The built environment needs to become completely sustainable before 2050. Hydrogen is seen as a suitable resource to help in achieving this goal. In a hydrogen system, the predefined high level of reliability, as stands today, affects the affordability of the system. The households are the users and payers of the system. The method used is Discrete Choce Modeling. This research identifies a gap between the Willingness To Pay (WTP) for reliability and the current cost of this level of reliability. Reliability should not be a goal on its own. The maintained level of reliability should be optimized together with the affordability of the system.

In a rapidly expanding offshore wind market, governments are evaluating their role in the support of the export of their domestic companies. This thesis looks at what roles governments utilize in the export domain of offshore wind. Four governmental roles are identified and their prevalence is rated in different stages of a novel representation of the export process. A framework of these roles and export stages is applied to the Dutch, Danish and German offshore wind sector by performing a comparative case study. The case studies are conducted using a combination of desk study and 26 expert interviews. The study finds a range of recommendations for the Dutch government to improve its promotion of exports in the Dutch sector. Additionally, the study finds a range of patterns of prevalences of governmental roles which are discussed. The instruments and roles utilized in the earlier stages of the export process are theorized to be more technology-related, the instruments and roles later in the export process are more generalizable for all export processes.

Most countries have shown their concern towards global warming and made commitments to decrease carbon emissions. Energy usage will have to become more efficient and generated by an increasing amount of sustainable resources. Hard-to-abate industries will require incentives to decarbonize their processes. Research shows that consumer-facing companies (CFCs) are willing to and can incentivize upstream production to decarbonize processes. Literature research concludes that steel, ammonia, methanol and refineries are highly dependent on hydrogen to be decarbonized. Demand sectors of these heavy industries are analyzed to identify potential demand for hydrogen-based products, and whether their value proposition towards consumers increases using hydrogen-based products. Some case studies on CFCs using heavy industry’s products do confirm this. A table with scores per industry is provided to show the relative degree of downstream capability and willingness to decarbonize upstream production. The research shows that the steel sector will be the most applicable industry to be incentivized from a CFC’s perspective, followed by ammonia and to less extent methanol and refineries. CFC initiated decarbonization mechanisms are qualitatively sorted and discussed for applicability on hydrogen-based transition. The mechanisms holding the highest potential to initiate upstream decarbonization are discussed regarding applicability for the steel industry. Business model innovation, industry & sector level collaboration, performance standards and industry & market standards are considered to have the highest potential among CFC mechanisms to reduce risks in transitioning upstream industries.

Abstract The technical and geographical characteristics of fossil fuels have shaped interstate energy relations for decades. The ongoing energy transition leads to an increasing share of renewables in the electricity mix. Since technical and geographical characteristics of renewables differ significantly from those of fossil fuels, it is likely that renewables affect energy relations between countries in a different way. It is yet unknown how these deviating characteristics will exactly influence the international energy relations, and evidence from concrete cases is missing. This study therefore examines the geopolitical implications of wind power in the Danish electricity system. The aim is to assess how interstate energy relations shifted between 1990 and 2018, and whether these shifts can be attributed to the technical and geographical characteristics of wind power. A framework of analysis is constructed to outline the geopolitical implications in 1990 and 2018. Desk research and expert interviews are used to obtain the data. The research concludes that the implications of the transition have been rather positive for Denmark. While sometimes depending on its neighbours for electricity supply, Denmark is still able to safeguard energy security, generate revenues and gain global political influence by sharing knowledge. Further research should outline the implications for other types of renewable energy sources and focus on the geopolitical implications of wind power in other regions.

