Planning under Uncertainty with Weighted State Scenarios

Abstract

External factors are hard to model using a Markovian state in several real-world planning domains. Although planning can be difficult in such domains, it may be possible to exploit long-term dependencies between states of the environment during planning. We introduce weighted state scenarios to model long-term sequences of states, and we use a model based on a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process to reason about scenarios during planning. Experiments show that our model outperforms other methods for decision making in two real-world domains.