Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Katja Frieler (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Stefan Lange (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Franziska Piontek (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Christopher P.O. Reyer (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Jacob Schewe (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Lila Warszawski (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Fang Zhao (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Louise Chini (University of Maryland)
Sebastien Denvil (LOCEAN)
Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Tobias Geiger (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Kate Halladay (Met Office)
George Hurtt (University of Maryland)
Matthias Mengel (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Daisgbre Murakami (Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
Sebastian Ostberg (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Alexander Popp (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Riccardo Riva (TU Delft - Physical and Space Geodesy)
Miodrag Stevanovic (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Tatsuo SuzGBRi (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
Jan Volkholz (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Eleanor Burke (Met Office)
Philippe Ciais (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Kristie Ebi (University of Washington)
Tyler D. Eddy (University of British Columbia, Dalhousie University)
Joshua Elliott (University of Chicago, Columbia University)
Eric Galbraith (Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Simon N. Gosling (University of Nottingham)
Fred Hattermann (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Thomas Hickler (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Jochen Hinkel (Global Climate Forum, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Christian Hof (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Veronika Huber (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Jonas Jägermeyr (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Valentina Krysanova (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Rafael Marcé (Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA))
Hannes Müller Schmied (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Goethe University)
Ioanna Mouratiadou (Universiteit Utrecht, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Don Pierson (Uppsala University)
Derek P. Tittensor (United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Dalhousie University)
Robert Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Michelle Van Vliet (Wageningen University & Research)
Matthias F. Biber (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Richard A. Betts (Hatherly Laboratories, Met Office)
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Delphine Deryng (Climate Analytics, Columbia University)
Steve Frolking (University of New Hampshire Durham)
Chris D. Jones (Met Office)
Heike K. Lotze (Dalhousie University)
Hermann Lotze-Campen (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Ritvik Sahajpal (University of Maryland)
Kirsten Thonicke (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Hanqin Tian (Auburn University, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Yoshiki Yamagata (National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan)
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Abstract
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a <q>special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways</q>. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C , including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
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