In a socio –technical system, such as the energy system, a network of actors is responsible for developing, monitoring and managing the technical system bounded by institutions on different levels. The network of actors is the social dimension, where the technical system is the technical dimension of the socio -technical system. The development of the technical dimension can already be assessed through the Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The development of the network of actors, or the social dimension; the dimension that mostly causes problems cannot be assessed at this time. It is, therefore, the aim of this thesis to create a numerical scale that indicates the development of the social dimension of a socio -technical system; the Network Readiness Level (NRL). The scale indicates the development at a low level of analysis; individual projects adding to the bigger socio -technical system. To draft the NRL -scale, the following research question should be answered: ‘What should a numerical indicator to assess the readiness of the social dimension of a socio -technical system look like? To answer the research question, a list of properties, facilitators and barriers of influence on a socio –technical system was drafted, based on literature. The list was validated by experts based on semi –structure interviews and a sorting exercise. The experts were originating from cases on renewable energy development of Tata Steel IJmuiden . A total of three cases on the development of a wind park, developing solar power at TSIJ, and developing a District Heating network were used. All cases were selected based on their socio -technical characteristics. The outcomes of the interviews served as an input for a 4-step result analysis that lead to the final outcome of this thesis: the NRL –indicator. The NRL -indicator is a methodology to assess the readiness of a network of actors based on a numerical scale. It serves to indicate the level of development, and addresses what causes the development to lag behind. The NRL -indicator exists of 16 criteria of a collaboration, and a scale of seven levels (NRL1 -NRL7). The methodology includes three important characteristics of a development: dynamic character, different criteria present at the same time, and the development process of the criteria. By combining these criteria, the NRL -indicator is capable of providing a complete overview of the factors of influence on a socio –technological development. The NRL –indicator presents something, a numerical scale to assess the readiness of the social side, which has never been presented before. This research on the NRL –indicator thus proposes a completely new methodology that could be valuable for managers, policy makers, and other actors in the network of actors of any socio -technical system. Future research is needed to validate the methodology, and prove its applicability. Not only in renewable energy development, but in multiple socio -technical systems, like: construction, pharma, transportation, communication, public -private partnerships, and innovation.

In this thesis the Dutch consumer’ trade-off between hydrogen fuel cell technology and battery electric vehicles has been studied and identified which policy factors are effective to enable a FCEV breakthrough in the Netherlands. The consumer trade-off between different vehicle attributes is estimated by applying a discrete choice experiment and using the choice data to build a discrete choice model. A multinomial logit model was used to estimate the taste coefficients and based on this obtained coefficients the attribute importance is estimated. In order to understand the importance of policy factors we simulated different policy options to assess the impact on the market shares of FCEVs and BEVs. Finally, policy recommendation are made based on the policy effectiveness and its cost-effectiveness and feasibility.

How well spent is public money concerning sustainability goals? How effective and efficient are these policies? Even though it is widely acknowledged that actions against climate change are urgently needed in the near future, policy makers little insight in how potential policies can be designed most effectively. To evaluate the impacts of sustainability policies on industry, such as carbon taxes and hydrogen subsidies, policies should be included within industrial cluster models. This policy modelling approach leads to effective and efficient use of public finance and time. This research foresees in this demand by applying a module thinking strategy. This allows for the creation of plug-and-play policy modules that can be used in future research to determine the most effective or efficient policy to achieve sustainable industrial clusters. To this end, scope variables are identified that provide buttons to design policies. Future research should focus on validating these scope variables to a further extend and potentially enable generalisation of the policy modules. The authors choice to use linear optimization resulted in only being able to evaluate generation based policies (like feed-in tariffs). Designing also investment based policies (like lump-sum subsidies) requires further attention.

Thirteen percent of the world’s population currently does not have access to electricity. This lack of access to electricity limits the overall development. Having access to clean energy can provide education access, productivity and possibilities for economic growth. Frugal innovations are new or improved products, with a lower cost and fewer used resources in their production chain, while maintaining quality, achieving predefined criteria, fulfilling a specific purpose and are user-friendly. Frugal solar-photovoltaic systems, are one of the possible technologies that could be able to contribute to reducing the number of people without access to electricity. Despite the potential of frugal solar-PV systems for reducing energy poverty, market diffusion of these innovations is not a given. Political risks can pose a barrier to the market diffusion of these innovations, due to endangering a stable environment for development and investments. However, the span of this relationship, specifically in the combination with frugal solar-PV systems, is unknown. To analyse this, the following main research question has been posed in this research: ‘To what extent is there a relationship between political risks and the market diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems?’. The answer to this research question has been researched with a mixed-methods research approach. First, a quantitative analysis is performed with a correlation analysis. The second phase includes qualitative research. Based on the results of the quantitative results, the factors which could influence the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems in Uganda and Namibia are analysed with means of case studies and interviews. The correlation analysis showed that there is no relationship between political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems. There are too little significant results to convince that there is a relationship between the political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems worldwide and per continent. Given the fact that this is a research area where little operationalising has been done so far, it is also important to find possible explanations for this result. Based on the case studies and interviews, it can be stated that that there are more factors playing a role in the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems than the included political risks. For example, the need for frugal innovations, (renewable) energy technologies which are already invested in, the varying degree of involvement of foreign investors and non-governmental organisations, the history of relationships with other countries and current trading agreements. To conclude, this research has contributed to the knowledge gaps and scientific debates in the frugal innovation field by looking at the market diffusion of these systems and the possible role political risks can play in this process. Valuable knowledge has been gathered, which has contributed in filling in gaps in academic research: political risks have been operationalised, a contribution has been made in the field of diffusion theories, specifically for frugal innovations, and the scope of the extent of a relationship between political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems has been determined. The results of this research can hopefully on the long term contribute to increasing the percentage of people having access to affordable and renewable generated electricity and reducing the energy poverty worldwide.

