Estimating European Transport Investment Needs for completing 2030 Climate Targets

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The European Union aims to reduce its emissions by 55% in 2030
compared to 1990 levels, requiring massive investment in the economy
and society. Knowing the level of investment to be made is key to
understanding the macroeconomic impact of the transition, creating
investment policies and prioritizing sectors.  However, in the
transport sector, accounting for around 30% of the total EU CO2
emissions, no independent assessment of the investment needs has been
found. In this master thesis, the level of gross investments required
for meeting 2030 transport policies at the European scale is
estimated and compared to the historical level. The results show that
between 2024 and 2030, making EU targets in the transport sector
requires 253 billion euros of investments per year, or 1.6% of the EU
GDP. When compared to the current level, 42% of the yearly investment
needs are already met. It leaves an investment gap—defined as the
extra investment necessary compared to the current level - of 147
billion euros, or 0.9% of the EU GDP. The results show that
European policies for generalizing electric vehicles in 2030 were
missing ambition compared to climate target. This thesis is also
a use case for using the investment gap as an indicator for
monitoring policies. Through the proxy of investment, the
implementation of the European transport policy can be tracked.

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