The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Probabilistic flood forecasting requires flood models that are simple and fast. Many of the modelling applications in the literature tend to be complex and slow, making them unsuitable for probabilistic applications which require thousands of individual simulations. This article focusses on the development of such a modelling approach to support probabilistic assessment of flood hazards, while accounting for forcing and system uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of using the open-source SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), focussing on Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoffsimulation model which is generally used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoffquantity and quality and its application for probabilistic riverflow modelling is atypical. In this study, a detailed SWMM model of the entire Mekong Delta was built based on an existing ISIS model containing 575 nodes and 592 links of the same study area. The detailed SWMM model was then systematically reduced by strategically removing nodes and links to eventually arrive at a level of detail that provides sufficiently accurate predictions of water levels for Can Tho for the purpose of simulating urban flooding, which is the target diagnostic of this study. After a comprehensive assessment (based on trials with the varying levels of complexity), a much reduced SWMM model comprising 37 nodes and 40 links was determined to be able to provide a sufficiently accurate result while being fast enough to support probabilistic future flood forecasting and, further, to support flood risk reduction management.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Sand nourishments are presently widely applied to maintain or enhance coastal safety and beach width. Over the last decades, global sand nourishment volumes have increased greatly, and the demand for nourishments is anticipated to increase further in coming decades due to sea level rise. With the increase in nourishment size and the request for more complex nourishment shapes, an adequate prediction of the morphodynamic evolution is of major importance. Yet, neither the skill of current state-of-the-art models for such predictions nor the primary drivers that control the evolution are known. This article presents the results of a detailed numerical modelling study undertaken to examine the model skill and the processes governing the initial morphological response of the Sand Engine and the adjacent coastline. The process-based model Delft3D is used to hindcast the first year after completion of the mega-nourishment. The model reproduces measured water levels, velocities and nearshore waves well. The prediction of the morphological evolution is consistent with the measured evolution during the study period, with Brier Skill Scores in the ‘Excellent’ range. The model results clearly indicate that the sand eroded from the main peninsular section of the Sand Engine is deposited along adjacent north and south coastlines, accreting up to 6 km of coastline within just one year. Analysis of model results further show that the erosional behaviour of the Sand Engine is linearly dependent on the cumulative wave energy of individual high energy wave events, with the duration of a storm event being more dominant than the maximum wave height occurring during the storm. The integrated erosion volume due to the 12 events with the highest cumulative wave energy density accounts for about 60% of the total eroded volume of the peninsula, indicating that the less energetic wave events, with a higher probability of occurrence, are also important for the initial response of the Sand Engine. A structured model experiment using the verified Delft3D model indicates that wave forcing dominates the initial morphological response of the Sand Engine, accounting for approximately 75% of the total erosion volume in the first year. The vertical tide is the second most important factor accounting for nearly 17% of the total erosion volume, with surge, wind and horizontal tide playing only a minor role.

Low-frequency (infragravity) wave dynamics on a fringing coral reef were investigated using the numerical model XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009). First, the skill of the model was evaluated in one- and two-dimensions based on its predictions of short waves (0.04-0.2. Hz), infragravity waves (0.004-0.04. Hz) and water level measurements (tidal and wave setup) obtained during a 2009 field study at Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia. The model calibration was sensitive to friction coefficients for short waves and current/infragravity bed friction, which were assumed independent in this model study. Although the one-dimensional cross-shore model captured the gradients in the dominant hydrodynamic processes at the site, a high current/IG bed friction coefficient was required. This resulted in an overestimation and a phase lag between the observed and predicted wave setup signal. In the two-dimensional model, a lower (more realistic) current/infragravity wave friction coefficient was required to achieve optimum performance due to the presence of significant reef and lagoon mean flows in the model, which led to reduced setup across the reef. The infragravity waves were found to propagate from the surf zone across the reef in a dominantly cross-shore direction towards the shore, but with substantial frictional damping. The infragravity waves were strongly modulated also over the reef by tidal depth variations, primarily due to the variability in frictional dissipation rates when the total water depth over the reef varied. Two mean wave-driven circulation cells were observed in the study area, with cross-shore flow becoming more alongshore-dominated before exiting the system via the two channels in the reef. The results reveal that short waves dominated bottom stresses on the forereef and near the reef crest; however, inside the lagoon, infragravity waves become increasingly dominant, accounting up to 50% of the combined bottom stresses.

