The world needs to decarbonize, and that includes the transport sector, which accounts for almost a quarter of the GHG emissions. Electrification and hydrogen-powered transport are increasing significantly. But, a new category of hydrogen-based fuels (synthetic fuels) could be part of the solution as well. Synthetic fuels are fuels that are made from CO2 and low-carbon hydrogen. Their use would reduce GHG emissions and mitigate the negative effects we have on climate change. Also, they are compatible with existing infrastructure, which increases the possibility of becoming part of the energy mix in the short term. Despite the increasing attention, there is a lack of literature that combines qualitative research with quantitative insights and a lack of research on the macro-environment of the synthetic fuel system.

This study aims to provide an extensive overview of the critical internal and external uncertainties that influence the synthetic fuel supply chain. Additionally, the study wants to look at the impact of the identified factors by using scenarios to model future developments. Scholars are highlighting the potential of synthetic fuels, and the International Energy Agency expects them to play a role in the future energy mix. However, high costs and regulatory uncertainty might prove to be significant barriers to their development. The synthetic fuel system is complex, and their are a lot of factors with that impact each other and a lot of uncertainty in terms of how key factors will develop in the future. The research question focuses on the potential of synthetic fuels in the future. This research uses an integrated approach to look at the system, as the important factors are highly dependent of each other.

A PESTEL-analysis was done to highlight the different categories of factors influencing the synthetic fuel supply chain. The Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal factors together form the driving forces and uncertainties surrounding synthetic fuels. After an extensive literature study to create thorough understanding of the synthetic fuel system, relevant literature was reviewed and discussed to identify the most important factors and uncertainties. These factors are elaborately discussed and then summarized and categorized. The factors with high impact were done reviewed and discussed further with quantitative experiments. The critical uncertainties were quantified by analyzing scenarios in a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model using the program Linny-R. The mix of qualitative and quantitative research makes it possible to understand the synthetic fuel system better. Using Linny-R, the system was modelled in a simplified way by linking the relevant feedstocks, processes and products. The advantage of Linny-R is that it is very suited for looking at integrated systems. The identified factors have a lot of interdependencies and that makes it interesting to look at the impact of uncertainties on multiple factors at the same time.

The results showed the major impact the energy price and the electrolyzer Capex have on the hydrogen and subsequent synthetic fuel prices, as they are at least twice as expensive as fossil fuels on the short term. The high current prices for renewable energy weigh heavily on the hydrogen costs, which in turn has a major impact on the costs for synthetic fuels. The results also show the importance of renewable energy availability, as the average price increases significantly due to the intermittency of renewable energy sources. This intermittency leads to lower capacity factors for the electrolyzer, which increases the electrolysis costs per tonne hydrogen. These two factors are the main cost drivers of hydrogen and finding the right balance between the capacity factor and cheap energy is key for reaching an optimal synthetic fuel price. Technological developments and efficiency gains will decrease the price significantly in the future. However, it will definitely remain challenging to become competitive in the short term. In the longer term, there is potential if adequate regulatory support is provided and hydrogen prices continue to decrease due to innovation and scalability. Hydrogen production, and even more so, synthetic fuel production in countries with favourable conditions for renewable energy could lead to lower prices than local production. A potential disadvantage is more competition and geopolitical tensions making the supply chain riskier, requiring a higher rate of return. Because the model also incorporated the fossil fuel production and the carbon emissions, the impact of policy could also be taken into account. While the results show that the impact of policy measures like carbon pricing is definitely lower than the impact of significant hydrogen cost reductions, it is clear that this policy does make synthetic fuel production more attractive. The integrated approach of the system shows that multiple developments are needed for the ambition of cost-parity for synthetic and fossil fuels. While this cost-parity may never be reached, under the right circumstances the synthetic fuel price can become very close. Additional policy measures like blend-in quota and higher subsidies could further increase the demand.

