The Power of Trust
How patterns of trust in flood information influence the intention to take flood adaptation measures
E.M. Arts (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Tatiana Filatova – Mentor (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
N.Y. Aydin – Mentor (TU Delft - System Engineering)
Thorid Wagenblast – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
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Abstract
Trust is key to the success of climate adaptation strategies. However, the level of trust varies between different information sources. Without trust in the source, information from a source or policy could be disregarded.
As the intensity of climate change is increasing, flood adaptation measures are not keeping up with rising flood risks. This study therefore analyses the influence of trust in information on floods and flood adaptation on different types of flood adaptation strategies. Based on a UK case study using survey data from the SCALAR-team within the European Research Council project, a descriptive analysis, a binary logistic regression and a clustering analysis have been performed to answer the research gap.
Results showed that rural areas tend to trust information sources less than urban areas, except when the information originates from family and friends. However, trust in information sources is not always associated with the intent to take flood adaptation measures. Sources such as family and friends, social media and the prime minister are associated with an increase in certain flood adaptation measures, whereas trust in a government representative is associated with a decrease in the intent to take certain flood adaptation measures. Moreover, the clustering analysis identified five distinct groups of respondents, showing the importance of area-specific policies as local trust characteristics vary.
It is advised to look into longitudinal studies using the UK survey data to further establish the relationship between trust and flood adaptation strategies. The results of this study are not generalisable, but the methods are transferable for future research. Acknowledging the power of trust is fundamental for designing successful flood adaptation policies.