The Indonesian government has set a target to increase new and renewable energy sources in the energy mix by 23% in 2030 and 31% in 2050, which are to be met by investing in hydropower and geothermal energy capacity mainly. However, Indonesia has abundant other renewable energy potentials, which are largely untapped. The Java-Madura-Bali (Jamali) system is Indonesia's largest electricity system. Integration of variable renewable energy resources requires flexibility options such as grid expansion and short- and long-term electricity storage. This research aims to fill the knowledge gap in the literature on the effect that different carbon emission reduction limits have on the Jamali power system design in 2050. This was done by studying the potential of various promising renewable energy technologies (solar photovoltaics, on- and offshore wind, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), geothermal and hydropower) in combination with short- and long-term storage (lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen storage) and grid expansions to mitigate renewable variability. For this purpose a techno-economic model was developed that optimizes operation and capacities of generation, storage and network simultaneously. The model simulates the system dynamics in the Jamali system in 2050 and was implemented in Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA). It was found that there is an exponential relationship between system costs and carbon emission reductions in the Jamali power system. Additionally, only moderate system cost increases were found up to 80% emission reductions compared to the reference scenario with no emission mitigation efforts. At higher carbon reduction scenarios the solar capacities reach their maximum installable capacities. As a result, system cost increase exponentially due to the need for OTEC and offshore wind capacities. The high costs increases by offshore wind can be explained by the uniform costs and coarse resolution of the model. In low carbon scenarios high battery capacities were found and network expansion is limited. It is concluded that the Jamali network cannot smooth the variability of wind throughout the power system, therefore, without storage capacities the system cost almost double. On the other hand, the network remains important to transport electricity from rich renewable regions to large demand centers. Based on the results three recommendations were proposed related to the reconsideration of the energy targets for 2050, strategy to achieve the targets and present policies. ... Read more

This research examines the possible pathways and available technologies that will help the shipping sector to achieve the climate goals set by the IMO. Reaching these goals will require financial incentives and policies regarding sustainability. These policies need to describe regulations at both international and regional level given the maritime sector’s 3% contribution to GHG emissions (Tatar & ÖZER, 2018).Previous research examines only the performances of the new technologies. This research includes both aspects to assess the different options, from the sustainable point of view as the business point of view.The goal of this researchwas to investigate the possibilities to apply renewable energy sources to a vessel that transports polymetallic nodules from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone to Mexico in order to reduce the carbon footprint. Besides this, also look into which of these possibilities has the lowest costs. For this purpose, multiple propulsion drive train systems were examined which were based on the Panamax Leda C. The behavior of these new propulsion systems was examined to answer the following research question: “Which currently existing energy source(s) can be used to transport the polymetallic nodules from the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture zone to the coast of Mexico, a 2200 km route, and whose operational use is technically feasible in five years, in the most sustainable way and with the lowest costs?". To answer this research question, the following steps have been undertaken. First current technologies and their state, were analysed using technology readiness levels (TRLs). The known data was established which included the cargo, the requirements for the fleet, the total days at sea, total amount of nodules collected in one year and the buffer of the mining vessel. With this information an optimal base case was determined in terms of energy consumption and costs. The base case is a Panamax bulk carrier called the Leda C with a deadweight of 81526 dwt.Two different key performance indicators (KPIs) were set to analyse the different performance systems. These KPIs are the emission reduction per tonne collected nodules in %/tonne and the costs per tonne collected nodules in $/tonne.To examine the different propulsion systems, their performances had to be checked for this specific route. In this route analysis there is looked at the probability of the wind, which was necessary to calculate the performances of the wind assisted ship propulsion (WASP) systems. Drive trains of the different propulsion systems were schematically given and analyzed to understand which systems should be implemented for the different propulsion systems. After this, the components of each propulsion was checked, looking at their performance, sizes and costs.The costs of the total drive trains of the different propulsion systems were elaborated. Finally, three different scenarios were chosen to examine the KPIs of the different propulsions.It is concluded that the most cost-effective technology for the RE on board systems is the Flettner rotor and for the alternative fuels this is biofuel (HVO). The propulsion systems discussed in this research will only be attractive when the CO2 tax will increase. It is concluded that the higher the carbon tax, the more attractive the alternative fuels become in terms of cost effectiveness.The advice for Allseas will be, if nothing changes, to not install a sustainable energy propulsion system. Because all systems will be more expensive than the base case. If regulations make it necessary to reduce emissions, it is advised to install the Flettner rotor in hybrid with the current engine. ... Read more