This research aims to develop a maintenance strategy for large offshore DOT wind farms to reduce the costs for O&M. The strategy consists of a logistical solution in the form of a stock keeping scenario and a mechanism to exchange parts of the drive train. Requirements for the maintenance strategy is to be innovative, in order to stand out from conventional wind turbines and to reduce downtime to a maximum of 5%, in order to be competitive with conventional wind turbines. The research was performed by simulating five stock keeping scenarios and six mechanisms to exchange the complete drive train, or parts of the drive train. Every combination between stock keeping scenario and exchange mechanism was simulated for a 700 MW DOT wind farm located at the proposed wind farm sites of both “Hollandse Kust: Noord-Holland" and “IJmuiden Ver", for 5.0 MW and 7.0 MW turbine configurations. The simulations were carried out using the O&M Calculator developed by ECN. The results of the simulations show that the conventional approach to maintaining offshore wind turbines is not the best approach. In terms of a logistical solution, making use of a dedicated maintenance island in the sea or a floating workshop in the form of a service operations vessel (SOV) gives a 2 to 3% higher availability compared to how stock keeping is currently performed. Nowadays the exchange of components of the drive train is done by expensive and scarce installation vessels. Even though a large intervention like this is not often needed a decrease in downtime of up to 1% can be achieved if DOT wind farms make use of a better exchange mechanism. Best results are achieved for an integral exchange of the complete drive train, hub and blades, in case of component failure. For a DOT wind farm to reach the industry's goals to reduce downtime to a maximum of 5% the maintenance strategy needs to be changed. The greatest downtime reduction is found in reducing the waiting time for a suitable weather window. Keeping resources closer to the wind farm or improving weather capabilities of your vessel can help in doing so. Conclusively an innovative component exchange, making use of the modular concept of the DOT can ensure a maximum downtime of 5%.

As the energy transition evolves, more fossil-driven base-load generation is being replaced with intermittent renewable energy sources. Peak power plants will continue to play a crucial role in future renewable energy systems to complement renewable energy supply. The focus of this thesis is on alternative fuels that can be utilized in conventional gas turbines. Several alternatives fuels exist, such as hydrogen, methanol and bio-fuels, and each alternative fuel has different technical, economic, social and environmental implications for the energy system and the society as a whole. Decision makers across the energy sector face difficult trade-offs between quantitative and qualitative criteria when selecting and alternative technology to invest in. This paper applies the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to select an alternative fuel for a peak power plant in Rotterdam. The fuels analysed are methanol and hydrogen, and are ranked according to nine sub-criteria. Two contributions are proposed to improve the AHP method. Firstly, incorporating a technology readiness level indicator to quantify the technological maturity. Secondly, multiple perspectives are incorporated from key stakeholders in the criteria weighting. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on the most relevant criteria.

There is a pressing need for sustainable energy solutions in refugee camps. Community solar mini-grids, with their costs, reliability, and ease of installation can meet this energy need and contribute to the development and empowerment of camp residents. This research aims to answer the question of "To what extent can community-based governance approaches for solar mini-grids provide energy access in refugee camps?". A case study is conducted by applying the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) framework to understand the decision-making processes regarding energy provision in the Kigeme refugee camp. Desk research and expert interviews are conducted to understand the interactions between the actors, outcomes of policy decisions, and challenges of using solar mini-grids in displacement settings. The results show that giving the ownership of the system to refugee communities or a cooperative of camp residents is an ambitious goal due to political and institutional reasons. However, a sense of ownership can be created by using participatory activities during planning, design, implementation, and operation and maintenance of the system to increase the resilience of refugees and improve the sustainability of the system.

The dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term visions of the future; scenarios. Outdated scenarios will result in future pathways that are no longer achievable and therefore reduces their relevance and usefulness for making decisions. As some uncertainty is resolved over time, while other uncertainties arise, it is important to take these changes into account. Although the need to update scenarios to create meaningful insight for making decisions is clearly recognized, a clear and structured method for executing this process remains unclear. I propose that to configure a solution, two concepts need to be introduced 1) scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) changes considered should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different layers distinguished. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a generic framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date, guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. Within a test case the framework is applied to four scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios.

EU climate goals force EU member states to increase the share of renewable electricity generation in their respective electricity markets. To reach these climate goals, offshore wind energy is regarded as one of the main technologies that can contribute to a full transition towards a fossil-free electricity system. Furthermore, 230 Gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind is projected to be necessary within the EU. Additionally, the EU has the objective to further integrate electricity markets within its member states. This further integration will therefore need a substantial increase in interconnection capacity between the current electricity markets. Both the increase in offshore wind energy and the increase in interconnection capacity will require offshore electricity transmission infrastructure. Currently, offshore wind generation is connected through individual (radial) offshore grid connections and interconnection capacity used for cross border trade is still developed through point-to-point interconnection. However, a meshed offshore grid (MOG) can combine the aforementioned functions of evacuating offshore wind and interconnect electricity markets. Additionally, a MOG is expected to provide additional economic benefits compared with the individual development of offshore wind farms (OWF) grid connections and the interconnection capacity between electricity markets. While a MOG can provide potential economic benefits, current development of a MOG is still lacking, caused by a variety of economic and regulatory knowledge gaps that need to be addressed. One of these knowledge gaps is which governance model, that allocates the responsibilities regarding the ownership and operation of such a MOG, is preferable for coordinated offshore grid developments. This research project is therefore focussing on this knowledge gap. In order to address this gap, an analytical framework is created through a literature review and desk research that provides both a foundation to conceptually develop the design space of a governance model, while also providing the tools to analyse the expected performance of a governance model. Additionally, a quantitative comparative analysis of currently applied governance models for individual OWF grid connections is performed to provide input for the analysis of governance models that can be applied for a MOG. Through the design space, four different governance models were constructed and analysed, based on the analytical framework. Three of the constructed governance models rely on long-term contracts and further unbundling of electricity grid activities (being electricity transmission and system operation), while one governance model (the TSO model) relies on regulation and bundling of the electricity grid activities. The analysis of these governance models shows that there is no optimal governance model. However, to facilitate the efficient deployment of a MOG, the TSO model is considered most preferable, as this governance model is able to facilitate the gradual development of a MOG, while also facilitating efficient operation by limiting coordination issues that can arise due to unbundling. This model will rely on current owners of the TSOs to provide the necessary investment capital and it remains to be seen whether these owners have the willingness to do so, provided the enormous scale of investments to reach EU climate goals.

Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves rank emission abatement options according to their marginal implementation cost and are an extremely popular tool to draft energy strategies. Although relevant and elegant, MAC curves are often insufficient to justify the implementation of abatement options, as many of the ones ranked financially convenient are not fully realized. The Y-factor method is an alternative approach to emission abatement curves, highlighting the relevance of 12 implementation barriers related to Costs, Multi-actor complexity, Physical interdependencies and Behavioral changes. This investigation applies the Y-factor method to construct a new emission abatement curve, validating its characterizing scores with experts. The obtained Y-curve exposes the relevance of many implementation barriers not capture by MAC curves, as financial barriers are found to account for only 30% of all the considered implementation barriers; the relevance of non-financial barriers helps explaining the reasons for which abatement options considered financially convenient are not implemented. The interviews with experts also verify the relevance of each of the 12 considered factors, each of which is found to be explicitly hampering the implementation of abatement options. Moreover, new insights are highlighted for each of the considered abatement options comparing their ranking in the Y-curve with their respective ranking in McKinsey's global cost curve. The constructed Y-curve and the Y-factor method are successively discussed with players responsible and/or consulted for drafting energy strategies in The Netherlands, namely the Ministerie van Economische Zaken en Klimaat, PBL, ECOFYS. The proposed Y-curve is accepted and the Y-factor method is found able to provide supportive insights to sustainable strategy-making. Moreover, the consulted energy strategists envisioned applications of the the Y-factor method for Policy-making, Analytical researches, and for drafting Business strategies. Lastly, a new tool integrating figures from McKinsey's global cost curve and the Y-curve is presented, as an example of possible new tools developed combining the different existing approaches to emission abatement. These new insights expose hidden complexities and thus further support the elaboration of effective and cost-efficient energy strategies and sustainable societal development.

