ETA prediction

Predicting the ETA of a container vessel based on route identification using AIS data

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Container vessels arriving in a port before or after their scheduled time can cause problems in the container terminal planning and planning of hinterland transportation. This in turn leads to an increase of the costs in the supply chain. Vessels communicate their Estimated Time of Arrival via Automatic Idetification System(AIS) data to the port. This arrival time is estimated by the crew of the vessel and manually inputted into the AIS. In this research a proof of concept is shown that the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction of container vessels can be improved. Vessels en route to the Port of Rotterdam are used as a case study. Different frameworks and algorithms are introduced to improve the data quality of AIS messages, to identify a set of possible routes and to do predictions based on the set of possible routes. It is possible to do predictions based on pre-processed AIS messages and a set of possible routes that perform at the same level as the best guess of a vessel’s crew.