driven prognostics

Abstract

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is critical for predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of systems, a key enabler of Predictive Maintenance (PdM). This paper reviews state-of-the-art data-driven prognostic models, emphasizing four essential characteristics: uncertainty, robustness, interpretability, and feasibility. While traditional research has focused on enhancing RUL prediction accuracy, this review argues that these additional characteristics are equally vital for addressing the demands of PHM applications. The review examines Machine Learning (ML) techniques, stochastic models, and Bayesian filters (BFs), analyzing their strengths, limitations, and trade-offs. ML models excel in accuracy but often lack robust uncertainty quantification and adaptability across varying operational conditions. Stochastic models demonstrate greater robustness and feasibility, performing reliably with limited or variable data. Bayesian filters provide high interpretability and do not require run-to-failure data but face challenges in adapting to diverse environments. To bridge these gaps, this paper proposes a structured Model Evaluation Framework that integrates users’ specific needs with key model characteristics identified in the review. By quantifying the importance of the four characteristics, the framework enables systematic evaluation and selection of prognostic models. The findings underscore the need for advancements in uncertainty quantification, adaptive methods to improve robustness, and enhanced interpretability to meet practical and regulatory requirements. While current models offer valuable insights, further improvements are necessary to unlock their full potential for PHM and PdM applications, ensuring more reliable and actionable predictions.