Powering Uncertain Futures
Robust Long-Term Power Grid Planning under Deep Climate Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study for Indonesia
T.A. de Weijer (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
I. Nikolic – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Stefan Pfenninger – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
H. Aji – Mentor (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
Long-term planning of power infrastructure is central to the energy transition, as new transmission capacity is needed to connect renewable-rich regions with centres of electricity demand. In Indonesia, this challenge is especially relevant because the national long-term electricity plan proposes a supergrid to connect the country's main islands and support decarbonisation until 2060. However, current planning mainly follows a single-path optimisation approach and does not explicitly account for the deeply uncertain effects of climate change. This is problematic because rising temperatures can simultaneously increase electricity demand and reduce the available generation capacity by derating.
This thesis investigates how deeply uncertain impacts of climate change affect Indonesia's long-term power infrastructure plans. It approaches the problem from a Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty perspective, specifically using Robust Decision Making. Rather than assessing whether the planned system performs well in an expected future, the study evaluates whether it remains adequate in many plausible futures, each representing unique combinations of these highly uncertain climate change impacts.
To do so, Calliope energy system models were developed for the Indonesian power system in 2034, 2045, and 2060, using data from Indonesia's state-owned electric utility company PT PLN, the 10-year Electricity Business Plan, the 2060 Long-Term Electricity Plan, and earlier modelling work on power system planning and the energy transition in Indonesia. These models were then used to stress-test different supergrid configurations under uncertain demand increases and capacity derating. Performance was assessed using lost-load hours, levelised system costs, emissions, and regional reserve margins.
The results show that the planned infrastructure performs well from an optimisation perspective, with no lost-load hours in the baseline modelled periods. However, the exploratory analysis reveals that this conclusion becomes fragile under climate stress. Robustness is high in 2034, starts to depend on specific interconnection choices by 2045, and becomes strongly affected by demand increase and derating by 2060. The supergrid therefore acts both as a solution and as a source of vulnerability. Not only does it enable renewable integration, but it also makes system adequacy dependent on a limited number of critical transmission corridors. Reinforcing the Bali--Jawa Timur connection substantially improves robustness, showing that targeted reinforcements can be more valuable than simply maximising all supergrid capacities.
These findings suggest that Indonesia’s long-term power infrastructure plan can remain adequate in many plausible climate futures, but only if critical transmission corridors are identified, reinforced and built in time. The study demonstrates that stress-testing long-term infrastructure plans under deep uncertainty can reveal critical vulnerabilities that single-path optimisation approaches may overlook.