According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for high value chemicals (HVC) will increase by 60% to a total of 400 Mt/year by 2050, leading to an increase of 30% in direct CO2 emissions. However, the Paris agreement forces the sector to reduce its emissions by 90-100% in 2050 compared to 1990. This induces the need for a more sustainable character in the petrochemical industry to produce HVC with net-zero emissions by 2050. Steam cracking is expected to be still the leading production technique for HVC in 2050. Therefore, this research focuses only on petrochemical clusters containing a steam cracker. Accordingly, the research question to be answered was: How can existing petrochemical clusters containing a steam cracker be transformed to produce HVC with net-zero emissions in 2050? This thesis aims to look into the potential of alternative feedstocks and combine them with other decarbonisation options for steam cracking to produce HVC with net-zero emissions by 2050 from a cradle-to-gate perspective. A base model was created of a petrochemical cluster containing a steam cracker capable of serving the global market (3900 kt HVC/year) to answer the research question. The base model was used to develop six models with different decarbonisation options capable of accepting alternative feedstock. Decarbonisation options were based on carbon capture and storage (CCS), both post and pre-combustion, electrification and hydrogen. The alternative feedstock was sourced from the renewable materials: vegetable oils, animal fats, crude tall oil and lignocellulosic biomass. Also, plastic waste (recycled) and synthetic (FT wax and naphtha) feedstock made from captured CO2 and hydrogen were included. The maximum percentage of HVC produced from alternative feedstock was assumed to be 25% due to uncertainties and limitations in the availability of alternative feedstock. The rest of the HVC was yielded from a mixture of fossil feedstock (naphtha, LPG, ethane, gas oil and butene). Different experiments were performed to estimate the emission reduction potential of separate or combined decarbonisation options with HVC yields originating from alternative feedstock ranging from 0% to 25%. The supply chain and associated CO2 emissions of the feedstock were also analysed. Next to determining the emission reduction, the quantitative data from the models were also used to assess the levelized cost of zero emissions HVC and the geographical and infrastructural limitations of decarbonisation options. One problem was the residual fossil fuel gas from the process, possibly leading to unwanted emissions elsewhere if not appropriately handled. In conclusion, the only decarbonisation options capable of dealing with this problem are CCS and auto-thermal reforming combined with CCS. Together with renewable feedstock, from a cradle-to-gate perspective, these options are capable of reaching net-zero emissions or even negative emissions when fossil and renewable feedstock supply chain emissions are drastically reduced. For future research, it is advised to not only focus on producing HVC with steam cracking but also consider other greenfield production method capable of producing HVC with renewable resources. A comparison with the proposed pathways in this research would provide valuable insights.

In the transition towards climate neutrality by 2050 green hydrogen can contribute as a clean and widely applicable energy vector. However, domestic production by electrolysis in the Netherlands will not be able to produce enough hydrogen for the estimated demand. Import of hydrogen will thus be crucial. The Port of Rotterdam (PoR) will play a vital role herein as the port has set the goal to become the hydrogen hub of North-Western Europe. To transport hydrogen, solutions are being evaluated since the molecule has a very low volumetric energy density at ambient conditions. Among others, liquid ammonia (LNH3) is under investigation as an import method since it has favourable storage conditions, a flexible end-use, and a high volumetric energy density. After landing in the PoR, ammonia can be decomposed by catalytic cracking. This technology is, however, still under development for this application and economic data on its performance are lacking. Furthermore, this import method must compete against domestic production and is subject to deep uncertainty since characteristics of the novel hydrogen economy are unknown. This study evaluates the impact of uncertainties on the techno-economic performance of various ammonia-based energy hub designs in the PoR in many scenarios. An ammonia-based hub is an import terminal with a catalytic cracker, direct ammonia sale, and a hydrogen fuel cell. The evaluation is performed by answering the following research question: How do uncertainties and competition impact the techno-economic performance of various ammonia-based energy hub designs in the PoR? The core part of this research is performed by computationally modelling the ammonia-based energy hub in the multi-actor field, and simulating its behaviour for numerous possible futures in the period between 2030 and 2040. The first phase of the research is used to find quantitative performance indicators to evaluate the techno-economic performance of an ammonia-based energy hub. Subsequently, an extensive literature research executed to (1) map global and local market actors, (2) research available ammonia decomposition technologies, and (3) find exogenous factors that can be varied numerically in a scenario analysis. Simultaneously, conceptual models are made of energyhub design options and of the multi-actor field in which the hub is situated. In a third research phase, the multi-actor field and the energy-hub are modelled in Linny-R. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem herein; the net cash flow of all actors is the optimization variable in this paradigm. To generate datasets that serve as input for the simulations in Linny-R, a python model has been written. Lastly, generated results from Linny-R are analysed to get insights and formulate recommendations for the PoR and further research.

