Estimating Wind and Emission Parameters in an Atmospheric Transport Model

Abstract

The present study proposes a novel data assimilation (DA) approach for estimating emission and wind direction parameters in an advection-diffusion model. This implementation aims to improve the prediction of a chemical transport model over long distances by updating the emission operator in the model using DA techniques. As a first step, we want to test the method in a small-scale scenario. A low-dimensional advection-diffusion model was utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach under various sampling observation numbers. The model’s emission and wind parameters are perturbed as a source of uncertainty. The parameters are sequentially estimated with the adjoint-free Ensemble Kalman filter with an augmented state vector. These sequential DA techniques exploit the ensemble of multiple model realizations to reduce uncertainty in the state and parameter representation. An associated stream function with a divergence-free condition controls the wind fields, and the estimation of this stream function through the assimilation process allows corrections of the wind fields without violating physical laws. The technique’s performance was compared against validation observations such as the Root-Mean Square (RMS), and it was found that the number of assimilated observations had a significant impact on the parameter estimations results. This study demonstrates the potential of the proposed DA approach for improving the prediction of transport in the advection-diffusion model through parameter estimation.