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The Problem of Uncertain Contextual Characteristic (PUCC)

does it matter how contextual poverty is measured for the neighbourhood effect estimation?

Journal Article (2026)
Author(s)

Jérôme Francisco Conceicao (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)

Ana Petrović (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)

Maarten van Ham (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)

David Manley (University of Bristol)

Research Group
Urban Studies
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1080/04353684.2026.2675923 Final published version
More Info
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Publication Year
2026
Language
English
Research Group
Urban Studies
Journal title
Geografiska Annaler, Series B: Human Geography
Article number
2675923
Downloads counter
15
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Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of neighbourhood effect estimates to the operationalization of contextual poverty. It introduces the Problem of Uncertain Contextual Characteristic (PUCC), which refers to uncertainty surrounding what is measured and represented when constructing contextual variables, potentially resulting in estimation bias. Using longitudinal micro-data from Dutch population registers (2011–2020), we assess four key parameters when operationalizing poverty: poverty dimensions, reference groups, poverty-line thresholds, and aggregation statistics. We undertake a systematic analysis modelling the effect of each poverty indicator while keeping all other factors constant. We also generate models including different residential context scales and geographies to compare the effects of PUCC with other sources of estimation variation. Results show that the operationalization of contextual poverty substantially influences the estimated neighbourhood effects on individual income. In our analyses, the operationalization of contextual poverty introduced greater variation than the residential context’s scale or the geographical extent of the study. Findings further suggest that PUCC and the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) are closely related, as the impact of contextual poverty measures varies significantly across spatial scales.