Climate change is a major global problem which is related to the increase in greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potential solution to this problem. However, the implementation of CCS seems to be challenging. The port of Rotterdam also intended to reduce its CO2 emission with the implementation of CCS. However, the first two CCS projects were not successful. When making investment decisions on innovative technological projects the TRL scale invented by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) can be useful to compare the maturity of technologies. However, for technologies in sociotechnical systems, such as the implementation of CCS, it might be useful to also consider the maturity of the institutional network. Hence, a NRL scale was proposed by Krijger (2016) and Groenendaal (2018). However, before the NRL scale can be widely used it needs first more validation. Furthermore, it is not known how the information obtained from the NRL/TRL matrix can be used to formulated strategy to stimulate the successful implementation of an infrastructural innovation. To research these two aspects a historical case study on the implementation of CCS in the port of Rotterdam was combined with extensive literature research and expert interviews. Three factors that prevented the increase of the NRL of CCS in the port of Rotterdam were identified: public debate, economic aspects and regulatory processes. In order for the actors of the institutional network to manage these exogenous factors effectively it was suggested to formulate and align nonmarket strategies regarding CCS. Furthermore, the research showed that the NRL/TRL matrix could be improved on completeness and unambiguousness.

The Netherlands aims to accelerate the energy transition. Accordingly, ambitious targets have been set for the industrial sector. This will require additional investments in the Dutch industry which is expected to reduce the CO2 emissions at limited costs in comparison with other sectors. However, the ambition to reduce the emissions can create a risk of loss of activity and jobs if the industrial businesses prospects are not ensured. Power-to-heat technology provides an opportunity to the industry to reduce the emissions for heating processes. This technology can be implemented in hybrid configurations to ensure the electrification of heat. Hybrid configurations are characterised by their ability to switch between natural gas and electricity which could cost-effectively reduce the emissions consuming electricity at low prices. In this research, a techno-economic evaluation of hybrid boiler systems is performed to analyse the potential of this technology to cost-effectively reduce the CO2 emissions for steam generation in a production process, in 2030. To this end, the operation of hybrid boiler systems was simulated and assessed. The performance of hybrid configurations was compared to alternative options. Finally, the hybrid systems were analysed under different scenarios for 2030. The results for the case study presented, showed that hybrid configurations saved operation costs and reduced the direct CO2 emissions by almost 20%. Therefore, the hybrid boiler could cost-effectively reduce the emissions. However the potential benefits of hybrid boilers are subjected to variation of electricity, natural gas and CO2 prices.

Most countries have shown their concern towards global warming and made commitments to decrease carbon emissions. Energy usage will have to become more efficient and generated by an increasing amount of sustainable resources. Hard-to-abate industries will require incentives to decarbonize their processes. Research shows that consumer-facing companies (CFCs) are willing to and can incentivize upstream production to decarbonize processes. Literature research concludes that steel, ammonia, methanol and refineries are highly dependent on hydrogen to be decarbonized. Demand sectors of these heavy industries are analyzed to identify potential demand for hydrogen-based products, and whether their value proposition towards consumers increases using hydrogen-based products. Some case studies on CFCs using heavy industry’s products do confirm this. A table with scores per industry is provided to show the relative degree of downstream capability and willingness to decarbonize upstream production. The research shows that the steel sector will be the most applicable industry to be incentivized from a CFC’s perspective, followed by ammonia and to less extent methanol and refineries. CFC initiated decarbonization mechanisms are qualitatively sorted and discussed for applicability on hydrogen-based transition. The mechanisms holding the highest potential to initiate upstream decarbonization are discussed regarding applicability for the steel industry. Business model innovation, industry & sector level collaboration, performance standards and industry & market standards are considered to have the highest potential among CFC mechanisms to reduce risks in transitioning upstream industries.

