Case Based Reasoning
As a Cost Estimation Method for the Ship Building Industry
S.A.M.T. Visseren (TU Delft - Mechanical Engineering)
R.G. Hekkenberg – Graduation committee member
J.M.G. Coenen – Mentor
G. Alblas – Mentor
Wouter W A van Blokland – Graduation committee member
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Abstract
Accurate cost estimations are important for ship production companies such as Royal IHC. The research discussed is based on a feasibility study for a CBR cost estimation method. The current cost estimation method at IHC is a top-down price-to-win analogy cost estimation. This method uses mainly the weight of the ship as an input variable for the estimation. A problem with using only weight is that the actual work performed on a section is left out of the estimation as well as other cost drivers. Another problem occurring is the current estimation method being divided into three phases, with lacking evaluation, optimization and feedback possible. This research discusses two new cost estimation methods. The statistical method is a parametric cost estimation method, that uses equations with the main cost drivers. The graph database method uses the CBR theory as a basis for cost estimations. Problem solving is done by using a solution from an old ship and reusing this solution for a new ship. The graph database stores detailed information about the work performed on the ship and the main cost drivers. The qualitative and quantitative analyses showed that usingmultiple cost drivers and the work performed on a section creates more accurate cost estimations. With a solution as the graph database method also the possibilities of evaluation and process optimizations are broader.