The results highlight the challenges but also the potential of synthetic fuels. In order to make them part of the inevitable transition to sustainable alternatives for the transport sector, governments, policymakers, international organisations and customers need to align their efforts to collectively (partly) shift towards synthetic fuels. This is a big opportunity to reduce GHG emissions and reach the climate targets from the Paris Agreement. ... Read more

A reliable, accessible, and affordable electricity provision is crucial for economic development in emerging markets. For some emerging countries, ill-advised policies, unfortunate market development, and a bad starting position together with the already complex nature of the electricity sector caused circular debt to accumulate. Circular debt is a self-reinforcing shortfall of revenue throughout the value chain that tends to look like a “vicious circle” without a proper solution. This study focuses on one of the root causes of circular debt: expensive and inefficient electricity generation. This thesis aims to research the effect of investors’ investment behaviour and the price-setting strategy of market regulators on circular debt in the context of the energy transition. Therefore, this study follows two main steps: (i) an agent-based investment model is used to link actor behaviour to the contracted market prices and the variable renewable energy share, (ii) a qualitative analysis links the model results to the development of circular debt. The results of the agent-based investment model show a decreasing electricity price in all scenarios. Furthermore, the market regulator’s price-setting strategy has a more significant influence on the contracted market price than investors’ investment attitude. In addition, this study’s qualitative research confirms the positive causal relationship between contracted market prices and circular debt of previous studies. However, no conclusions can be drawn about the degree of causality between lower contracted market prices and an improved circular debt position. Finally, the analysis also shows a mismatch between the short-term problem of circular debt and the long-term solution of integrating renewable energy. Integration of variable renewable energy is not a solution for the current circular debt crisis but a vital long-term driver to prevent the repetition of circular debt crises. ... Read more

While the expected rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in The Netherlands could attenuate climate change, new challenges arise.; one challenge is that large-scale penetration of EVs could increase system costs. Specifically addressed is the integration of the EV in the Dutch local grid system: (1) the charging infrastructure and (2) the distribution grid. This thesis introduces the highly efficient Solar Electric Vehicle (SEV), the Dutch Lightyear One, as an alternative for the conventional Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). A SEV is less dependent on the system by its low energy consumption and its integrated solar roof. This thesis aimed at uncovering the differences between the SEV and the BEV to explore to what extent SEVs could reduce the system costs of BEVs in the future energy system. The system integration costs were derived from an approximated load curve of an existing Agent-Based Model that modelled the local electricity demand system in urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhoods. A scenario in 2050 is exploited comparing a 100% BEV fleet with a 100% SEV fleet. The results showed that in a winter week, the SEV reduces the maximum required charging infrastructure up to ~3 times; a belonging cost difference of ~€8 billion was estimated until 2050. The difference is caused by the prognosed Dutch charging behaviour that is influenced by the smart charging strategy; and the low electricity consumption and electricity solar yields of the SEV accounting for respectively ~66% and ~34% of the cost reduction. In contrast to the charging infrastructure, the difference between the SEV and the BEV in grid impact was slightly visible in the peak loads. However, the difference is not significant enough to require extra grid reinforcements for the BEV compared to the SEV; no difference in costs for the grid was presented. In conclusion, an estimated total system cost saving of ~€8 billion caused by the reduced charging infrastructure requirement, was presented in this thesis. In this research, many assumptions were made to approximate the future load curve and the system costs of electric mobility. Due to sensitive parameters, the system costs measured are solely applicable to the scenario that is presented in this thesis. ... Read more