In the Netherlands, it is envisaged that hydrogen will play a crucial role in the energy transition. Especially in this heavy industry, hydrogen will become essential to make this sector sustainable. In general, three types of hydrogen are used: grey, blue, and green hydrogen. This study focuses on green hydrogen, as it is produced without CO2 emissions and therefore complies with the climate goals of the Netherlands. Using green hydrogen in these industries is useful because it can accomplish easy and cost-efficient significant reductions in this sector. However, some stabilizing pressures (stabilizing pressures), such as the suppliers' lack of a business case and there are more, hinder this transition and keep the incumbent regime based on fossil fuels in position. Fortunately, some destabilizing pressures (destabilizing pressures) stimulate the transition, such as the Paris Climate Agreement. Policy instruments can stimulate these destabilizing pressures and overcome stabilizing pressures. To get the transition started, the Dutch government will have to deploy policy instruments. For the Dutch government, it is currently unknown which policy instruments can accomplish this. The aim of this research is to conduct an analytical framework to assess policy instruments on the identified pressures and give an advice to the Dutch government which policy instruments should be deployed. Two streams of literature are combined into an analytical framework that can assess policy instruments to answer this research question: the transition literature and the economic literature. The outcome of the case study of the heavy industry in the Netherlands is the identification of six stabilizing pressures. The first is a lack of coordination as the necessary policies and regulations are not yet to facilitate the transition. Furthermore, there is no business case for green hydrogen yet. Next, the learning process has to be stimulated, as the development of the technology is moving slow. To foster the transition, it is crucial to have powerful actors involved. At last, a hydrogen market has to be established to accelerate the transition. Also, one destabilizing pressure is identified: the industry sector has a lot of hydrogen experience, which positively influences the transition. These are the pressures on which the policy instruments will be assessed in this research. The following policy instruments will be assessed on their contribution to transition: a higher national CO2 price for the industry sector, Carbon contracts for Difference, a subsidy of the supply, a subsidy for demand, and a financial contribution for the construction of the infrastructure. These are the policy instruments that will be assessed by the identified pressures. It is advisable for the Dutch government to deploy a policy mix of multiple policy instruments to impact all identified pressures positively. This research shows that a combination of a subsidy for supply, financial support for infrastructure development, and CCfD complement each other. This policy mix has therefore been found adequate to stimulate the hydrogen transition in the heavy industry in the Netherlands.

The Netherlands currently lacks a large scale aggregation system which can unlock decentralised flexibility to improve the reliability of the electricity grid in the presence of a significant amount of variable renewable energy sources. In this reserach, the aggregator blockchain technology is perceived as an enabler for a decentralised flexibility model. It is however uncertain how the implementation of both systems fit technically and institutionally in the environment of the Dutch electricity sector. This paper analyses implications of the aggregator and blockchain technology in unlocking decentralised flexibility by considering a system integration approach. Using the comprehensive design framework, a conceptualisation of system integration in energy infrastructures, many challenges regarding the aggregator and blockchain as flexibility model have been identified. Both systems have shown to have major implications that need to be overcome to ensure successful system integration.

