Estimating the effects of technological progress

A data-analytic and agent-based approach

Master thesis (2019)

Authors

M.P. Ingwersen Technology, Policy and Management

Contributors

S.T.H. Storm Economics of Technology and Innovation - TPM (mentor)
I. Nikolic System Engineering - TPM (graduation committee member)
Cees van Beers Economics of Technology and Innovation - TPM (mentor)
Faculty
Technology, Policy and Management, Technology, Policy and Management
Copyright: © 2019 Mylène Ingwersen
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Published Date

30-08-2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Abstract

This thesis investigates the effect of technological progress on the Dutch labour market. For this, a replication of the Frey and Osborne (2013) study on Dutch data is conducted. The application of the FO model has shown that approximately 12\% of the Dutch workers are at high risk of being replaced due to technological developments. Moreover, when simulating this risk, this study found that on average, 36\% of the Dutch workers can lose their jobs within 20 years due to technological progress.
However, this analysis did not account for the possibility of retraining of workers and the strategic behaviour of workers and firms stemming from their uncertainty due to technological progress. To take these factors into account, an agent-based model was developed. By experimenting with this model, the average unemployment rate after 21 years dropped to 3\%. However, due to policy and scenario testing, the underlying unemployment rates of this average unemployment rate of 3\% varies greatly.