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African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Journal Article (2022)
Author(s)

Michalis Vousdoukas (European Commission Joint Research Centre)

Joanne Clarke (University of East Anglia)

R.W.M.R.J.B. Ranasinghe (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering, Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, University of Twente)

Lena Reimann (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Nadia Khalaf (University of Exeter)

M.T. Duong (Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, University of Twente, TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)

Birgitt Ouweneel (University of Cape Town)

Salma Sabour (University of Southampton)

Carley E. Iles (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), Université de Versailles St-Quentin)

More authors

Research Group
Coastal Engineering
Copyright
© 2022 Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Joanne Clarke, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lena Reimann, Nadia Khalaf, M.T. Duong, Birgitt Ouweneel, Salma Sabour, Carley E. Iles, More Authors
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
More Info
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Publication Year
2022
Language
English
Copyright
© 2022 Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Joanne Clarke, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lena Reimann, Nadia Khalaf, M.T. Duong, Birgitt Ouweneel, Salma Sabour, Carley E. Iles, More Authors
Research Group
Coastal Engineering
Issue number
3
Volume number
12
Pages (from-to)
256-262
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Abstract

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.