Gallium Arsenide Vs. Silicon

Abstract

This research examines how incumbent technologies can maintain their dominant position, focusing on the case of the space solar cell industry. The technological competition is centered around Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) solar cells, currently the benchmark in space applications due to their superior efficiency and radiation resistance, and Silicon (Si) solar cells, which are gaining market traction due to lower production costs and scalability, particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations. The main research question addressed in this thesis is: “What factors contribute to an incumbent technology maintaining its dominance in the space solar cell market?”

Dominant design theory is applied to understand which characteristics and factors enable a technology to retain its position once it has become the industry standard. Meanwhile, disruptive innovation theory is used to examine how incumbent firms can respond to the entry of alternatives that compete on different performance dimensions, such as cost and scalability. After literature research and expert validation, these theories are combined into a unified list of factors, which is applied using the Best- Worst Method (BWM) to perform a quantitative prioritization. The study identifies six critical factors that are most important for maintaining technological dominance. The research also provided a detailed exploration of how each of these factors can be influenced through actionable strategies.

Note: Due to information sensitivity, the interviews have been removed from the appendix.