Thirteen percent of the world’s population currently does not have access to electricity. This lack of access to electricity limits the overall development. Having access to clean energy can provide education access, productivity and possibilities for economic growth. Frugal innovations are new or improved products, with a lower cost and fewer used resources in their production chain, while maintaining quality, achieving predefined criteria, fulfilling a specific purpose and are user-friendly. Frugal solar-photovoltaic systems, are one of the possible technologies that could be able to contribute to reducing the number of people without access to electricity. Despite the potential of frugal solar-PV systems for reducing energy poverty, market diffusion of these innovations is not a given. Political risks can pose a barrier to the market diffusion of these innovations, due to endangering a stable environment for development and investments.
However, the span of this relationship, specifically in the combination with frugal solar-PV systems, is unknown. To analyse this, the following main research question has been posed in this research: ‘To what extent is there a relationship between political risks and the market diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems?’. The answer to this research question has been researched with a mixed-methods research approach. First, a quantitative analysis is performed with a correlation analysis. The second phase includes qualitative research. Based on the results of the quantitative results, the factors which could influence the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems in Uganda and Namibia are analysed with means of case studies and interviews.
The correlation analysis showed that there is no relationship between political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems. There are too little significant results to convince that there is a relationship between the political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems worldwide and per continent. Given the fact that this is a research area where little operationalising has been done so far, it is also important to find possible explanations for this result. Based on the case studies and interviews, it can be stated that that there are more factors playing a role in the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems than the included political risks. For example, the need for frugal innovations, (renewable) energy technologies which are already invested in, the varying degree of involvement of foreign investors and non-governmental organisations, the history of relationships with other countries and current trading agreements.
To conclude, this research has contributed to the knowledge gaps and scientific debates in the frugal innovation field by looking at the market diffusion of these systems and the possible role political risks can play in this process. Valuable knowledge has been gathered, which has contributed in filling in gaps in academic research: political risks have been operationalised, a contribution has been made in the field of diffusion theories, specifically for frugal innovations, and the scope of the extent of a relationship between political risks and the diffusion of frugal solar-PV systems has been determined. The results of this research can hopefully on the long term contribute to increasing the percentage of people having access to affordable and renewable generated electricity and reducing the energy poverty worldwide. ... Read more

As global climate change concerns intensify, the European Union aims towards the decarbonization of its Member States. Over the last decade, hydrogen has received increasing attention as a vital element to achieve this decarbonization. However, the diffusion of hydrogen in the European Union is critically dependent on the emergence of a pipeline transmission infrastructure. This research aims towards the generation of a robust European hydrogen infrastructure between 2030 and 2050. To do so, a novel methodology combining Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) and graph theory is proposed. The essence of this methodology is to generate a network that performs well over a wide range of plausible futures. Results of this research highlight that a sizeable European hydrogen network may emerge towards 2050 with Italy and Germany at its core. In 2030, multiple relatively small networks may arise around Italy, Germany and the Benelux. These components can be expected to grow in size by 2040 but nevertheless stay disconnected. As of 2050, a cohesive European network spanning from the Balkan in the East to France in the West may emerge, connecting the previously disconnected networks. ... Read more

