Understanding the adoption of nitrogenpurification technologies in Dutch dairyfarming: a literature and field-based analysis

Abstract

The Dutch dairy farming sector is facing an acute nitrogen crisis, characterized by severe ecological degradation and a political impasse since the 2019 PAS ruling. The PAS rule was found illegal because it relied on uncertain future measures and with that outcome it halted thousands of nitrogen permits for built projects. While barn-based nitrogen cleaning technologies are available in the market, their large-scale adoption has not taken place due to institutional uncertainty and an unclear investment framework. This research addresses the lack of the adoption of the technological innovations.The existing literature on agricultural innovation lacks an integrated, empirical model that includes all relevant adoption factors. Moreover, there is a lack of quantification of the importance of these factors in the Dutch nitrogen context. The research is specifically designed to establish the hierarchy of the factors and to highlight the role of the different stakeholders. A literature analysis with the PRISMA method resulted in a framework of fourteen adoption factors, categorized into four domains: innovation characteristics, farm characteristics, farmer and external influences. The Best Worst Method was then applied to quantify the weights of these factors among different groups of stakeholders: general experts, financial specialists and dairy farmers. Qualitative interviews were used to contextualize the BWM results and explain structural differences in decision-making. Adoption is primarily determined by institutional and financial factors. The most decisive determinants are Government Incentives (0.18), Expected Profitability (0.15), Coercive Pressure (0.14) and Trust (0.12). Initial Costs (0.06) are ranked relatively low which could be explained because of net value investment decisions that are made. The analysis also shows structural differences as experts focus on bankability and system security. Meanwhile farmers prioritize operational feasibility and compatibility with existing routines and liquidity needs. Adoption requires connecting the operational and financial thresholds of the stakeholders. The industry has not yet adopted a dominant technological design, which shows that regulatory and the reliability of verification standards are decisive for technological diffusion. This is more important than the technical superiority or the initial cost of the innovation. This research contributes to the management of technology literature by identifying the factors for technology adoption for agricultural innovation for the Dutch nitrogen context.