Lifting of travel restrictions brings additional noise in COVID-19 surveillance through wastewater-based epidemiology in post-pandemic period
Xuan Li (University of Technology Sydney)
Jibin Li (University of Technology Sydney)
Huan Liu (University of Technology Sydney)
Lidia Mínguez-Alarcón (Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)
Mark M.C. van Loosdrecht (TU Delft - BT/Environmental Biotechnology)
Qilin Wang (University of Technology Sydney)
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Abstract
The post-pandemic world still faces ongoing COVID-19 infections, although international travel has returned to pre-pandemic conditions. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is considered an efficient tool for the population-wide surveillance of COVID-19 infections during the pandemic. However, the performance of WBE in post-pandemic era with travel restrictions lifted remains unknown. Utilizing weekly county-level wastewater surveillance data from June 2021-November 2022 for 222 counties in 49 states (covering 104 million people) in the United States of America, we retrospectively evaluated the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA (CRNA) and reported cases, as well as the impacts of international air travel, demographics, socioeconomic aspects, test accessibility, epidemiological, and environmental factors on reported cases under the corresponding CRNA. The lifting of travel restrictions in June 2022, shifted the correlation between CRNA and COVID-19 incidence in the following 7-day and 14-day from 0.70 (IQR: 0.30–0.88) in June 2021-May 2022 (pandemic) to 0.01 (IQR: -0.31–0.36) in June-November 2022 (post-pandemic), and from 0.74 (IQR: 0.31–0.90) to -0.01 (IQR: -0.38–0.45), respectively. Besides, after lifting the travel restrictions, under the same CRNA, the reported case numbers were impacted by many factors, including the variations of international passengers, test accessibility, Omicron prevalence, ratio of population aged between 18 and 65, minority vulnerability, and healthcare system. This highlights the importance of demographics, infection testing, variants and socioeconomic status on the accuracy and implication of WBE to monitor COVID-19 infection status in post-pandemic era. Our findings facilitate the public health authorities to dynamically adjust their WBE-based tools/strategies to the local contexts to achieve optimal community surveillance.
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