How well spent is public money concerning sustainability goals? How effective and efficient are these policies? Even though it is widely acknowledged that actions against climate change are urgently needed in the near future, policy makers little insight in how potential policies can be designed most effectively. To evaluate the impacts of sustainability policies on industry, such as carbon taxes and hydrogen subsidies, policies should be included within industrial cluster models. This policy modelling approach leads to effective and efficient use of public finance and time. This research foresees in this demand by applying a module thinking strategy. This allows for the creation of plug-and-play policy modules that can be used in future research to determine the most effective or efficient policy to achieve sustainable industrial clusters. To this end, scope variables are identified that provide buttons to design policies. Future research should focus on validating these scope variables to a further extend and potentially enable generalisation of the policy modules. The authors choice to use linear optimization resulted in only being able to evaluate generation based policies (like feed-in tariffs). Designing also investment based policies (like lump-sum subsidies) requires further attention. ... Read more

Comparative study on the necessary upgrade in European interconnections to sustain solar and wind sources uptake in the energy mix. Grid Development for most difficult borders, and planning recommendations, to reach Paris compatible scenario by 2040. ... Read more

The city of Rotterdam must find a way to transition away from natural gas for heating the built environment before 2050. Among the alternatives for future spatial heating is district heating, as residual heat is abundantly available in the Rotterdam harbour. Currently, a small part of the Rotterdam South area is covered by the district heating network (DHN). There is room for expansion of the existing DHN, but the available residual capacity is limited. Also, Rotterdam South has a mixed buildings stock, which could allow for the possibility of exploring a cascaded DHN. However, it is unclear what the future network should look like that fits the criteria of stakeholders best. Twelve possible configurations are tested and evaluated using a minimal cost network model. The objective is to minimize overall network cost and connect all the demand in Rotterdam South. The best configuration is the network where all main collection points are supplied by high temperature heat and where additional capacity is added on top of the existing transport network. The building stock mix in Rotterdam South is not optimal for cascading, which results in higher costs for a connection and a lower overall connectivity. ... Read more

The concept of a hydrogen economy has gain renewed attention as a way to enable a cost-effective transition to a low-carbon society. The adoption of hydrogen as an energy carrier beyond its current non-energetic use is however faced with deep uncertainty, making decision-making on policy support difficult. The state-owned enterprise (SOE) is evaluated as a particular type of policy support that may be implemented. SOEs are generally uniquely positioned in the energy system, due to their connection to policy-makers, their access to capital and their ownership of existing assets. An agent-based model (ABM) is created to evaluate the effects of SOEs on the emergence of a sustainable hydrogen economy. The model is experimented with using an exploratory modelling and analysis (EMA) approach. The results show that the SOE can strongly reduce the carbon intensity of hydrogen production, depending on the specific mandate used. A national carbon tax can achieve this effect as well, but the SOE has the added benefit of providing capital to asset investments, stimulating knowledge sharing and enabling investment in riskier technologies. This last benefit is especially important if the SOE is used to enable early deployment of electrolyser technologies. Further measures would have to be taken to facilitate this deployment, because in the coming decades electrolysers will remain far from cost-competitive under most market conditions. ... Read more

Most countries have shown their concern towards global warming and made commitments to decrease carbon emissions. Energy usage will have to become more efficient and generated by an increasing amount of sustainable resources. Hard-to-abate industries will require incentives to decarbonize their processes. Research shows that consumer-facing companies (CFCs) are willing to and can incentivize upstream production to decarbonize processes. Literature research concludes that steel, ammonia, methanol and refineries are highly dependent on hydrogen to be decarbonized. Demand sectors of these heavy industries are analyzed to identify potential demand for hydrogen-based products, and whether their value proposition towards consumers increases using hydrogen-based products. Some case studies on CFCs using heavy industry’s products do confirm this. A table with scores per industry is provided to show the relative degree of downstream capability and willingness to decarbonize upstream production. The research shows that the steel sector will be the most applicable industry to be incentivized from a CFC’s perspective, followed by ammonia and to less extent methanol and refineries. CFC initiated decarbonization mechanisms are qualitatively sorted and discussed for applicability on hydrogen-based transition. The mechanisms holding the highest potential to initiate upstream decarbonization are discussed regarding applicability for the steel industry. Business model innovation, industry & sector level collaboration, performance standards and industry & market standards are considered to have the highest potential among CFC mechanisms to reduce risks in transitioning upstream industries. ... Read more

