An Integration of Numerical Modeling and Paleoenvironmental Analysis Reveals the Effects of Embankment Construction on Long‐Term Salt Marsh Accretion

Abstract

There are still numerous uncertainties over the influence of anthropogenic interventions on salt marsh dynamics. This study uses the Ribble Estuary as a test case and an integrated approach of numerical modeling and paleoenvironmental analysis to investigate the contribution of embankment construction to long-term marsh accretion. Accretion rates derived using optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL) were combined with a multi-proxy paleoenvironmental investigation on sediment cores extracted from the salt marsh, the mobile seafloor of the central Irish Sea and the river catchment area. These analyses provided a first evolutionary perspective on the Ribble Estuary preceding any management interventions. The paleoenvironmental analyses were then compared to simulations conducted using the hydrodynamic model Delft3D to investigate the effects of embankment construction on estuarine hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of the salt marsh over the period constrained by the OSL. The numerical simulations showed that embankments were responsible for an overall intensification of the ebb currents in the system which promoted sediment export. The paleoenvironmental analyses showed that the marsh has been accreting at a rate of 4.61 to 0.86 cm yr−1 over the last ca. 190 years and that the high sedimentation rate was caused by a naturally high rate of sediment supply. The model-data integration showed that the effects of the embankment construction on sediment transport did not compromise the long-term resilience of the salt marsh because of the high rates of sediment supply and the river dredging which enhanced the flood dominance of the tide near the tidal flat.