Coarsening coasts

Abstract

Sea level rise, increased storminess, and changes in sediment supply due to nourishments are all expected to drive coarsening (i.e., ‘sandification’) of muddy coastal sediments in the decades to come. Since the composition of soft-bottom benthic communities is associated with the sediment grain-size and mud content, this may result in habitats becoming less suitable for some species, leading to species shifts. Species-sediment relations can help to predict how this foreseen sandification may affect benthic fauna. We explore and quantify the sandification-sensitivity of benthic communities, with a tidal basin in the Dutch Wadden Sea as a model system. We identify the species' sediment optima and tolerance ranges using non-linear quantile regression models, summarise preference and sensitivity at the community level, and determine the difference between optimal and realised sediment habitat. We find that sediment optima are taxon-specific and that most species in this area are sediment generalists. On community level, there is a difference between the preferred and realised sediment habitat. In many areas, the actual inhabited sediment is coarser and sandier than expected based on the preferences of the resident species. Future sandification of the area would further decrease sediment habitat suitability for benthic communities in these places. This detailed knowledge of area-specific sensitivity of benthos can be used to inform coastal management decisions.