Paleo data analysis

Abstract

As models are becoming more dominant for the prediction of sea level rise, a review of how this method type is operating is needed. Hence, for this thesis the research objective was to what degree of accurateness is the VM6_C model estimating the relative sea-level during the late Holocene of Sardinia and Crete? To support this question, the following three sub-questions were formulated: 1. What is the influence of components of the simplified sea-level equation in Sardinia and Crete? 2. What are the current tectonic trends for these locations? 3. To what extend can the archaeological sites at these locations be used for validating the model? The analysis for answering these questions, were divided into two case studies with three different acquisition methods: paleo data (1), GPS stations (2) and the VM6_C current rate of change (3). The accurateness was reviewed by comparing the computed trends and relative sea level heights of both these methods and case studies. This resulted in a rate of change of RSL by paleo data by Crete of 0.6173 mm/yr, whilst Sardinia had 1.297 [mm/yr]. In comparison the difference between the paleo and model data was respectively 0.45 [mm/yr] for Crete and for Sardinia is 1.03 [mm/yr]. The tectonic movement of both islands was concluded to be both subsiding at a millimetre magnitude. Therefore, the conclusion was drawn that the sea level was rising relative to the structures, yet the island was subsiding over time. Finally, the accurateness was reviewed by comparing the average difference between the historic sea level of the paleo data and the VM6_C model. Henceforth the variation was respectively -0.4302 [m] for Sardinia and -1.550 [m]. Thus, according to the results, the model has a higher accurateness relative to the paleo data when measuring at tectonic stable locations, however the trend can be better estimated at tectonic active locations. Which can be caused by the temporal resolution of paleo sites.