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C.J. van Calcar

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Journal article (2026) - Caroline J. van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Wouter van der Wal
The bedrock deformation in response to a melting ice sheet provides negative feedback on ice mass loss. When modelling the future behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the impact of bed deformation on ice dynamics varies but can reduce projections of future sea-level rise by up to 40 % in comparison with scenarios that assume a rigid Earth. The rate of the solid Earth response is mainly dependent on the viscosity of the Earth's mantle, which varies laterally and radially with several orders of magnitude across Antarctica. Because modelling the response for a varying viscosity is computationally expensive and has only recently been shown to be necessary over centennial time scales, sea-level projection ensembles often exclude the Earth's response or apply a globally constant relaxation time or viscosity. We use a coupled model to investigate the accuracy of various approaches to modelling the bedrock deformation to ice load change. Specifically, we compare the sea-level projections from an ice-sheet model coupled to (i) an elastic lithosphere, relaxed asthenosphere (ELRA) model, with either uniform and laterally varying relaxation times, (ii) a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model with a radially varying Earth structure (1D GIA model), and (iii) a GIA model with laterally varying earth structures (3D GIA model). Furthermore, using the 3D GIA model we determine a relation between relaxation time and viscosity which can be used in ELRA and 1D models. We conduct 500-year projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using two different climate models and two emissions scenarios: the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5 and the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Using a rigid Earth model, this results in ∼3–7.5 m of barystatic sea-level rise with significant retreat in various basins due to marine ice sheet instability. The results show that using a uniform relaxation time of 300 years in an ELRA model leads to a total sea-level rise that deviates less than 40 cm (6 %) from the average of the 3D GIA models in 2500. This difference in the projected sea-level rise can be further reduced to 20 cm (4 %) by using an upper mantle viscosity of 1019 Pa s in the 1D GIA model, and to 10 cm (2 %) in 2500 by using a laterally varying relaxation time map in an ELRA model. Our results show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise can be approximated sufficiently accurate using ELRA or a 1D GIA model when the recommended parameters derived from the full 3D GIA model are used. ...
Journal article (2025) - C.J. van Calcar, J. Bernales, C.J. Berends, W. van der Wal, R.S.W. van de Wal
The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to barystatic sea-level rise could be as high as eight metres around 2300 but remains deeply uncertain. Ice sheet retreat causes bedrock uplift, which can exert a stabilising effect on the grounding line. Yet, sea-level projections exclude bedrock adjustment, use simplified Earth structures or omit the uncertainty in climate response and Earth structure. We show that the grounding line retreat is delayed by 50 to 130 years and the barystatic sea-level contribution reduced by 9–23% when the heterogeneity of the solid Earth is included in a coupled ice – bedrock model under different emission scenarios till 2500. The effect of the solid Earth feedback in ice sheet projections can be twice as large as the uncertainty due to differences between climate models. We emphasise that realistic Earth structures should be considered when projecting the Antarctic contribution to barystatic sea-level rise on centennial time scales. ...
Journal article (2023) - Wouter van der Wal, Valentina Barletta, Grace Nield, Caroline van Calcar
This chapter reviews glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and post-seismic deformation in Antarctica. It discusses numerical models and their inputs, and observations and inferences that have been made from them. Both processes are controlled by mantle viscosity but their forcings are different. Ongoing GIA induced by the loss of ice since the last glacial maximum (LGM) could have amounted to 5–15 m of global sea-level rise. However, mantle viscosity is so low in parts of West Antarctica (c. 1018 Pa s) that changes in ice thickness over the last centuries and decades have controlled the current uplift rates there. The uplift due to GIA has promoted ice-sheet stability since the LGM, and in West Antarctica GIA is a significant negative feedback on the current decline of the ice sheet. Post-seismic deformation following the 1998 earthquake near the Balleny Islands south of New Zealand has been detected in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data and compared to model outputs. The best-fitting viscosity for this area is c. 1019 Pa s, similar to GIA-based estimates for the Antarctic Peninsula. Future work should focus on unifying descriptions of viscosity across geodynamic models, and integrating information from seismic, gravity, experimental and geological data. ...
Journal article (2023) - C.J. van Calcar, Roderik S W van de Wal, B. Blank, Bas de Boer, W. van der Wal
Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) has a stabilizing effect on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet by reducing the grounding line migration following ice melt. The timescale and strength of this feedback depends on the spatially varying viscosity of the Earth's mantle. Most studies assume a relatively long and laterally homogenous response time of the bedrock. However, the mantle viscosity is spatially variable, with a high mantle viscosity beneath East Antarctica and a low mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica. For this study, we have developed a new method to couple a 3D GIA model and an ice sheet model to study the interaction between the solid Earth and the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. With this method, the ice sheet model and GIA model exchange ice thickness and bedrock elevation during a fully coupled transient experiment. The feedback effect is taken into account with a high temporal resolution, where the coupling time steps between the ice sheet and GIA model are 5000 years over the glaciation phase and vary between 500 and 1000 years over the deglaciation phase of the last glacial cycle. During each coupling time step, the bedrock elevation is adjusted at every ice sheet model time step, and the deformation is computed for a linearly changing ice load. We applied the method using the ice sheet model ANICE and a 3D GIA finite element model. We used results from a regional seismic model for Antarctica embedded in the global seismic model SMEAN2 to determine the patterns in the mantle viscosity. The results of simulations over the last glacial cycle show that differences in mantle viscosity of an order of magnitude can lead to differences in the grounding line position up to 700gkm and to differences in ice thickness of the order of 2gkm for the present day near the Ross Embayment. These results underline and quantify the importance of including local GIA feedback effects in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle. ...