The economic engineering group at the DCSC uses Newtonian and analytical mechanics to model economic systems but makes no use of thermodynamics. The introduction of thermodynamics to the economic engineering framework would increase the extent of analysis and interpretation of economic systems in economic engineering. In this thesis the foundations of the thermodynamics of economic engineering are developed in order to include thermodynamic modeling of economic systems in the field of economic engineering. After the development of the thermodynamics of economic engineering theory, the theory is applied to analyze economic growth, factor productivity, and the value of a business. An axiomatic approach is taken to derive economic analogs to thermodynamic concepts. The meaning of an axiomatic approach is that these economic-thermodynamic analogs are developed in a logical order, e.g., the economic analog to temperature is not introduced before developing the economic analog to the first law. Key analogs between economics and thermodynamics are established in this thesis that include but are not limited to two fundamental economic laws, work as an expenditure, heat as an expense, temperature as a price level, and entropy as a quantity referred to as human capital in the thesis. By deriving key analogs, the thesis establishes the foundational principles of thermodynamics within economic engineering. Utilizing the theory of the thermodynamics of economic engineering results in applications to economic growth. Empirical growth accounting is modeled by the fundamental thermodynamic relationship. A relationship between linear production functions and Cobb-Douglas type production functions is shown by analyzing the productivity of an economy. Furthermore, a method to evaluate the worth of a business is created by determining the business' total potential earnings. Additionally, the thesis shares a vision of how to include thermodynamics within a control engineering framework. A higher-dimensional energy-based approach to model dynamical systems offers a way forward to include thermodynamic energy and entropy within control formalisms. Such a framework would account for availability and heat buildup in controlled dynamical systems. One potential application is to account for the heat build up that occurs in integrated circuits.

In this thesis the potential of demand response among households in The Netherlands is studied. The methodology is based on the conceptual design of an Agent-Based Model for the adoption of domestic demand response by households. From this model the subsequent flexibility in the electricity system will be brought forward. A review of the current literature has made apparent that the total potential of the flexibility in households is not clear. Previous research has studied the potential in some appliances to perform demand response actions and this has led to some insight in appliance performance as flexibility providers. Moreover, top-down system studies have looked at households consumption and have derived flexibility potential through this method. However, a bottom-up analysis of household potential for demand response has not been performed; let alone for the Dutch electricity system. Moreover, the willingness of households to adopt domestic demand response has not been researched. This is an important factor in determining the total flexibility that can become available to the system. The analysis provided some key findings. Firstly, there are at least 7 types of highly prevalent appliances in Dutch households that are suitable for providing flexibility to the grid. High consumption and continuously operating appliances offer the greatest potential in terms of all-time flexibility, but other appliances can still be very useful for peak mitigation. Especially with the low investment costs for "unlocking" the flexibility in these devices over time, a large set of appliances can provide useful flexibility. Moreover, household analysis showed that most clusters of households already have high importance for energy efficient behaviour and the spread of the number of appliances in households is low. Finally, the policy analysis provided insight in the types of policy measures that can be encountered in the future. Regulatory change that will make it easier for aggregators and utilities to provide ancillary services with aggregated loads will benefit the system, but are difficult to incorporate in the conceptual design of the model. Providing more insight for consumers into their own consumption and capacity subscriptions are other measures that could motivate households in one way or another to perform domestic demand response. Moreover, some form of mandatory offerings of 'smart' appliances could make sure households have demand response ready appliances in their homes. By reviewing the technology, policy and consumer behavior, the research has analysed the state of development of domestic demand response. The Diffusion of Innovations theory together with the archetype identification shows which archetypes are more likely to adopt and which archetypes are more likely to be considered opinion leaders. The influence of different policy measures is seen both in households themselves and their willingness to adopt as with the technologies that will enable providing flexibility.

As a move away from the natural gas based heating, the Dutch government identified district heating networks as most economical alternative to the natural gas. However, the future plans for the district heating sector have faced challenge on the question of the design of heat market and management of factors such as ownership, network access, tariffs and pricing. This thesis draws learning from the existing networks of Electricity, Gas, Water and Wastewater for formulating the design space of the heat network.