To meet the goal of the European Union of becoming climate neutral in 2050, the Netherlands and North West Europe will integrate more and more variable renewable energy sources (VRE) into their power system. The uncertain weather conditions on which the VRE are dependent, will increase the need for a more flexible power system. An important measurement to control the balance of supply and demand in a power system with a lot of variable renewable energy is curtailing the excess power of renewable energy. However, the large amount of renewable energy that is currently integrated will result in an increase in lost power through curtailment. This increase in lost power can result in renewable energy projects (current and future) not getting the expected economic benefits, which can result in less investments in these projects. To prevent this, it is necessary to reduce this curtailment by either storing the otherwise lost power with batteries or by using it through sector coupling possibilities such as power-to-heat, power-to-gas, or power-to-mobility. The aim of this study is to research the potential of sector coupling options and batteries in utilizing the lost power from VRE curtailment by means of the IRENA FlexTool. In order to reach the objective of this study, two scenarios were used on two scales, the Netherlands and North West Europe and were modeled with the IRENA FlexTool. In order to compare the different sector coupling possibilities and batteries, an optimal design of experiments was used. The results of the sector coupling and batteries in this design of experiment were compared on their levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the loss of load and curtailment of the power system. The study showed that the IRENA FlexTool is better suited to model smaller energy systems to gain a quick insight into the flexibility issues of loss of load and curtailment, instead of modelling larger complex energy systems. The modelling results of the IRENA FlexTool shows that the costs for utilizing the lost power of curtailment and avoiding loss of load differs for the Netherlands and North West Europe. For North West Europe, batteries have the lowest LCOE when almost all lost power trough curtailment is used. Hydrogen provides a good solution for the loss of load. Therefore, both battery storage and hydrogen could be a good substitution for natural gas in NWEU. For the Netherlands hydrogen storage is the option with the lowest LCOE when all lost power through curtailment is used and loss of load is avoided. Therefore, hydrogen could provide a good substitution for natural gas in the Netherlands. The difference in LCOE can be explained through the allocation of the power use of batteries and sector coupling, but this is not included in this study. Future research should focus on the interaction between the different options. This could provide useful results on how to efficiently allocate and use battery storage and sector coupling, when they are used in combination with each other. ... Read more

This thesis describes the identification and cost calculation of WACC1 stabilizing support mechanisms for new Dutch offshore wind parks, which are funded with PPA2 based project financing facilities, in a non-SDE+3 and electricity price volatile market. ... Read more