In the Netherlands, it is envisaged that hydrogen will play a crucial role in the energy transition. Especially in this heavy industry, hydrogen will become essential to make this sector sustainable. In general, three types of hydrogen are used: grey, blue, and green hydrogen. This study focuses on green hydrogen, as it is produced without CO2 emissions and therefore complies with the climate goals of the Netherlands. Using green hydrogen in these industries is useful because it can accomplish easy and cost-efficient significant reductions in this sector. However, some stabilizing pressures (stabilizing pressures), such as the suppliers' lack of a business case and there are more, hinder this transition and keep the incumbent regime based on fossil fuels in position. Fortunately, some destabilizing pressures (destabilizing pressures) stimulate the transition, such as the Paris Climate Agreement. Policy instruments can stimulate these destabilizing pressures and overcome stabilizing pressures. To get the transition started, the Dutch government will have to deploy policy instruments. For the Dutch government, it is currently unknown which policy instruments can accomplish this. The aim of this research is to conduct an analytical framework to assess policy instruments on the identified pressures and give an advice to the Dutch government which policy instruments should be deployed. Two streams of literature are combined into an analytical framework that can assess policy instruments to answer this research question: the transition literature and the economic literature. The outcome of the case study of the heavy industry in the Netherlands is the identification of six stabilizing pressures. The first is a lack of coordination as the necessary policies and regulations are not yet to facilitate the transition. Furthermore, there is no business case for green hydrogen yet. Next, the learning process has to be stimulated, as the development of the technology is moving slow. To foster the transition, it is crucial to have powerful actors involved. At last, a hydrogen market has to be established to accelerate the transition. Also, one destabilizing pressure is identified: the industry sector has a lot of hydrogen experience, which positively influences the transition. These are the pressures on which the policy instruments will be assessed in this research. The following policy instruments will be assessed on their contribution to transition: a higher national CO2 price for the industry sector, Carbon contracts for Difference, a subsidy of the supply, a subsidy for demand, and a financial contribution for the construction of the infrastructure. These are the policy instruments that will be assessed by the identified pressures. It is advisable for the Dutch government to deploy a policy mix of multiple policy instruments to impact all identified pressures positively. This research shows that a combination of a subsidy for supply, financial support for infrastructure development, and CCfD complement each other. This policy mix has therefore been found adequate to stimulate the hydrogen transition in the heavy industry in the Netherlands. ... Read more

As the threat of climate change continues to rise, society is put under an increasing pressure to produce less greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Netherlands is struggling to make progress in the energy transition, with only 8,6% of the final energy consumption being generated by renewables in 2019 (CBS, 2020b). To fix this renewable energy generation lag, it is crucial that a thorough understanding is created of how the energy system works, and what its drivers and barriers are. Among others, literature research shows that two of the biggest barriers for the generation of renewable energy are governmental policy as well as investments costs. The fact that governmental policy is one of the biggest barriers is extremely counterintuitive as it is also one of the biggest drivers. Furthermore, although renewable energy generation requires substantially high investment costs, other countries have been able to overcome this barrier, which raises the question as to why this has not yet been the case for the Netherlands. Due to their contradictory nature and their high level of influence, the decision was made to focus on the two barriers by researching the relationship between governmental policy and the investment climate surrounding renewable energy generation. This was done by analysing the effectiveness of policy instruments on the investment climate for two specific technologies, namely smallscale solar photovoltaics (PV) and thermal energy from surface water (TEO). ... Read more

Problem Statement
Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago nation, with 270 million people inhabiting 6,000 islands that span almost 2000 square kilometers (World Population Review, 2020). With 80% of its industries and 60% of its population located in coastal regions, Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to rising sea- levels and extreme weather events (Fünfgeld, 2020). Despite the urgent need to transition towards low carbon energy production, the development of renewables in Indonesia is very slow. In 2019, 84% of electricity was generated from fossil fuels, 59% of which came from coal power plants (IEA, 2020b). Considering the prevailing poverty levels, which stood at 24% in 2018 ($ 3.20/day poverty line), Indonesia is faced with the dual challenge of human development and climate change. Biomass gasification is a particularly interesting option for Indonesia due to the enormous quantities of residues produced from the agriculture and forestry sectors. Activities commenced in the late 1970’s, however, despite over forty years of development the technology has not reached wide-scale diffusion and very few clear examples of commercially viable projects exist. Further investigation is needed to understand how biomass gasification can contribute to energy justice in Indonesia, and which factors have influenced its development over the past forty years.