Abstract The technical and geographical characteristics of fossil fuels have shaped interstate energy relations for decades. The ongoing energy transition leads to an increasing share of renewables in the electricity mix. Since technical and geographical characteristics of renewables differ significantly from those of fossil fuels, it is likely that renewables affect energy relations between countries in a different way. It is yet unknown how these deviating characteristics will exactly influence the international energy relations, and evidence from concrete cases is missing. This study therefore examines the geopolitical implications of wind power in the Danish electricity system. The aim is to assess how interstate energy relations shifted between 1990 and 2018, and whether these shifts can be attributed to the technical and geographical characteristics of wind power. A framework of analysis is constructed to outline the geopolitical implications in 1990 and 2018. Desk research and expert interviews are used to obtain the data. The research concludes that the implications of the transition have been rather positive for Denmark. While sometimes depending on its neighbours for electricity supply, Denmark is still able to safeguard energy security, generate revenues and gain global political influence by sharing knowledge. Further research should outline the implications for other types of renewable energy sources and focus on the geopolitical implications of wind power in other regions.

In a socio –technical system, such as the energy system, a network of actors is responsible for developing, monitoring and managing the technical system bounded by institutions on different levels. The network of actors is the social dimension, where the technical system is the technical dimension of the socio -technical system. The development of the technical dimension can already be assessed through the Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The development of the network of actors, or the social dimension; the dimension that mostly causes problems cannot be assessed at this time. It is, therefore, the aim of this thesis to create a numerical scale that indicates the development of the social dimension of a socio -technical system; the Network Readiness Level (NRL). The scale indicates the development at a low level of analysis; individual projects adding to the bigger socio -technical system. To draft the NRL -scale, the following research question should be answered: ‘What should a numerical indicator to assess the readiness of the social dimension of a socio -technical system look like? To answer the research question, a list of properties, facilitators and barriers of influence on a socio –technical system was drafted, based on literature. The list was validated by experts based on semi –structure interviews and a sorting exercise. The experts were originating from cases on renewable energy development of Tata Steel IJmuiden . A total of three cases on the development of a wind park, developing solar power at TSIJ, and developing a District Heating network were used. All cases were selected based on their socio -technical characteristics. The outcomes of the interviews served as an input for a 4-step result analysis that lead to the final outcome of this thesis: the NRL –indicator. The NRL -indicator is a methodology to assess the readiness of a network of actors based on a numerical scale. It serves to indicate the level of development, and addresses what causes the development to lag behind. The NRL -indicator exists of 16 criteria of a collaboration, and a scale of seven levels (NRL1 -NRL7). The methodology includes three important characteristics of a development: dynamic character, different criteria present at the same time, and the development process of the criteria. By combining these criteria, the NRL -indicator is capable of providing a complete overview of the factors of influence on a socio –technological development. The NRL –indicator presents something, a numerical scale to assess the readiness of the social side, which has never been presented before. This research on the NRL –indicator thus proposes a completely new methodology that could be valuable for managers, policy makers, and other actors in the network of actors of any socio -technical system. Future research is needed to validate the methodology, and prove its applicability. Not only in renewable energy development, but in multiple socio -technical systems, like: construction, pharma, transportation, communication, public -private partnerships, and innovation.

Currently, the inland shipping industry is not sufficiently incentivised to invest in sustainable technologies in order to reduce their emissions. The industry itself wants to be more sustainable, but there is insufficient financial room to invest in alternative technologies. Besides, public authorities try to achieve a reduction using command-and-control policy instruments. Therefore, this study aims to gain insights into the relationship between policy instruments and incentivising technical alternatives. In this study, emission-reducing strategies have been identified using a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model based on the fleet owned by the Port of Rotterdam. As a result, this study has identified two effective strategies – environmentally differentiated port dues and environmental fees. The effectiveness of the environmentally differentiated port dues can be allocated to the degree of pollution control. The implication of an environmental fee on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, has led to a reduction in either greenhouse gas and pollutant emission.