To comply with the 2020 targets for reducing greenhouse gas GHG emissions, the government of the Netherlands ordered to close the coal-fired power plant at Hemweg 8 by the end of the year 2019 and Vattenfall aims to utilise this valuable location in the harbour of Amsterdam for production of green hydrogen and other renewable alternatives. The objective of this research project was to analyse multiple technical designs, using dynamic simulation, of a wind-powered energy system to produce hydrogen for mobility and industries at the Hemweg 8 location. The technical characteristics of hydrogen production, storage and transport were analysed in the case study of the Hemweg and a general evaluation of the issues that are relevant regarding the introduction of a windpowered energy system was conducted. The wind turbines located near the Hemweg were used as a renewable energy source. The present and future hydrogen demands were evaluated and a growing demand for hydrogen is expected. Thereafter, different demand scenarios were determined for the present time and in 2030. A system comparison was made to verify if a wind-powered hydrogen energy system is indeed a viable option for the Hemweg location. Therefore, 4 different system configurations have been evaluated: a hydrogen-energy system with an Alkaline electrolyser and a polymer electrolyte membrane PEM electrolyser, both at 1 MW and 2 MW. All systems have been evaluated for two moments in time: the present time and the year 2030. For the present time, technologies were used that are readily on the market. For the 2030 scenario, expected advancement in technologies were included. The energy demand is met using wind energy. In case the energy supply is too low, grid electricity is used to provide additional supply. The hydrogen is transported in compressed form and transported at 200 bar to different industries and to fuelling stations for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV ) and hydrogen-powered ships. The wind-powered hydrogen energy systems were modelled in MATLAB and SIMULINK to calculate the amount of hydrogen each electrolyser can produce and how much electricity of the wind turbine is used. When there is lower demand for hydrogen, the electrolysers do not work at nominal load all the time, leading to a higher efficiency. In order to include the change in efficiency, the Alkaline and the PEM electrolyser were both dynamically modelled in detail for each scenario. An economic analysis of each system-configuration was performed. Important factors that influence the amount of hydrogen output and the levelised cost of the hydrogen are: the running time, partial load performance, output pressure and the share of renewable energy used. The economic analysis and system comparison show that the Alkaline electrolyser with a size of 2 MW produces hydrogen at the lowest levelised cost for the present scenario. For the 2030 scenario, the PEM electrolyser at a 2 MW size is the lowest in levelised cost and is competitive with green hydrogen production prices found on the market. For the present scenario, the hydrogen production cost of the system is 3.8 e/kg and the dispensing price for FCEV is 6.7 e/kg, when working full-time at nominal load. The production cost and the dispensed hydrogen fuel cost price for the future scenario will reduce to 3.2 e/kg and 5.1 e/kg, respectively, which makes the hydrogen a competitive fuel in comparison to the fuel price of gasoline. From the research findings, it was concluded that the WACC and the cost of electricity supplied by the wind turbine have a large impact and the CAPEX of the electrolyser has a minor impact on the levelised cost of hydrogen. A hydrogen energy system at the Hemweg, powered by wind and grid electricity, is accessed as technological feasible and cost competitive. ... Read more

In this thesis the Dutch consumer’ trade-off between hydrogen fuel cell technology and battery electric vehicles has been studied and identified which policy factors are effective to enable a FCEV breakthrough in the Netherlands. The consumer trade-off between different vehicle attributes is estimated by applying a discrete choice experiment and using the choice data to build a discrete choice model. A multinomial logit model was used to estimate the taste coefficients and based on this obtained coefficients the attribute importance is estimated. In order to understand the importance of policy factors we simulated different policy options to assess the impact on the market shares of FCEVs and BEVs. Finally, policy recommendation are made based on the policy effectiveness and its cost-effectiveness and feasibility. ... Read more