Probabilistic estimates for coastal storm erosion volumes are increasingly being sought by contemporary risk based coastal zone management frameworks. Such estimates can be obtained via probabilistic models that incorporate a structural function element which calculates storm erosion (i.e. storm erosion model). Intuitively, the more sophisticated the storm erosion model embedded in the probabilistic model, the more accurate and robust the probabilistic storm erosion volumes should be, albeit at significant additional computational cost. This study assesses the relative performance of three storm erosion models with varying levels of complexity when embedded within Callaghan et al.'s (2008a) probabilistic framework for estimating storm erosion. The storm models tested are: the analytical Kriebel and Dean (1993) model, the more complex semi-empirical SBeach model and the highly complex and process-based XBeach model.The probabilistic model is applied at data rich Narrabeen beach, Australia. Kriebel and Dean (1993) and SBeach are used 'on-line' in the probabilistic simulations, while XBeach is used with an innovative off-line tabulation approach to facilitate reasonable computational times. SBeach is calibrated for a mid-range erosion event while XBeach is validated for the same single erosion event as well as for all measured storm erosion volumes during the 30. year study period. The Kriebel and Dean (1993) model is used with recommended parameter settings and therefore does not require calibration.When both SBeach and XBeach are calibrated against the single erosion event, SBeach provides the most accurate and robust probabilistic estimates of storm erosion. However, when XBeach is calibrated using the entire erosion volume data series, the results improve significantly raising the accuracy and robustness of the probabilistic estimates of storm erosion volumes obtained with XBeach to be on par with those obtained with SBeach. However, only XBeach predicts storm erosion volumes with the physically more plausible behaviour of a downward concave tail shape when plotted as cross-shore beach-erosion volume on a vertical linear axis against return period on a horizontal logarithmic axis.The simulation time (on a standard single processor) when using the simple Kriebel and Dean (1993) model is about 1. day, whereas for SBeach (on-line) and XBeach (tabulation), the simulation time is about 1000. h. However, the physically more plausible and the more accurate and robust results that can be obtained with SBeach or XBeach justifies the additional computational cost.

Low-frequency (infragravity) wave dynamics on a fringing coral reef were investigated using the numerical model XBeach (Roelvink et al, 2009). First, the skill of the one-dimensional model was evaluated based on its predictions of short waves (0.04-0.2 Hz), infragravity waves (0.004-0.04 Hz) and water level measurements (tidal elevation and wave setup) obtained during a 2009 field study at Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia. The model calibration was sensitive to friction coefficients for short waves and current / infragravity bed friction, which were assumed independent in this model study. The infragravity waves were found to be generated primarily in the surf zone through the breakpoint generation mechanism rather than through offshore forcing. The infragravity waves were also strongly modulated over the reef by tidal depth variations, primarily due to the variability in frictional dissipation rates when the total water depth over the reef varied. The results revealed that short waves dominated bottom stresses on the forereef and near the reef crest; however, inside the lagoon, infragravity waves become increasingly dominant, accounting up to 50% of the combined bottom stresses.

The coastal system consists of a sub-aqueous and a sub-aerial zone which can be separated by a border. At this border sediment exchange takes place from one zone to the other. This paper hypothesizes that conditions and therefore sediment exchange at this border are dependent on active profile characteristics. To analyze morphological developments due to combined marine and aeolian processes data acquired at a measurement site located along the southwest Holland coast is exploited. Based on the monthly morphological profile measurements the border between the marine and aeolian zone is determined. It is found that during accretive conditions the vertical location of this border, and with that the conditions near the border, is dependent not on the foreshore slope of the surf/swash zone as expected but on the slope of the entire active profile.

The well-known empirical relationship between the equilibrium cross-sectional area of tidal inlet entrances (A) and the tidal prism (P), first developed by O'Brien (1931), has been extensively reviewed. Our theoretical investigations indicate that a unique A-P relationship should only be expected for clusters of inlets that are phenomenological similar (i.e. fairly similar hydrodynamic and morphological conditions), and that the exponent q in the A-P relation should be larger than 1. However, relevant published data available to date do not clearly support this theoretical finding. A re-analysis of the available data sets by Stive et al. (2009) indicated that they may not be sufficiently reliable to verify our theoretical finding with regard to q>1 due to the violation of the condition of phenomenological similarity, and possibly also due to violating the initial definitions given by O'Brien (1931) in estimating the tidal prism. The resolution of this issue is important because slightly different values of q result in significantly variable values for the equilibrium cross-sectional area of the tidal entrance. This may have significant implications in determining the true stable equilibrium entrance cross-sectional area. Here we present a re-analysis of the available data with a focus on determining the phenomenological dependencies of the A-P relationship. The available A-P data from the US Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf coasts (Jarrett, 1976 and Powell, 2003) have been re-scrutinized and categorized following the above mentioned phenomenological similarity criteria, viz. similar tidal range, similar sediment size, similar littoral transport and similar hydraulic radius. All together, some 20 different categories were considered and A-P relationships were obtained for each category. Generally, high correlations were found between the stable inlet predicted by each A-P relationship and the corresponding data. However, only in a limited number of categories were they significantly better than the correlations for the complete datasets. Finally, we point out that only in a number of categories the q value associated with the A-P relationship exceeded unity as suggested by the theoretical derivations. In the majority of categories the q value associated with the A-P relationship does not exceed unity. This is truly disappointing, and we have no physical explanation for this and consider this issue unresolved.