Multi-modelling for the energy transition

Abstract

The Dutch government described its vision to achieve significant reductions in greenhouse emissions in the climate goals of 2030 and 2050. The energy infrastructure in the Netherlands will be a critical factor in achieving these goals. As an extension to the stated importance, understanding the current energy infrastructure is equally significant. Models often form the base of understanding such complex systems. Unfortunately, the modelling environment of the Dutch energy infrastructure is fragmented. There exists no one model that is able to give comprehensive oversight in order to provide policy makers with the information needed to facilitate key energy policy decisions. However, there is a variety of models present that each clarify their own piece of the puzzle. Therefore it is the ambition of the TU Delft and partners to create a multi-model infrastructure that is able to couple existing energy models in order to facilitate comprehensive energy policy creation. This thesis is part of the research needed in order to achieve this higher goal.

The main conclusion of the conducted research is that the problem described in the main research question can be answered by using a coupling process based on audits, comprised of questions aimed at detecting issues and checking the effectivity of the means to solve the issues. These audits have proven successful in completing two different multi-resolution multi-modelling coupling case studies. The process entails (for a two-model coupling) a separate model audit for each model, leading to a coupling audit using both models and finally to the realisation of the coupling itself. Adherance to the process standardises the way couplings are created to a degree. Because of this, model audits done for one coupling could for example be re-used at a later date for another one. This provides value over old coupling methods, which were often done individually in an ad-hoc manner.