To meet the goal of the European Union of becoming climate neutral in 2050, the Netherlands and North West Europe will integrate more and more variable renewable energy sources (VRE) into their power system. The uncertain weather conditions on which the VRE are dependent, will increase the need for a more flexible power system. An important measurement to control the balance of supply and demand in a power system with a lot of variable renewable energy is curtailing the excess power of renewable energy. However, the large amount of renewable energy that is currently integrated will result in an increase in lost power through curtailment. This increase in lost power can result in renewable energy projects (current and future) not getting the expected economic benefits, which can result in less investments in these projects. To prevent this, it is necessary to reduce this curtailment by either storing the otherwise lost power with batteries or by using it through sector coupling possibilities such as power-to-heat, power-to-gas, or power-to-mobility. The aim of this study is to research the potential of sector coupling options and batteries in utilizing the lost power from VRE curtailment by means of the IRENA FlexTool. In order to reach the objective of this study, two scenarios were used on two scales, the Netherlands and North West Europe and were modeled with the IRENA FlexTool. In order to compare the different sector coupling possibilities and batteries, an optimal design of experiments was used. The results of the sector coupling and batteries in this design of experiment were compared on their levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the loss of load and curtailment of the power system. The study showed that the IRENA FlexTool is better suited to model smaller energy systems to gain a quick insight into the flexibility issues of loss of load and curtailment, instead of modelling larger complex energy systems. The modelling results of the IRENA FlexTool shows that the costs for utilizing the lost power of curtailment and avoiding loss of load differs for the Netherlands and North West Europe. For North West Europe, batteries have the lowest LCOE when almost all lost power trough curtailment is used. Hydrogen provides a good solution for the loss of load. Therefore, both battery storage and hydrogen could be a good substitution for natural gas in NWEU. For the Netherlands hydrogen storage is the option with the lowest LCOE when all lost power through curtailment is used and loss of load is avoided. Therefore, hydrogen could provide a good substitution for natural gas in the Netherlands. The difference in LCOE can be explained through the allocation of the power use of batteries and sector coupling, but this is not included in this study. Future research should focus on the interaction between the different options. This could provide useful results on how to efficiently allocate and use battery storage and sector coupling, when they are used in combination with each other.

Uprising innovative technologies like blockchain and the Internet of Things are increasingly changing the energy domain. These disruptive technologies are becoming more mainstream as a result of media attention and are supported by large multinationals like Tesla and Google. This combined with the enormous CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels and increased number of black-outs has resulted in a growing societal need for self-owned and self-generated renewable energy. More and more communities are forming intending to produce their own energy and to sell their excess energy to their neighbours via local energy markets. This concept of local energy markets can theoretically be realised via the use of a blockchain. However, the manner in which and by whom this ideally shall be done is inconclusive. This research aimed to identify how the proposed business models are impacted by the blockchain facilitating local energy markets. This was done by stress testing the innovated business models against the identified uncertainties and scenarios that the blockchain and the transitioning energy domain bring forth. It was found that the business models of the Distribution System Operator and Supplier are despite several challenges feasible whereas the business model for the commercial/industrial prosumer is not and is advised to make a market entry at a later stage.

The goal of this thesis is to determine the effects of integrating blue hydrogen into the Dutch energy system. A new framework is presented to assess several different designs for the business model, infrastructure, and market. This framework is applied to the case of the H-vision project. Three business models are tested against three energy system designs. As such we can determine if which of the three combinations presents the most benefits and also which combination is the most likely to be executed. I invite everyone to read this thesis with a heuristic perspective to learn more about the hydrogen economy and the Dutch energy system. I hope it will be as educating for you as it has been for me.

A transition to V2G is hampered by many barriers, such as battery degradation and high investment cost. A dramatic shift towards autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the future transport system drastically changes the conditions for a transition to V2G, potentially resulting in a more flexible V2G system that efficiently deals with bidirectional flows between AVs and the electricity grid and the transport of passengers. Despite the beneficial effects AVs might have on a V2G transition, there is a lack of scientific research into the joint development of these technologies. This research bridges this knowledge gap by exploring the potential effects of autonomous battery electric vehicles on the performance of V2G for two scenarios: privately-owned unshared AVs and fleet-owned shared AVs. While privately-owned unshared AVs are expected to not have significant effects, fleet-owned shared AVs in combination with charging hubs are expected to enhance the performance of V2G because the ability to provide spinning reserve improves, the investment cost of the charging infrastructure decreases, negative impact on the distribution network can be controlled, and range anxiety disappears. However, uncertainties related to the potential revenues of some drivers and the impact of V2G on battery degradation remain an issue and require further research. In addition, the development of fleet-owned shared AVs is expected to include an on-demand business model that maximises the utilisation rate of AVs for mobility services because the value of renting out the vehicle is much higher than the value of V2G. If the final development path would contain this business model, the priority for V2G would be minimised which would create a new, insurmountable barrier that destroys the business case for V2G systems.