Operational Reliability of Emergency Measures, a Case Study for the BresDefender

Abstract

During extreme high-water events in river systems, the load on a levee section may exceed its resistance, initiating the breaching process which eventually leads to levee failure. The success of an emergency measure to intervene in the initial phases of levee failure is mainly dependent on its timely application. Quick action is required to prepare and deploy an emergency measure before damages to the levee section have become irreparable. In this study, we investigate the key parameters for successful application of an emergency measure, focusing on the BresDefender case study. The BresDefender is a floating pontoon used by the Dutch military, which is intended to avoid or postpone levee failure. A model has been developed taking the operational steps in the implementation of the emergency measure during a high water and the (uncertainty) in the duration of these processes into account. The model is used to quantify the probability of successful operation to prevent levee failure due to overflow or slope instability. The probability of successful application of the BresDefender has been simulated for river flood situations in the Netherlands. For the river Rhine, where the examined cases were prone to slope instabilities, the probability of arriving in time was found to be 70%. But for the Meuse case, where the examined cases were prone to overflow, the probability of arriving in time was found to be only 0%. The critical steps in the process after the occurrence of damage to the levee are damage detection, the decision to repair the damage, the transport of the emergency measure, and the placement of the measure. By incorporating emergency measures in emergency preparedness procedures, the time required for the critical steps will be decreased and the probability of successful application of the emergency measure, i.e., its contribution to flood risk reduction, will be enhanced.