Probabilistic flood forecasting requires flood models that are simple and fast. Many of the modelling applications in the literature tend to be complex and slow, making them unsuitable for probabilistic applications which require thousands of individual simulations. This article focusses on the development of such a modelling approach to support probabilistic assessment of flood hazards, while accounting for forcing and system uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of using the open-source SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), focussing on Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoffsimulation model which is generally used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoffquantity and quality and its application for probabilistic riverflow modelling is atypical. In this study, a detailed SWMM model of the entire Mekong Delta was built based on an existing ISIS model containing 575 nodes and 592 links of the same study area. The detailed SWMM model was then systematically reduced by strategically removing nodes and links to eventually arrive at a level of detail that provides sufficiently accurate predictions of water levels for Can Tho for the purpose of simulating urban flooding, which is the target diagnostic of this study. After a comprehensive assessment (based on trials with the varying levels of complexity), a much reduced SWMM model comprising 37 nodes and 40 links was determined to be able to provide a sufficiently accurate result while being fast enough to support probabilistic future flood forecasting and, further, to support flood risk reduction management.@en

Risk-informed flood risk management requires a comprehensive and quantitative risk assessment, which often demands multiple (thousands of) river and flood model simulations. Performing such a large number of model simulations is a challenge, especially for large, complex river systems (e.g., Mekong) due to the associated computational and resource demands. This article presents an efficient probabilistic modeling approach that combines a simplified 1D hydrodynamic model for the entire Mekong Delta with a detailed 1D/2D coupled model and demonstrates its application at Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. Probabilistic flood-hazard maps, ranging from 0.5 to 100 year return period events, are obtained for the urban center of Can Tho city under different future scenarios taking into account the impact of climate change forcing (river flow, sea-level rise, storm surge) and land subsidence. Results obtained under present conditions show that more than 12% of the study area is inundated by the present-day 100 year return period of water level. Future projections show that, if the present rate of land subsidence continues, by 2050 (under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios), the 0.5 and 100 year return period flood extents will increase by around 15- and 8-fold, respectively, relative to the present-day flood extent. However, without land subsidence, the projected increases in the 0.5 and 100 year return period flood extents by 2050 (under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are limited to between a doubling to tripling of the present-day flood extent. Therefore, adaptation measures that can reduce the rate of land subsidence (e.g., limiting groundwater extraction), would substantially mitigate future flood hazards in the study area. A combination of restricted groundwater extraction and the construction of a new and more efficient urban drainage network would facilitate even further reductions in the flood hazard. The projected 15-fold increase in flood extent projected by 2050 for the twice per year (0.5 year return period) flood event implies that the “do nothing” management approach is not a feasible option for Can Tho.@en

Flooding is one of the most frequently occurring and damaging natural disasters worldwide. Quantitative flood risk management (FRM) in the modern context demands statistically robust approaches (e.g. probabilistic) due to the need to deal with complex uncertainties. However, probabilistic estimates often involve ensemble 2D hydraulic model runs resulting in large computational costs. Additionally, modern FRM necessitates the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders via co-design sessions. This makes it necessary for the flood models, at least at a simplified level, to be understood by and accessible to non-specialists. This study was undertaken to develop a flood modelling system that can provide rapid and sufficiently accurate estimates of flood risk within a methodology that is accessible to a wider range of stakeholders for a coastal city – Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. A web-based hydraulic tool, Inform, was developed based on a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta, flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damages for the urban centre of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), containing the must-have features of a co-design tool (e.g. inbuilt input library, flexible options, easy to use, quick results, user-friendly interface). Inform provides rapid flood risk assessments with quantitative information (e.g. flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages) required for co-designing efforts aimed at flood risk reduction for Ninh Kieu district in the future.@en

Flood risk reduction strategies play an important role in flood risk management (FRM) and these strategies are being co-designed with the engagement of the stakeholder through multiple consultations and co-designing sessions. Effective participation of stakeholders in interactive work sessions requires fast and accurate modeling systems with a user-friendly interface, which can simulate the impact due to various flood reduction measures selected by the stakeholders and also generate outputs that can be understood by all stakeholders, especially those who are not FRM specialists. Presenting an easy-to-understand tool with easy inputs and outputs for a variety of stakeholders and at the same time providing reliable and accurate results for a range of scenarios and interventions is a challenge. Seven requirements that are essential for a user-friendly flood risk tool were used to develop an instant flood risk modeling tool. This paper presents a web-based hydraulic tool, i.e., instant flood risk model (Inform), to support FRM in the urban center of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Inform was developed based on (i) a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta; and (ii) flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damage for Ninh Kieu district in Can Tho city obtained directly from the 1D/2D coupled model for Ninh Kieu district. Inform rapidly generates flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages. Pilot testing with experts confirmed that Inform qualifies as a reliable co-design tool for developing FRM strategies as it features an inbuilt input library, comprises flexible options, easy to use, produces quick results and has a user-friendly interface. With the help of an interactive web-based tool such as Inform presented here, it is possible to co-design FRM strategies for Can Tho or any other city that is subject to flood risk.@en