Resilient Cable Rating for Overplanted Wind Farms Tackling Data Imbalance and Aging Risks

Abstract

Increasing wind farm capacity via overplanting enhances energy production but risks accelerating cable aging if transmission capacity is poorly managed. Consequently, resilient Dynamic Cable Rating (DCR) prediction-defined as the ability to maintain stability under data quality degradation and operational shifts-is crucial for reliable operation. However, achieving this is challenged by limited datasets, missing data, and complex spatio-temporal correlations. To address these issues, a resilient DCR prediction and thermal estimation framework is developed. First, a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CGAN) is applied to synthetically augment limited datasets, effectively resolving the load data imbalance. Second, a Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Residual Shrinkage Network (STGARSN) is proposed. This model integrates an extended Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) and a graph attention mechanism to capture complex correlations. Crucially, it incorporates a residual shrinkage module to filter noise and outliers, thereby ensuring model resilience. Finally, to optimize economic performance while minimizing cable aging, a comparative analysis of various overplanting strategies is conducted. Experiments on real cable temperature measurements demonstrate the superior resilience of the proposed model, maintaining high accuracy not only across different forecasting horizons but also under conditions of missing data and sensor noise. The proposed framework accurately predicts DCR and supports long-term offshore wind farm operations through improved economic and technical decision-making.