This research has compared three different market mechanisms in a quantitative way. The influences of these market mechanisms on the heating system were investigated for CO2 emissions, consumer price and producer surplus. In addition, the influences of investment decisions and price and consumption growth scenarios were tested. The research showed that the end-to-end market mechanism is the least uncertain in the future and is only influenced by consumption growth. In addition, the construction of a large source of residual heat can moderate this effect. The wholesale market is strongly influenced by price scenarios. This effect can be moderated by the construction of the pipeline through the Midden, which connects two different heating systems. Finally, there is the single buyer market. This is influenced by both scenario variables, while no investment decisions affect it. Further research must be done into the latter market mechanism. And the models need to be extended to more specific markets because this research has used archetypes. Keywords: District heating network, Market mechanism, Single-buyer,

Following the Paris Agreement, the national government of the Netherlands reached the Climate Agreement together with more than 100 organizations. As part of this agreement, the industry sector is faced with the ambitious goal of 59% CO2 reduction in 2030 with respect to 1990 levels. Since the naphtha cracking industry is one of the most emission-intensive industries worldwide, decarbonization of this industry can deliver a significant contribution to reaching the climate goals. Among other transformations, electrification is regarded as an important decarbonization strategy. However, electrification in the naphtha cracking industry currently faces several barriers. For an important part, these stem from fundamental uncertainties concerning the future markets, the availability of renewable electricity and the capacity of the electricity grid. Moreover, high investment costs combined with a lack of financial and fiscal incentives and low carbon prices make the business case for electrification currently unattractive. In addition, the high degree of systems integration onsite and the baseload nature of the cracking process make the implementation of electrification challenging. Government policy could play a pivotal role in resolving these barriers. The purpose of this research is therefore to explore policy options at a national level that enable an acceleration in the chemical industry’s electrification while being robust against uncertainty. For this purpose, the Robust Decision-Making (RDM) framework was applied. As part of this framework, a system dynamics (SD) model was built to describe the behavior of the socio-technical system of the naphtha cracking industry. This model was then subjected Exploratory Modelling & Analysis (EMA) to simulate the impact of various policy options on the electrification rate against a large number of plausible future scenarios. Moreover, a robust policy search was conducted using a multi-objective robust optimization algorithm.The analyses of the simulation results suggest that profound changes in current policy instruments are required to achieve a significant degree of electrification in the naphtha cracking industry with sufficient certainty. It is advised to increase government funding for electrification, implement a fiscal shift away from gas towards electricity and to increase the effective carbon levy imposed on the industry. However, though the analyses show that government policy has a significant impact on the development of electrification, its success appears conditional on external factors, most importantly, developments in the energy and carbon markets. In fact, the electricity price and the ETS carbon price turn out to be more influential on emission reduction than most policy interventions. The availability of renewable electricity is the single most influential factor affecting CO2 emissions and hence, is considered paramount in achieving emission reduction. Therefore, policy aimed at accelerating electrification should be accompanied by decisive government action regarding the development of renewable electricity sources.

