Social Processes

Abstract

Free-standing social conversations constitute a yet underexplored setting for human behavior forecasting. While the task of predicting pedestrian trajectories has received much recent attention, an intrinsic difference between these settings is how groups form and disband. Evidence from social psychology suggests that group members in a conversation explicitly self-organize to sustain the interaction by adapting to one another’s behaviors. Crucially, the same individual is unlikely to adapt similarly across different groups; contextual factors such as perceived relationships, attraction, rapport, etc., influence the entire spectrum of participants’ behaviors. A question arises: how can we jointly forecast the mutually dependent futures of conversation partners by modeling the dynamics unique to every group? In this paper, we propose the Social Process (SP) models, taking a novel meta-learning and stochastic perspective of group dynamics. Training group-specific forecasting models hinders generalization to unseen groups and is challenging given limited conversation data. In contrast, our SP models treat interaction sequences from a single group as a meta-dataset: we condition forecasts for a sequence from a given group on other observed-future sequence pairs from the same group. In this way, an SP model learns to adapt its forecasts to the unique dynamics of the interacting partners, generalizing to unseen groups in a data-efficient manner. Additionally, we first rethink the task formulation itself, motivating task requirements from social science literature that prior formulations have overlooked. For our formulation of Social Cue Forecasting, we evaluate the empirical performance of our SP models against both non-meta-learning and meta-learning approaches with similar assumptions. The SP models yield improved performance on synthetic and real-world behavior datasets.