Probabilistic assessment of inner slope stability in dikes

Gaining insight in the difference between the semi-probabilistic and probabilistic estimates of the reliability index for inner slope stability with overtopping

Master thesis (2023)

Authors

C. Broman Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Contributors

M. Kok Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG (mentor)
C. Mai Van Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG (graduation committee member)
M. Korff (graduation committee member)
A. Broere WSP (graduation committee member)
Mark van der Krogt Deltares (graduation committee member)
Faculty
Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Civil Engineering & Geosciences
Copyright: © 2023 Casper Broman
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Published Date

27-10-2023

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Abstract

After overtopping, the most common failure mechanism in the world that leads to a dike breach is the instability of the inner slope. Two stability calculations are required for the semi-probabilistic assessment of inner slope stability. One calculation is without significant overtopping and the other calculation is with significant overtopping whereby the dike is saturated. The semi-probabilistic assessment method with overtopping is prescribed in a KPR factsheet, but is not verified by calibration calculations or probabilistic calculations. After performing semi-probabilistic and probabilistic calculations at Jaarsveld-Vreeswijk (JAV) in the Netherlands, there is an inconsistency between the semi-probabilistic and probabilistic estimates of the reliability index for inner slope stability with overtopping. Semi-probabilistic and probabilistic calculations have been performed to gain more insight in the inconsistency between the semi-probabilistic and probabilistic estimates of the reliability index for inner slope stability with overtopping. Based on the results, it is recommended to perform a calibration study for inner slope stability with overtopping to obtain a better estimate of the failure probability based on semi-probabilistic calculations.