Levee system reliability and performance observations
K. Roscoe (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
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Abstract
Flood risk analysis is
necessary to make smart, informed decisions about which risk reduction measures
deserve priority. When levee systems play a key role in flood protection, these
decisions often translate to which levee improvements should be carried out
first. In flood risk analysis, the probability that a levee system fails is a
critical component, but one that is wrought with uncertainty. Much research has
focused on how to calculate the probability of system failure. However, for
levees, what is typically seen in practice is an over-simplification of the
system to make calculating the system failure probability easier.