Research Goals and Research Design
Theory from sustainability transitions research and energy justice are used to develop a framework that facilitates the investigation of: (1) the factors that have influenced the development of the biomass gasification niche, and (2) how niche projects and the electricity sector have performed with respect to energy justice. An integrated Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) and Strategic Niche Management (SNM) frame- work is combined with the energy justice framework of Sovacool, M. Burke, et al., 2017. Explanatory and descriptive research is complemented by exploratory research, that utilises semi-structured expert interviews to gain deeper insights into transition dynamics and energy justice.

Main Findings
The biomass gasification niche has largely relied on international donors to support activities. In 1980 the main landscape pressure motivating donors was energy (in)security during the world oil crises. Many years later, international and domestic interest in biomass gasification increased largely in response to the intensifying landscape pressure to mitigate climate change. Projects have been implemented in rural locations where there is a need to: alleviate poverty, increase electricity access, and reduce diesel fuel consumption. The latter is due to the increasing burden of oil subsidies and rapidly declining domestic oil reserves.

Since 2012 a number of formal rules have been introduced in order to incentivise biomass gasification projects - these started with fixed Feed-in-Tariffs, and later linked the electricity price to the local generation cost of the electricity utility, PLN. Both regulations failed to incentivise commercial projects, while the latter was widely regarded as inhibitory to niche development as PLN’s generation cost is heavily influenced by fossil fuel subsidies (Interviewee 5 - International Project Facilitator, 2020; Interviewee 8 - Government, 2020). The increased use of biomass for cofiring with coal has led to the formation of a domestic market for waste biomass - these feedstocks have since been prohibitively expensive for niche projects.

As the niche network has expanded beyond technical research institutions, the learning processes progressed to learning about policy and regulation, biomass potential, societal and environmental impact, and business models. Knowledge of biomass potential has greatly improved - while the domestic mar- ket for biomass waste has made agribusiness waste prohibitively expensive, the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) has started to investigate the potential of different biomass species for cultivation on degraded land - creating a key opportunity for niche projects to align with the land-use dimension of climate change mitigation. Finally, in CPI’s recent projects, actors have been able to learn more about the societal and environmental impact of biomass gasification - a key source of competitive advantage over other renewable energy niches (discussed below).

However, the success of niche projects to date have been hampered by a variety of socio-technical challenges, several of which still remain - feedstock security, operator training, and business models to facilitate niche expansion. In terms of the actor network, there has been minimal interaction between the different actor groups over the last forty years - this lack of shared learning has meant that actors have not been able to effectively learn from the accumulating experiences of other niche projects, and so resulted in limited examples of reinforcing niche nurturing processes and second-order learning.

Since the earliest niche experiments in 1980, biomass gasification projects have attempted to alleviate some of the injustices caused by Indonesia’s electricity regime. By targeting rural communities that have been marginalised by poor access to energy services, projects have sought to alleviate the intra- generational inequity in the availability of electricity. Through careful project design, actors were able to contribute to improved transparency and accountability and alleviate some injustices that intersect with energy justice. Regarding the latter, the main contribution has been in the targeting of low-income rural communities with limited access to electricity (socio-economic justice), although CPI’s Mentawai project also contributed to improved gender justice.

Recommendations
The key recommendations from this research are: (1) align projects with multiple landscape pressures - choose locations in which these pressures are more intense by comparing biomass potential (agro- industry locations or degraded land for crop cultivation), to the locations of diesel power plants (and regions in which the local generation cost is high), and locations of communities with poor electricity access and limited economic development; (2) accelerate niche development by improving cross-project communication; (3) implement long-term strategy to improve technical knowledge in rural areas so that communities are able to successfully operate and maintain biomass gasification plants, and (4) the Government should adopt an energy justice framework, such as that proposed by Sovacool, M. Burke, et al., 2017, that not only considers distributional justice, but also due process, recognition, restorative, and cosmopolitan justice - this will result in supportive policies that more accurately value the positive energy justice contribution of niche technologies like biomass gasification, and thereby facilitate the large-scale diffusion of these technologies.