From Global Perspectives to Local Services

Journal article (2022) - Gaël Durand, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Goneri Le Cozannet, Tamsin L. Edwards, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ben Marzeion, Ruth Mottram, Caroline J. van Calcar, More Authors...
Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ∼65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks. ...
Abstract (2021) - C.J. van Calcar, Bas de Boer, B. Blank, Roderik S W van de Wal, W. van der Wal
The Earth’s surface and interior deform due to a changing load of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last glacial cycle, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). This deformation changes the surface height of the ice sheet and indirectly the groundling line position. These changes in surface height and grounding line position influence the evolution of the AIS and consequently, again the load on the Earth’s surface. As a result, GIA operates as a negative feedback loop and could stabilize the evolution of the AIS. This feedback maybe particularly relevant for relatively low viscosities of the mantle in West Antarctica which lead to a relatively fast response time of the bedrock due to changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet loading. Most studies capture this process by ignoring lateral variations in the viscosity of the mantle and the stabilizing GIA feedback loop. Here we present a new method to couple an ice sheet model to a GIA model at a variable timestep in the order of a thousand years. Several experiments have been done using different radial and lateral varying rheologies for simulations of the last glacial cycle. It is shown that the effect of including lateral variations and accounting for the stabilizing GIA feedback is up to 80 kilometers for the grounding line position and 400 meters for the ice thickness. The largest differences are observed close to the grounding line of the Ronne ice shelf and at several locations in East Antarctica. The total ice volume of the AIS increases by 0.5 percent over 5000 years when including the 3D GIA feedback loops in the coupled model. These results quantify the local importance of including GIA feedback effects in ice dynamic models when simulating the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution over the full glacial cycle. ...
Journal article (2020) - Paul Vriend, Caroline van Calcar, Merel Kooi, Harm Landman, Remco Pikaar, Tim van Emmerik
Most marine litter pollution is assumed to originate from land-based sources, entering the marine environment through rivers. To better understand and quantify the risk that plastic pollution poses on aquatic ecosystems, and to develop effective prevention and mitigation methods, a better understanding of riverine plastic transport is needed. To achieve this, quantification of riverine plastic transport is crucial. Here, we demonstrate how established methods can be combined to provide a rapid and cost-effective characterization and quantification of floating macroplastic transport in the River Rhine. We combine visual observations with passive sampling to arrive at a first-order estimate of macroplastic transport, both in number (10–75 items per hour) and mass per unit of time (1.3–9.7 kg per day). Additionally, our assessment gives insight in the most abundant macroplastic polymer types the downstream reach of the River Rhine. Furthermore, we explore the spatial and temporal variation of plastic transport within the river, and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of current sampling methods. Finally, we present an outlook for future monitoring of major rivers, including several suggestions on how to expand the rapid assessment presented in this paper. ...
Abstract (2020) - W. van der Wal, C.J. van Calcar, Bas de Boer, B. Blank
Over glacial-interglacial cycles, the evolution of an ice sheet is influenced by Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) via two negative feedback loops. Firstly, vertical bedrock deformation due to a changing ice load alters ice-sheet surface elevation. For example, an increasing ice load leads to a lower bedrock elevation that lowers ice-sheet surface elevation. This will increase surface melting of the ice sheet, following an increase of atmospheric temperature at lower elevations. Secondly, bedrock deformation will change the height of the grounding line of the ice sheet. For example, a lowering bedrock height following ice-sheet advance increases the melt due to ocean water that in turn leads to a retreat of the grounding line and a slow-down of ice-sheet advance. GIA is mainly determined by the viscosity of the interior of the solid Earth which is radially and laterally varying. Underneath the Antarctic ice sheet, there are relatively low viscosities in West Antarctica and higher viscosities in East Antarctica, in turn affecting the response time of the above mentioned feedbacks. However, most ice-dynamical models do not consider the lateral variations of the viscosity in the GIA feedback loops when simulating the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet. The method developed by Gomez et al. (2018) includes the feedback between GIA and ice-sheet evolution and alternates between simulations of the two models where each simulation covers the full time period. We presents a different method to couple ANICE, a 3-D ice-sheet model, to a 3-D GIA finite element model. In this method the model computations alternates between the icesheet and GIA model until convergence of the result occurs at each timestep. We simulate the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet from 120 000 years ago to the present. The results of the coupled simulation will be discussed and compared to results of the uncoupled ice-sheet model (using an ELRA GIA model) and the method developed by Gomez et al. (2018). ...
Journal article (2018) - C.J. van Calcar, Daniel Scholten
The discovery of natural gas in Slochteren in 1959 kick started a major transition in the Dutch energy sector. The move from coal mined in Limburg to natural gas extraction in Groningen had a huge impact on both provinces in particular and the Dutch energy sector in general. After the last of the twelve coal mines in Limburg was shut in 1969, half of the workforce in Limburg was left unemployed, considered unfit, or in early retirement (NOS 2014). Political leverage of Limburg on the overall energy policy also took a hit, considering coal-fired power plants located in other provinces were no longer dependent on coal from Limburg. In Groningen, natural gas created space for thousands of jobs and allowed the region to establish itself as an energy hub, economically, politically, and academically. Gas export revenues also became a welcome addition to the national treasury. ...