The Netherlands aims to reduce GHG emissions by 95% by 2050 compared to 1990. Hydrogen is seen as a potential energy carrier in the Netherlands by 2050. To what extent hydrogen will be implemented is unknown, because many applications are possible. Hydrogen shows potential for (1) carbon free feedstock for process industry, (2) carbon free energy carrier of high temperature heat in process industry, (3) energy storage and transport capacity to enable renewables, (4) transport, and (5) built environment. The presence of a natural gas grid is a driver for implementation of hydrogen. This research aims to provide concrete roadmaps for hydrogen futures based on earlier studies, to explore the possibilities for hydrogen development. For this study, no new visions are created with workshops, but existing studies are compared and the key takeaways provide the input for visions. To develop actual roadmaps, a backcasting study has been conducted. Backcasting studies normally do not have prior visions. However, in this study backcasting has been implemented to explore concrete changes and actions that are necessary for development of hydrogen to fulfil the visions that resulted from the existing studies. The results of the backcasting analysis are placed in time to form a roadmap for hydrogen visions. Key actors and policy measures are determined to realize the visions. The following results and conclusion can be made. First, hydrogen plays a role in industrial clusters in the Netherlands. Potential for future hydrogen markets strongly depends on the further development of the energy system and alternatives in the different sectors. Electrolysis and SMR with CCS to some extent are production methods to make hydrogen production cleaner. Depending on new markets, more stakeholders will become involved in the current hydrogen system. Based on existing visions and scenarios, three visions have been constructed. The constructed visions are based on hydrogen as secondary energy carrier and hydrogen as primary energy carrier. Often hydrogen is compared to electricity. Vision 1: All electric. Vision 1 describes a system where electricity is used as the primary energy source. Hydrogen plays an important role in flexibility of the energy system. Electrolysis has to be scaled to provide flexibility. Vision 2: One integrated system. Vision 2 describes a system where hydrogen and electricity are integrated. Hydrogen is implemented in built environment, industry for high temperature heating, heavy vehicle transport and inland navigation. Vision 3: Go hydrogen. Vision 3 describes a system where hydrogen is implemented to its full potential. Every action is to enable a large hydrogen economy in 2050. For further research, the approach of vision comparison could be further developed. Second, combining models with pathways studies may provide a better insight in the bottlenecks between technical possibilities and realisation of the vision. Third, workshops could be conducted for a similar study to gain more detailed insights on roadmapping approach and to provide more platform between stakeholders. ... Read more

The exponential growth of variable renewable energy sources creates technical challenges in the electricity networks. An innovative solution for these problems is, implementing electrical energy storage into these networks. The liberalised energy system in the Netherlands gives the possibility for multiple actors to become owners of such storage system. The differences in conditions and objectives make for the storage to be used differently. The biggest distinction is made in where, before and after transmission, the cost allocation of the actor is situated. Before transmission, the storage capacity strategy is dependent on portfolio contents and balancing market incentives. After transmission, a daily cycle appears to be the best strategy to minimise costs. The shape of this daily cycle is dependent on decentralised generation of electricity. The before transmission positioning of electrical energy storage has significant positive influence on network imbalances. ... Read more

Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves rank emission abatement options according to their marginal implementation cost and are an extremely popular tool to draft energy strategies. Although relevant and elegant, MAC curves are often insufficient to justify the implementation of abatement options, as many of the ones ranked financially convenient are not fully realized. The Y-factor method is an alternative approach to emission abatement curves, highlighting the relevance of 12 implementation barriers related to Costs, Multi-actor complexity, Physical interdependencies and Behavioral changes. This investigation applies the Y-factor method to construct a new emission abatement curve, validating its characterizing scores with experts. The obtained Y-curve exposes the relevance of many implementation barriers not capture by MAC curves, as financial barriers are found to account for only 30% of all the considered implementation barriers; the relevance of non-financial barriers helps explaining the reasons for which abatement options considered financially convenient are not implemented. The interviews with experts also verify the relevance of each of the 12 considered factors, each of which is found to be explicitly hampering the implementation of abatement options. Moreover, new insights are highlighted for each of the considered abatement options comparing their ranking in the Y-curve with their respective ranking in McKinsey's global cost curve. The constructed Y-curve and the Y-factor method are successively discussed with players responsible and/or consulted for drafting energy strategies in The Netherlands, namely the Ministerie van Economische Zaken en Klimaat, PBL, ECOFYS. The proposed Y-curve is accepted and the Y-factor method is found able to provide supportive insights to sustainable strategy-making. Moreover, the consulted energy strategists envisioned applications of the the Y-factor method for Policy-making, Analytical researches, and for drafting Business strategies. Lastly, a new tool integrating figures from McKinsey's global cost curve and the Y-curve is presented, as an example of possible new tools developed combining the different existing approaches to emission abatement. These new insights expose hidden complexities and thus further support the elaboration of effective and cost-efficient energy strategies and sustainable societal development. ... Read more