Framework for updating scenarios
A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios
P. van den Berg (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
K Blok – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
D.J. Scholten – Mentor (TU Delft - Economics of Technology and Innovation)
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Abstract
The dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term visions of the future; scenarios. Outdated scenarios will result in future pathways that are no longer achievable and therefore reduces their relevance and usefulness for making decisions. As some uncertainty is resolved over time, while other uncertainties arise, it is important to take these changes into account. Although the need to update scenarios to create meaningful insight for making decisions is clearly recognized, a clear and structured method for executing this process remains unclear. I propose that to configure a solution, two concepts need to be introduced 1) scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) changes considered should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different layers distinguished. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a generic framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date, guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. Within a test case the framework is applied to four scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios.