Orbit Uncertainty Propagation in Space Situtational Awareness applied to Conjunction Assessment
J.J.P. Bos (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
S. Gehly – Mentor (TU Delft - Astrodynamics & Space Missions)
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Abstract
Space debris is an ever-growing problem, posing increasing risks of collisions between space objects. To accurately predict a collision, the uncertainty of both objects must be propagated to the time of closest approach. This study compares 8 different uncertainty propagation methods for various challenging test cases, to determine the computational efficiency and accuracy of the uncertainty propagations. It is found that the Multi-Fidelity method (MF) is a promising method that scores high on both metrics. MF is then used to propagate the uncertainty of two space objects to the time of closest approach for realistic conjunction scenarios, and compared to a baseline using Monte Carlo samples. It is found that using MF with specific settings, the resulting collision probability remains within a 95% confidence interval, while the computation times are reduced by a factor of up to 10.000.