Performance and Feasibility of Machine Learning for Multi-hazard Humanitarian Forecasting
A literature survey
E. Smura (TU Delft - Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
M.A.T. Roelvink – Mentor (TU Delft - Multimedia Computing)
Cynthia CS Liem – Mentor (TU Delft - Multimedia Computing)
J. Sun – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Pattern Recognition and Bioinformatics)
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Abstract
Natural disasters frequently cause casualties and property losses. Predicting and mitigating the impact of such threats is crucial to the work of humanitarian organizations. The interactions between hazards are best represented through a multi-hazard approach, and machine learning models are well suited for natural hazard prediction. This study presents a systematized literature survey of machine learning in multi-hazard disaster forecasting in the years 2019-2025, focusing on the used models and performance metrics, their applications and feasibility of use, as well as potential cross-applications. There is a wide variety of models and metrics used. The most commonly used models are random forest and support vector machine and the most prevalent performance metric is the ROC-AUC score. The machine learning models generally perform well, with AUC scores above 0.8, though patterns in performance are difficult to examine. Feasibility is defined here as readiness to be used in practice, and the models are rated in the factors that define it. Most of the articles are feasible. Consideration of cross-application is rare and should be extended. This research summarizes the main trends in the field of disaster forecasting, providing a clear reference point for other academics.