Further work
This historical case study can be used as the basis for a participatory future-oriented research project that investigates how the biomass gasification niche can be scaled-up in a just manner - designing a number of scenarios over the short-, medium-, and long-term. Considering the broad scope of Indonesia’s electricity sector, a more comprehensive energy justice analysis is necessary for niche innovations and traditional technologies in order to facilitate fair energy decision-making.

This research has combined an integrated MLP and SNM framework with an energy justice framework. Sovacool’s broad energy justice framework creates a number of opportunities for integrating this analysis into the MLP and SNM frameworks. Academically relevant further research should focus on the integration of energy justice and Sustainability Transitions Research frameworks. ... Read more

Selection of industrial sites is a complex issue that requires careful consideration of a wide range of factors. Classical location decision-making overemphasize the role of economic factors while the energy related factors are often neglected. This research supports the energy transition by means of rethinking the location decision-making problem concerning Energy-Intensive Industries (EIIs). The main objective is to determine how the suitability of sites of industry clusters in Europe will change because of the energy transition. Two industry clusters in Europe are selected and used as test cases for analysis. To offer understanding of the suitability of cluster locations to a changing energy medium, a procedure to conduct analysis is developed and applied. The necessity to develop the analysis procedure is motivated by the lack of a methodology to serve as a commonly accepted framework for the analysis of industrial location problems in the context of energy transitions. The outcomes of the so-called factor analysis procedure enable to reason on the suitability of the sites of the clusters to the envisioned future renewable environment. To ensure validity of data and of findings, insight emerging from the literature and assumptions made by the author, are triangulated with the opinion of stakeholders and experts in the field. The research concludes that the energy transition will have a severe impact on the suitability of sites of the investigated EII clusters in Europe. The rationale being that, state-of-the-art sites are not suitable to a fully transitioned word. Exploring the future points to necessary changes that the sites have to undergo in order to suit a transitioned word. The findings emerging from the analysis, are meant for investors and traders that are interested in siting and industry modernization. Ideally, the methodology developed to study EIIs can be extended to other industrial sectors. I will be necessary to analyze the novel decision space and evaluate the factors at play on the novel location problem under investigation. Future research efforts should internalize the dynamics that govern the location decision of EII clusters described in research and use them to better understand the effects of possible failures of intervention. ... Read more

The global geopolitics of developed countries in the twentieth century was highly shaped by energy geopolitics, which is outmost dependent on the supply and demand of coal, oil and gas. The development and diffusion of renewable energy technology may reshape the geopolitical power in the world. Therefore, the main question that this research aims to answer is:"How does the development of wind and solar energy in Germany affect the current gas trade relations between Germany and Russia?". In order to answer this question, the study creates a framework of analysis that can logically connect the geotechnical characteristics of renewable energy with the patterns of cooperation between Germany and Russia that are based on gas trade. The framework is using four consistent and interconnected steps, analysing the geotechnical characteristics of wind and solar energy, the impact of these characteristics on the German energy security and gas trade patterns, and finally discussing the implications of these changes on the patterns of cooperation between Germany and Russia.
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The field of energy security is dominantly filled with concepts and frameworks built on the characteristics of traditional fossil fuel energy systems. Increasing penetration of renewable energy sources in the energy system brings about novel implications and challenges in the field of energy security. Hydrogen is an increasingly popular option to decarbonize hard to abate sectors or parts of the heating system. The Netherlands has a favourable position and infrastructure for large scale hydrogen roll-out. The objective of this research is to explore how hydrogen utilized in the Dutch built environment affects energy security performance. Moreover, what geotechnical characteristics of hydrogen are responsible for a change in energy security performance. A framework for analysis is constructed and applied to the current Dutch energy system as a reference case and two future energy scenarios. The data requirements are retrieved through desk research and interviews with stakeholders and experts in the field. The research concludes that hydrogen positively affects future energy security performance. The geotechnical characteristics of hydrogen can explain the differences between the results of the scenario. These emphasize a shift in energy dependencies, global hydrogen markets, increased diversity due to the broader system role of hydrogen and efficiency reductions. Future research should focus on different hydrogen production pathways and reassessing the concept of energy security given renewable energy carriers and geopolitics. ... Read more

