What are the merits of endogenising land-use change dynamics into model-based climate adaptation planning?

Abstract

Integrated assessment models often treat land-use change as an external driving force. In reality, land-use is influenced by environmental conditions. This paper explores the merits of endogenising land-use change, i.e. making land-use change an internal dynamic process in models used for supporting climate adaptation planning. For this purpose, we extend the Waas environmental impact assessment model, a hypothetical case study previously used for exploring new model-based climate adaptation approaches. We use a utility-based land-use change model for endogenising the land-use dynamics, evaluate its implications, and identify the conditions under which endogenising land-use change becomes important. We find that endogenising land-use dynamics changes the performance of the policies, allows for assessing policies that target land-use, and widens the outcomes of interest that can be considered. The relevance of endogenising land-use dynamics depends on (i) the expected degree of future climate change, (ii) the society’s sensitivity to climate events, and (iii) the types of policies that decision makers want to evaluate. Ignoring the interaction between the environment and the society (in this case the land-use) can result in both under- and overestimation of the impacts of adaptation and might limit the adaptation options that are considered.