News Contagion, Investors’ Decisions, and ICOs’ Success
Andrea Moro (Lund University)
J. Gartner (TU Delft - Delft Centre for Entrepreneurship)
Yacine Belghitar (Cranfield University)
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Abstract
Our research explores the influence of news and comments, specifically those circulated by reliable sources such as the Financial Times, on the ability of firms undertaking an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) to achieve their target fundraising goal, known as the soft-cap. We employ contagion theory as a framework to investigate whether an increased volume or a more favorable net sentiment of such news and comments enhances the likelihood of token issuers meeting the soft-cap, by steering investor decision-making processes. Our findings indicate a positive, yet non-linear, impact of reliable news sources, which significantly bolsters the odds of reaching soft-cap, from 0.4 to up .9. We propose that reliable news and commentary operate through three primary channels: initially, they serve to raise awareness and legitimize the ICO, while over the long term, they play a more informational role. Our results are robust …