The energy transition ignites change and fuels modifications in numerous aspects of the society, specifically in the oil and gas industry. Besides, it creates a dynamic environment, an uncertain policy, and an economic environment for international oil companies (IOCs), affecting their business strategies. However, only a few studies focused on the implications of the energy transition on IOCs’ strategies. This paper's main objective was to map the impact of the energy transition on the factors shaping IOCs’ business strategies. By conducting a discourse analysis of annual reports of three IOCs (Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and Equinor), in combination with several interviews. The results reveal that the energy transition is a topic of debate for IOCs. Several factors have known fluctuations in importance over the years due to the energy transition. However, not all these fluctuations in factors are explained by the influence of the energy transition. Also, six new energy transition-related factors are proposed and found to impact the IOCs' strategy. Furthermore, although IOCs are an indispensable part of the puzzle to the energy transition's success, collaboration is vital. The IOC’s renewable investments lag, but the newly presented strategies could move the energy transition from being a topic of debate to a shift of substance. This paper concludes with recommendations for further scientific research. ... Read more

Abstract The technical and geographical characteristics of fossil fuels have shaped interstate energy relations for decades. The ongoing energy transition leads to an increasing share of renewables in the electricity mix. Since technical and geographical characteristics of renewables differ significantly from those of fossil fuels, it is likely that renewables affect energy relations between countries in a different way. It is yet unknown how these deviating characteristics will exactly influence the international energy relations, and evidence from concrete cases is missing. This study therefore examines the geopolitical implications of wind power in the Danish electricity system. The aim is to assess how interstate energy relations shifted between 1990 and 2018, and whether these shifts can be attributed to the technical and geographical characteristics of wind power. A framework of analysis is constructed to outline the geopolitical implications in 1990 and 2018. Desk research and expert interviews are used to obtain the data. The research concludes that the implications of the transition have been rather positive for Denmark. While sometimes depending on its neighbours for electricity supply, Denmark is still able to safeguard energy security, generate revenues and gain global political influence by sharing knowledge. Further research should outline the implications for other types of renewable energy sources and focus on the geopolitical implications of wind power in other regions. ... Read more

There is a pressing need for sustainable energy solutions in refugee camps. Community solar mini-grids, with their costs, reliability, and ease of installation can meet this energy need and contribute to the development and empowerment of camp residents. This research aims to answer the question of "To what extent can community-based governance approaches for solar mini-grids provide energy access in refugee camps?". A case study is conducted by applying the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) framework to understand the decision-making processes regarding energy provision in the Kigeme refugee camp. Desk research and expert interviews are conducted to understand the interactions between the actors, outcomes of policy decisions, and challenges of using solar mini-grids in displacement settings. The results show that giving the ownership of the system to refugee communities or a cooperative of camp residents is an ambitious goal due to political and institutional reasons. However, a sense of ownership can be created by using participatory activities during planning, design, implementation, and operation and maintenance of the system to increase the resilience of refugees and improve the sustainability of the system. ... Read more

The built environment needs to become completely sustainable before 2050. Hydrogen is seen as a suitable resource to help in achieving this goal. In a hydrogen system, the predefined high level of reliability, as stands today, affects the affordability of the system. The households are the users and payers of the system. The method used is Discrete Choce Modeling. This research identifies a gap between the Willingness To Pay (WTP) for reliability and the current cost of this level of reliability. Reliability should not be a goal on its own. The maintained level of reliability should be optimized together with the affordability of the system. ... Read more