Hydrogen is widely considered an essential energy carrier that has the potential to accelerate the energy transition. The Netherlands does not have the resources to fulfil the expected hydrogen demand by domestically produced hydrogen. By realising hydrogen import terminals, the Port of Rotterdam can maintain its dominating position as the (renewable) energy port in North-West Europe. This study, in which the Port of Rotterdam is used as a case study, focuses on the uncertainties hampering the realisation of hydrogen import terminals. While earlier studies have been conducted on hydrogen import, we identify two research gaps: 1) the necessity to optimise the scaling of hydrogen import terminals and 2) the inclusion of hydrogen use in multiple sectors. Through a literature review, three categories of uncertainty have been identified that are often present in hydrogen systems; economic, technical, and geopolitical uncertainties. The categories of uncertainty have been used as a guideline to identify uncertainty present in assessing the integrated hydrogen system in the Port of Rotterdam. A model that represents this system has been developed in Linny-R. Linny-R is a graphical specification language to solve Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problems. This model allowed us to adjust input parameters such as production capacities and prices, hydrogen demand, and infrastructural changes to study the identified uncertainties through sensitivity analyses and scenarios. The results of this research illustrate the need for hydrogen import to meet the projected hydrogen demand. However, hydrogen import is not cost-competitive compared to domestically produced hydrogen. This study highlights the potential to reduce costs in the production, conversion to the carrier, and shipping stage of the supply chain. Currently, Ammonia (NH3) is the cheapest hydrogen carrier followed by Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC), and Liquid hydrogen (LH2). Long-term contracts are required to manage the hydrogen import transactions to resolve economic uncertainty. Technical uncertainty relates to the scaling of hydrogen import terminals and the end-user sectors’ preferences for a specific hydrogen carrier. Based on the technical characteristics of the three hydrogen carriers, LH2 shows the highest potential to supply all end-user sectors. However, LOHC and NH3 also have advantages in specific areas. Moreover, the early stage of development in LH2-technology fuels the need for LOHC and NH3, leaving the debate on which hydrogen carrier is preferred open. Furthermore, the scaling of hydrogen import terminals is complicated by the presence of salt-caverns in the northern part of The Netherlands because they provide a cheap alternative for large-scale hydrogen storage. Geopolitical uncertainties related to the hydrogen import supply chain processes are highly dependent on the production capabilities in the export countries and the distance of those countries to the Port of Rotterdam. Additionally, other nearby located ports can also realise import terminals, attracting hydrogen import, diminishing the potential dominant position of the Port of Rotterdam. However, a first-mover position could manifest the Port of Rotterdam as a dominant player in the global hydrogen market. More generally, hydrogen import terminals could provide security against geopolitical forces as it safeguards the diversity of the Dutch energy mix. We identified several avenues for future research. First, researchers interested in expanding the model’s functionalities could focus on 1) modelling a variable renewable electricity price, 2) including salt-caverns and specific hydrogen export, 3) adjusting our model by allowing only filled vessels to arrive, 4) including the Willingness To Pay (WTP) of various end-user sectors, 5) applying a method that allows the investigation of numerous possible futures. A more general recommendation is to add a new model to analyse investments and support companies’ business cases by integrating hydrogen end-user sectors’ WTP. Finally, we especially encourage policymakers to explore and support the possibility to realise one or more hydrogen import terminals, even in case of a lacking business case, to improve the strategic position of the Port of Rotterdam with regards to economic and geopolitical advantages.

