Risk-Aware Updating of Reliability Standards for Flood Defences
F. den Heijer (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder (TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
M. Kok (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
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Abstract
Objective of this paper is to study how reliability standards, expressed as probabilities of dike segment failure, can be practically updated to improve opportunities for risk-based dike design and planning. The approach to assess the economic optimal flood probability, used by the Dutch Delta Committee (1958, in this paper referred to as Van Dantzig), is adapted to reflect time-dependent effects of a.o. climate change and subsidence. Furthermore, the approach is adapted to reflect overtopping instead of overflow and it is extended to include reinforcements over time. A comparison of the results of the Adapted Van Dantzig approach with the economic optimal probabilities used as input for the recently formalised Dutch standards (2017) is performed for 73 dike segments in the Netherlands, showing good agreement. Following the Adapted Van Dantzig approach, an analytical relation is developed for economic optimal design horizons, dependent on the dike design, and characteristics of load, investment, climate effect, and economic growth. Finally, a dynamic and simple-to-use approach is developed to enable updating of the economic optimal reliability based on a proposed design and investment planning. This can serve to consider whether an existing reliability standard still fits adequately or needs updating.
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