As the energy transition evolves, more fossil-driven base-load generation is being replaced with intermittent renewable energy sources. Peak power plants will continue to play a crucial role in future renewable energy systems to complement renewable energy supply. The focus of this thesis is on alternative fuels that can be utilized in conventional gas turbines. Several alternatives fuels exist, such as hydrogen, methanol and bio-fuels, and each alternative fuel has different technical, economic, social and environmental implications for the energy system and the society as a whole. Decision makers across the energy sector face difficult trade-offs between quantitative and qualitative criteria when selecting and alternative technology to invest in. This paper applies the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to select an alternative fuel for a peak power plant in Rotterdam. The fuels analysed are methanol and hydrogen, and are ranked according to nine sub-criteria. Two contributions are proposed to improve the AHP method. Firstly, incorporating a technology readiness level indicator to quantify the technological maturity. Secondly, multiple perspectives are incorporated from key stakeholders in the criteria weighting. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on the most relevant criteria. ... Read more

The goal of this thesis is to determine the effects of integrating blue hydrogen into the Dutch energy system. A new framework is presented to assess several different designs for the business model, infrastructure, and market. This framework is applied to the case of the H-vision project. Three business models are tested against three energy system designs. As such we can determine if which of the three combinations presents the most benefits and also which combination is the most likely to be executed. I invite everyone to read this thesis with a heuristic perspective to learn more about the hydrogen economy and the Dutch energy system. I hope it will be as educating for you as it has been for me. ... Read more

Bioenergy has received less attention in recent times due to its changing negative image. For the EU, bioenergy was considered mostly for its contribution to greening and diversifying its energy mix. While its impact on CO2 emissions is hotly debated, there is a dearth of studies regarding the energy security implications of bioenergy in the EU. This opens up a window of opportunities and challenges to perform such a study. The main research question of this thesis is:What has been the impact of bioenergy on the energy security for the EU from 2000 to 2018?The main research question and the sub-research questions are addressed in the context of the EU economy and its vision for climate mitigation. The thesis starts with the literature review of energy security leading up to framing a new theoretical framework. Past implications of bioenergy that includes biofuels in the last decade and a half since 2000 have been analyzed. The thesis has assessed what bioenergy has delivered in that time. Positive and negative developments are taken into account and analyzed with respect to the selected energy security indicators and metrics.Both ES literature and PEST tool have been employed to narrow down the data gathering and relevance of energy security indicators for bioenergy. The use of the PEST analysis tool also offers a unique combination of elements in the framework and a boarder categorization, which in traditional energy security is often not employed.To get a better overview of EU bioenergy, a review of the current policy of the EU for bioenergy has been done. It presents all relevant data related to bioenergy like various bioenergy potential, total energy consumption, and demand, etc. Then, different characteristics and features of bioenergy are described along with the various conversion routes to obtain different forms of energy (namely biofuels, bio-electricity, and bio-heat) are explained. Some of the projections for 2020 for bioenergy in the EU have also been provided to better gauge the state of availability of resources and likely policy direction taken in the future. The effects on the energy security indicators of bioenergy in the EU have been derived from the data on EU bioenergy and is assessed with respect to the 22 selected energy security indicators and metrics from the analytical framework. A rating of 3.0 here implies no or a little effect for energy security indicator or metric on account of bioenergy, anything above 3.0 is positive, and below 3.0 implies a negative impact. It is found that the overall effects have been slightly positive with an average rating of 3.09 for all the 22 selected ES indicators. With 3.5, for the dimension of ‘technology development and efficiency’, it has a positive effect implying an increase in employment in the bio-sector and high research budget for bioenergy from 2000-2018. However, with a score of 2.9 for the dimension of ‘Environmental & social sustainability’, the effects have been overall negative, implying a negative impact on the environment in the last 18 years. ... Read more