This research focusses on delivering a proposed procedure that determines interactions among multiple changes. The basis for this is obtained from literature and research papers that focus on the cumulative impacts of multiple project changes. The construction industry is currently suffering from a productivity problem, resulting from the cumulative impacts of multiple changes. Scientific theories suggest that interaction among changes is an essential factor for the cumulative impacts of changes. A brief study of the literature results in the development of a procedure to determine and show interactions among multiple changes. The procedure is applied in three real projects undertaken by ENGIE services West Industry, Rotterdam, to test its application. The results from the three projects show interactions among their significant changes, with limitations on obtaining the impacts from the points of interactions. An understanding is obtained from this, which suggest that at points of interactions, there is an additional resource demand by the changes, which may contribute towards the cumulative impact of changes. Thereby, this research provides a framework to construction companies that aids in determining and showing points of interactions among multiple changes while providing a reasonable understanding regarding the cumulative impacts of multiple changes.

By signing the Paris Climate Agreement, The Netherlands has committed itself to curtail its CO2- emissions in order to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Pivotal to achieve these targets is the phase-out of CO2-intensive electricity generation technologies and investments in renewables. Current investments aiming to decarbonise the electricity system are predominantly allocated to solar PV and off- and onshore wind energy. However, this trajectory might change as the development of Dynamic Tidal power (DTP) might soon enable The Netherlands to harvest the North Sea’s currently unutilised tidal currents to generate clean electricity. DTP uses a 30-70 kilometre long dam perpendicular to the coast to capture the North Sea’s tidal currents. The alternating currents that proceed parallel to the coast create a hydraulic head over the dam, which turbines in the dam convert into electricity. However, the variable availability of solar irradiation, wind, and tidal currents makes it increasingly complex and costly to match electricity supply and demand as their shares in the electricity mix increase. To ensure electricity security, freely dispatchable energy generators (e.g. natural gas, biomass or coal turbines) are deployed to cover the electricity load that could not be met by the variable renewable energy (VRE) generators. However, due to the fuel used to generate electricity, dispatchable energy sources tend to emit CO2 and bear higher marginal energy generation costs than VRES. To address this problem, the portfolio shares of solar PV, offshore wind, onshore wind and DTP that minimise the need for dispatchable backup capacity and the energy generation costs were computed in this study. Due to its novelty, special attention was paid to the effect of DTP on a VRE system’s ability to efficiently match supply and demand. In order to achieve these objectives, a novel application of the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was used. The MPT originates from the stock market but is often used to comprise VRE portfolios that maximise the electricity output. However, as the aim was to minimise the residual load, demand-variability was introduced into the MPT. Existing literature had not covered this topic. Hence, by assessing to what extent including demand-variability in the MPT affects the selection of efficient VRE portfolios, this study filled a gap in the literature and serves as a starting point for future research into the application of the MPT. In total, three different electricity demand scenarios were optimised; the contemporary load profile (1), increased peak loads due to an extreme penetration of electric vehicles (EV) and electric heat pumps (HP) (2), and a flat load profile due to an extreme penetration of demand-responsive measures (3). The most efficient portfolio shares for each demand scenario were found by computing how 35GW should be distributed among solar PV, offshore wind, onshore wind and DTP in order to minimise the need for backup capacity and energy generation costs. The results of this study indicate that regardless of the demand profile, The Netherlands’ VRE system would be most cost-efficient in meeting demand when comprised of approximately 75% DTP and 25% offshore wind. However, only under the condition that the DTP-dams are geographically dispersed. Geographically dispersed DTP-dams, for example, located in Zeeland (south of The Netherlands) and off the coast of Texel (north of The Netherlands), cancels out the volatility in the electricity output caused by high and low tide. This reduces a VRE system’s volatility in electricity output and stabilises the electricity output from the dispatchable backup system, which minimises the system’s electricity generation costs. However, in terms of the amount of backup capacity required, it was found that a system comprised entirely of DTP with an integrated battery storage system would be even more efficient. The battery storage system eliminates all variability in the electricity output from DTP, which minimises the need for dispatchable backup capacity. However, as battery storage costs are significant (approx. 100,000 €/MWh), it is unlikely that a DTP-dam with a storage system large enough to flatten its electricity output is economically viable under the current market circumstances. This might change when DTP is combined with other storage systems or if battery storage costs reduce due to learning-effect, economies of scale or technical innovations. As DTP is still in its initial development phase, it is not certain DTP will successfully penetrate the power generation market. If DTP fails to enter the market, the current VRE system (61% solar PV, 8% offshore wind and 31% onshore wind) is fairly cost-efficient. However, if the aim is to reduce the amount of dispatchable backup capacity required to ensure energy security, future investments should be allocated to offshore wind. The overarching conclusion is that there is no unequivocal VRE portfolio that is most efficient to meet demand as it depends on the perspective taken (required backup capacity versus electricity generation costs). However, this study shows that the current VRE system benefits from the inclusion of DTP, both in terms of the required amount of backup capacity and the system’s energy generation costs. Only if DTP is combined with a large battery storage system to flatten its electricity output do the system’s energy generation costs surpass the costs of the current VRE system. In regards to the effect of including demand-variability in the MPT, it was found that demand variability has a limited effect on the selection of efficient VRE portfolio shares. Only in a scenario (2) with increased peak loads did the share of offshore wind slightly increase. This is due to the fact that the peaks in electricity supply from offshore wind coincide with the peaks in demand from electric HP (winter).

How well spent is public money concerning sustainability goals? How effective and efficient are these policies? Even though it is widely acknowledged that actions against climate change are urgently needed in the near future, policy makers little insight in how potential policies can be designed most effectively. To evaluate the impacts of sustainability policies on industry, such as carbon taxes and hydrogen subsidies, policies should be included within industrial cluster models. This policy modelling approach leads to effective and efficient use of public finance and time. This research foresees in this demand by applying a module thinking strategy. This allows for the creation of plug-and-play policy modules that can be used in future research to determine the most effective or efficient policy to achieve sustainable industrial clusters. To this end, scope variables are identified that provide buttons to design policies. Future research should focus on validating these scope variables to a further extend and potentially enable generalisation of the policy modules. The authors choice to use linear optimization resulted in only being able to evaluate generation based policies (like feed-in tariffs). Designing also investment based policies (like lump-sum subsidies) requires further attention.

