From potential to reality: Advocating for an evidence-based circularity assessment framework

Abstract

Circularity is often treated as a design principle or strategic ambition to improve resource efficiency, but in practice, many of its claims remain unverified and untraceable. Existing assessment methods typically focus on intended design strategies or modelled impacts, rather than demonstrating real-world outcomes. This paper introduces the concept of evidence-based circularity assessment as an alternative approach for shifting from intention to actionable outcome. Drawing on an analogy of two contrasting ‘circular’ coffee pod systems, it illustrates how the credibility of circularity claims depends on the presence of verifiable evidence, coordinated infrastructure, and traceable processes. Building on these insights, the paper proposes a conceptual framework for assessing circularity, structured around three interdependent elements: proof, process, and persuasion. Finally, the paper explores how these principles can be applied in the built environment, where supporting systems are needed to track, evaluate, and realize circular material flows. The approach aspires to support more transparent, accountable, and adaptive forms of circularity assessment in complex real-world settings.