Shift Happens!
A Stated Choice Experiment to measure the influence of private Automated Cars on train usage
L.L.G. van Zeijl (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Jan Anne Annema – Mentor (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
GP van Wee – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
Mark de Bruijne – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Organisation & Governance)
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Abstract
The development of automated cars has introduced the potential to reduce global CO2 emissions by enhancing driving efficiency. However, counter-research suggests that this may lead to increased CO2 emissions due to higher speeds and highway congestion. This research examines the impact of automated cars on train travel, focusing on their unique attributes: safety, motion sickness, and comfort.
In the densely populated Netherlands, where congestion is a significant issue, train passengers may shift to automated cars, which would result in an increased road congestion. Safety concerns in automated cars impact the decision for a transportation mode, and individuals are more likely to experience motion sickness while riding in them. Automated cars offer comfort features that are not available in regular cars, allowing occupants to engage in other activities.
This study investigates the extent to which safety, motion sickness, and comfort influence train passengers' decisions to choose automated cars over trains. A Stated Choice Experiment methodology was employed to assess these factors on the Rotterdam-Amsterdam corridor, one of the most congested routes in the country. The findings indicate that comfort is the most influential factor in the modal choice, followed by safety and motion sickness.
However, the study emphasizes the need for a cautious interpretation of these results since the impact does not directly correlate with the actual probability of a modal shift. While comfort emerges as the most influential factor, it carries potential negative consequences for the public transport sector and road congestion.
This research underscores the significance of assessing the impact of automated cars on train travel, particularly considering their distinguishing factors. Nonetheless, as this study relies on hypothetical scenarios, future research could benefit from real-world experiences with automated cars. Furthermore, extending the investigation to shared or fully automated cars would enhance the generalizability of the findings.