Transport sector CO2 emissions are on the rise and responsible for nearly 30% of the EU’s total CO2 emissions (European Parliament,2019). An attractive way to reduce the CO2 emissions by transport is by changing the fuel used. Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in a clean, secure and affordable energy future (IEA). However, a clean, widespread use of hydrogen in global energy transitions faces several challenges. Currently, the global hydrogen production is approximately 7.2 EJ per year, 96% of which comes from fossil fuels. To harness the potential of hydrogen on the way to a clean energy future requires the capture of CO2 from hydrogen production from fossil fuels and greater supplies of hydrogen from renewable energy sources. This study focuses on assessing the techno-economic potential of the membrane technology coupled with carbon capture technology, to produce decentralized bio-hydrogen in realizing a low carbon society in The Netherlands. A literature survey was performed to determine the performance of the membrane reactor & cryogenic capture technologies and expected technological advancements. With the information obtained,a basic process of membrane reforming with carbon capture was modeled in Aspen Plus. Different configurations of the basic process were developed. In the first stage, thermodynamic key performance indicators were used to compare the performance of the different configurations developed. Secondly, one promising configuration was chosen and the levelized cost of hydrogen was used to optimize the process parameters like sweep ratio, permeate pressure, feed pressure etc. Finally, the optimum configuration was used to determine its economic and CO2 emissions potential compared to the conventional steam methane reforming process. Exergy analysis for the optimum configuration was also performed.The optimum levelized cost of hydrogen of the decentralized hydrogen production system developed in this work is calculated to be 4.19 €/kg H2. The levelized cost of hydrogen for the equivalent centralized steam methane reforming system is 5.98 €/kg H2. Therefore, the decentralized system developed is more attractive than the centralized system. The higher costs of the centralized system are due to the hydrogen transportation costs. Furthermore, the carbon capture unit costs 0.68  €/kg H2 and an additional dehydration unit at 0.4 €/kg H2 is required to meet the PEM fuel-cell hydrogen specifications. The efficiency and carbon capture rate of the developed configuration is 66.07% and 72.13% respectively,higher than the conventional process. The exergy efficiency of the developed process is 65.1%. The CO2 emissions for the decentralized system across the value chain are calculated to be 1.4 kg CO2/kg H2. Future scenarios with renewable energy in the electricity mix result in negative CO2 emissions, making the system attractive to limit the climate change and also benefit financially from the EU-ETS. The CO2 emissions of the centralized system are 5.45 kg CO2/kg H2 with post-combustion carbon capture and 10.14 kg CO2/kg H2 with state-of-the-art reforming. With a carbon tax to be implemented soon,the costs of this system will rise making the decentralized system even more attractive. However, uncertainties in the development of an integrated hydrogen transport infrastructure, fuel-grade hydrogen demand, technological advancements in membrane reactors etc. may affect the comparative attractiveness of the systems.

Risk management is undoubtedly a precious component of the overall project management field. It assists in identifying, assessing and mitigating the uncertainties that are present in a project. These uncertainties affect important measures of a project, of which cost and schedule are the most prominent, and consequently put project success under pressure. Risk analysis, especially in its quantitative form, is a core process of risk management that provides valuable insights regarding these uncertainties. Numerous different procedures for quantitative risk analysis exist, but generally, they can be classified in two types based on the way they treat the cost and schedule components of a project. In the Separated Approach two risk analyses are performed, one for schedule and one for cost, which are independent of each other. In the Integrated Approach one risk analysis is performed, where schedule and cost components are simultaneously analyzed, and are no longer independent of each other. The advantages and disadvantages for each approach are well described in literature. However, there is little empirical evidence of the performance of different approaches when they are applied on real projects. This research tries to fill this gap by comparing the outcomes of different approaches when they are implemented on a real project, against the actual outcomes of the project to get an indication of their relative performance. Particularly, the Proposed Separate Approach, the Proposed Integrated Approach and the Company’s Separated Approach are applied on a completed project and their outcomes regarding cost and schedule contingency are compared to each other and to the actual project outcomes. Based on this comparison, a conclusion is drawn, and an answer is given on which approach is more accurate. Regarding cost contingency estimate, the Proposed Integrated Approach was the more accurate, while for schedule contingency estimate, the Company’s Separated Approach was the most accurate. A similar research should be conducted on a large number of projects to be able to generalize this conclusion though.

The Port of Rotterdam is developing a hydrogen and CO2 pipeline bundle for industry in NRW. By applying a Multi-Criteria Analysis to this case, a model is created that evaluates this pipeline bundle against the criteria of the industry in North Rhine-Westphalia. The system analysis is used as the basis for the model, industry objectives are used as key performance indicators, and external factors affecting the system are included as parameters. Experiments with the model have shown that in addition to technical and economic aspects, policy and social consensus must be closely monitored for the future succes of the pipeline bundle.