The Dutch government has announced that 7 million houses and 1 million buildings in the service sector need to be provided by sustainable heat in 2050 (Klimaatberaad, 2018b). This is an enormous challenge considering that over 90 percent of the houses and service sector buildings in the Netherlands are currently heated by the local combustion of natural gas (Hans Ariëns, 2018). The objective of this policy measure is in line with the European climate targets to mitigate the effect of climate change (Klimaatberaad, 2018a). Moreover, it helps to facilitate the Dutch policy to stop the natural gas extraction from the largest natural gas field in the Netherlands (Klimaatberaad, 2018a). To achieve the enormous objective in 2050, the Dutch government is choosing a gradual approach and formulated a first clear policy target for 2030. The CO2 emissions of the buildings induced by space heating and domestic water heating need to be reduced by 3,4 Mt compared to the 1990 levels (Klimaatberaad, 2018a). Sustainability measures in the service sector should lead to a reduction of 1 Mt and phasing out natural gas in 1.5 million houses in combination with insulation measures should cover the remainder of 2 Mt (Klimaatberaad, 2018a). To adequately meet the demand for space heating and domestic water heating in 2030 and beyond, alternative heating technologies need to be integrated in the energy infrastructures to provide the desired energy demand to the buildings. Natural gas is currently distributed by means of an extensive gas infrastructure. There is a potential to use the existing infrastructure to distribute and store sustainable gasses such as biomethane or hydrogen (Dodds & McDowall, 2013). Alternative energy infrastructures can also replace the natural gas infrastructure in the satisfaction of the energy demand. Possibilities are the electricity infrastructure and a district heating infrastructure. Energy can also be produced locally from renewable energy sources as biomass, geothermal energy, solar energy, and wind energy ... Read more

This paper presents a new theoretical approach to design a polycentric electricity sector. The study focuses on Lebanon and its electricity sector, and tries to reform the sector using a proposed polycentric structure. The study utilises the polycentric indicators and general structure, along with organisational modes, and electricity market design variables to come up with a standardised stepwise model, i.e. “Polycentric Market Design Framework”, to design a polycentric hybrid electricity sector. This is followed by applying it to the Lebanese case. ... Read more

A transition to V2G is hampered by many barriers, such as battery degradation and high investment cost. A dramatic shift towards autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the future transport system drastically changes the conditions for a transition to V2G, potentially resulting in a more flexible V2G system that efficiently deals with bidirectional flows between AVs and the electricity grid and the transport of passengers. Despite the beneficial effects AVs might have on a V2G transition, there is a lack of scientific research into the joint development of these technologies. This research bridges this knowledge gap by exploring the potential effects of autonomous battery electric vehicles on the performance of V2G for two scenarios: privately-owned unshared AVs and fleet-owned shared AVs. While privately-owned unshared AVs are expected to not have significant effects, fleet-owned shared AVs in combination with charging hubs are expected to enhance the performance of V2G because the ability to provide spinning reserve improves, the investment cost of the charging infrastructure decreases, negative impact on the distribution network can be controlled, and range anxiety disappears. However, uncertainties related to the potential revenues of some drivers and the impact of V2G on battery degradation remain an issue and require further research. In addition, the development of fleet-owned shared AVs is expected to include an on-demand business model that maximises the utilisation rate of AVs for mobility services because the value of renting out the vehicle is much higher than the value of V2G. If the final development path would contain this business model, the priority for V2G would be minimised which would create a new, insurmountable barrier that destroys the business case for V2G systems. ... Read more

The dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term visions of the future; scenarios. Outdated scenarios will result in future pathways that are no longer achievable and therefore reduces their relevance and usefulness for making decisions. As some uncertainty is resolved over time, while other uncertainties arise, it is important to take these changes into account. Although the need to update scenarios to create meaningful insight for making decisions is clearly recognized, a clear and structured method for executing this process remains unclear. I propose that to configure a solution, two concepts need to be introduced 1) scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) changes considered should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different layers distinguished. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a generic framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date, guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. Within a test case the framework is applied to four scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios. ... Read more