Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in Austria
Roland Kaitna (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
David Prenner (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
Matt Switanek (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz)
Markus Stoffel (Université de Genève)
Douglas Maraun (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz)
Markus Hrachowitz (TU Delft - Water Resources)
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Abstract
Debris-flow activity is expected to change in a future climate. In this study we connect a susceptibility model for debris-flows on a regional scale with climate projections until 2100. We use this to assess changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in six regions in the Austrian Alps. We find limited changes on an annual basis, but distinct changes when separating between hydro-meteorological trigger types and regions. While regions in the east and in the south of Austria may experience less days susceptible to debris flows in summer, there is a general trend of increasing susceptibility earlier in the year for both, rainfall-related and snow-related trigger conditions. The outcomes of this study serve as a basis for the development of adaption strategies for future risk management from this debris-flow hazard.
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